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Saturday, July 14, 2012

KLCI Stock - DAYANG / 5141 - 2012 Quarter 1

Company Info 
Market Capital (Capital Size)1,061,500,000 (Large)
Par ValueRM 0.50

My Analysis 
Forecast P/E now(1.93-0.1)/0.1325 = 13.81 (Moderate)
Target Price1.86+0.1 = 1.96 (PE 14.0, EPS 0.1325, DPS 0.1)
DecisionNot interested unless stock price very strong sustain and uptrend whenever MACD bullish
Comment
Revenue decreased 24.5% and was second consecutive quarter decreasing and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 10.2%, eps increased 24.9% but lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 19.2%, cash generated from operating enough to cover financing expenses but still spent 4.5% of Group cash to cover investing expenses, margin still good, slghtly weaker liquidity ratio but still at high level now, higher gearing ratio at below moderate level now, higher debt ratio but still less than 30%, all collection/repayment period is acceptable
First Support Price1.86
Second Support Price1.75
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
RHB Target Price2.07 (2012-01-19)
HwangDBS Target Price2.5 (2012-05-23)
OSK Target Price2.26 (2012-05-23)

Accounting Ratio 
Return on Equity21.06%
Dividend Yield5.18%
Gross Profit Margin38.51%
Operating Profit Margin26.02%
Net Profit Margin26.95%
Tax Rate22.03%
Asset Turnover0.545
Net Asset Value Per Share0.91
Net Tangible Asset per share0.91
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share2.2
Cash Per Share0.45
Liquidity Current Ratio3.5079
Liquidity Quick Ratio3.4928
Liquidity Cash Ratio2.2313
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.3654
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.2676
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale74.9%
Days to sell the inventory3
Days to collect the receivables137
Days to pay the payables153

Technical Analysis 
SMA 201.944 (Downtrend 15 days)
SMA 501.982 (Downtrend)
SMA 1002.027 (Downtrend)
SMA 2001.892 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d)-0.019493 ( 0.001665 )
Signal (9)-0.022759 ( 0.000817 )
MACD Histogram0.003266 (Bullish trend 3 days)
Bolinger Upper Band2.046
Bolinger Lower Band1.842

My notes based on 2012 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Lower revenue mainly due to inclement weather resulting in lower value of work orders received and performed in the current quarter for the topside maintenance services, the hook-up commissioning and maintenance services and the marine segment

- Higher pbt than FY11Q4 due to higher profit margin and demobilisation costs were incurred for a contract nearing its expiry and also new mobilisation costs were incurred in anticipation of the award of new contract in the preceding quarter

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 502299*0.145/549700 = 0.1325, estimate PE on current price 1.93 = 13.81(DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 523694*0.15/530333 = 0.1481, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.52/12.15 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.187, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.07/8.88 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.0442+0.0354)*2*1.1 = 0.1751, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.57/7.48 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0354*4*1.2 = 0.1699, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.89/9.3 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0326(17927/550000)*4*1.1 = 0.1434, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.06/12.9 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0526*4*1.1 = 0.2314, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.22/12.14 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1239*1.1 = 0.1363 (0.1239 is recent 4Q cum_eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.94/14.16 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.129/4(average eps from recent 4Q)*0.9 = 0.1161 (10% drop year-to-year), estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.67/12.79 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1237*0.9 = 0.1113(10% drop year-to-year), estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.14/14.82 (DPS 0.05, correction to last Q estimated)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.1246, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.21/9.71 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.1548, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.98/6.91 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.1338, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.67/3.73 (DPS 0.14)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.15, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.87/ (DPS 0.14)

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