KLCI Stock - GAMUDA / 5398 - 2012 Quarter 3

Company Info 

Market Capital (Capital Size)	7,395,591,404 (Very Large)
Par Value	RM 1.00

My Analysis 

Forecast P/E now	(3.56-0.12)/0.2855 = 12.05 (Moderate)
Target Price	3.71+0.12 = 3.83 (PE 13.0, EPS 0.2855, DPS 0.12)
Decision	BUY if MACD rebound whenever still bullish trend
Comment	Revenue decreased 8.2% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 13.6%, eps decreased 0.2% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 17.7%, cash generated from operating enough to cover financing expenses and got cash generated from financing to cover investing expenses, margin getting good, stronger liquidity ratio at moderate level now, lower gearing ratio at above moderate level now, most segment growth
First Support Price	3.44
Second Support Price	3.36
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

Affin Target Price	4.21 (2012-03-29)
HwangDBS Target Price	4.95 (2012-03-29)
MIDF Target Price	4.4 (2012-04-09)
Jupiter Target Price	3.9 (2012-05-16)
Alliance Target Price	4.77 (2012-05-21)
AMMB Target Price	3.79 (2012-06-29)
CIMB Target Price	4.45 (2012-06-29)
ECM Target Price	3.53 (2012-06-29)
HLG Target Price	4.41 (2012-06-29)
Kenanga Target Price	4.64 (2012-06-29)
Maybank Target Price	4.1 (2012-06-29)
OSK Target Price	4.46 (2012-06-29)

Accounting Ratio 

Return on Equity	14.09%
Dividend Yield	3.37%
Gross Profit Margin	0.00%
Operating Profit Margin	22.57%
Net Profit Margin	27.77%
Tax Rate	26.58%
Asset Turnover	0.3735
Net Asset Value Per Share	1.87
Net Tangible Asset per share	1.82
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	1.9
Cash Per Share	0.52
Liquidity Current Ratio	2.2138
Liquidity Quick Ratio	1.2776
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.5443
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.91
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.4632
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	85.9%
Days to sell the inventory	294
Days to collect the receivables	187
Days to pay the payables	123

Technical Analysis 

SMA 20	3.489 (Uptrend 14 days)
SMA 50	3.496 (Same)
SMA 100	3.576 (Downtrend)
SMA 200	3.376 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d)	0.012139 ( 0.003928 )
Signal (9)	0.009571 ( 0.000642 )
MACD Histogram	0.002568 (Bullish trend 1 day)
Bolinger Upper Band	3.651
Bolinger Lower Band	3.327

My notes based on 2012 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- - The increase in profit before taxation from construction division due to higher work progress from the Electrified Double Tracking Project

- The increase in profit before taxation from property division due to higher profits from existing projects in Malaysia and Celadon City’s land sale to Aeon Co. of Japan

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q3 result announced = 4207397*0.145/2137025 = 0.2855, estimate PE on current price 3.56 = 12.05(DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = 4045187*0.145/2123909 = 0.2762, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.85/11.51 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = (0.0626+0.0585)*2 = 0.2422, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.77/12.1 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = (0.0542+0.0585)*2 = 0.2254, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.86/11.85 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.177*1.1 = 0.1947, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.77/12.89 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0439*4*1.05 = 0.1844, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.77/18.71 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0789*2*1.05 = 0.1657, estimate highest/lowest PE = 24.98/20.64 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0371*4*1.1 = 0.1632, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.84/20.47 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0361*4 = 0.1444, estimate highest/lowest PE = 26.73/20.78 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0336*4 = 0.1344, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.14/19.2 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0311*4 = 0.1244, estimate highest/lowest PE = 22.83/19.77 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0215*4 = 0.086, estimate highest/lowest PE = 38.02/30.81 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0231*4 = 0.0924, estimate highest/lowest PE = 36.36/27.81 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0244*4 = 0.0976, estimate highest/lowest PE = 28.59/19.26 (DPS 0.08)

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