KLCI Stock - KNM / 7164 - 2012 Quarter 1

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	755,824,907 (Medium)
Par Value	RM 1.00

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	0.755/0.133 = 5.68 (Moderate)
Target Price	0.133*10.0 = 1.33 (PE 10.0, EPS 0.133)
Decision	BUY if stock price can sustain above 0.75 and got very strong buy volume than sell or wait after rights issues
Comment	Revenue increased 1% and was second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 41.8%, eps increased 1054.8% and was second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 84.5%, no cash generated from any of cash flow hence spent 48.3% of Group cash to cover all expenses, weaker liquidity ratio at weak level now, lower gearing ratio but still at high level now, lower debt ratio, all repayment period is good, stronger order book
First Support Price	0.75
Second Support Price	0.7
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

MIDF Target Price	0.78 (2012-02-29)
RHB Target Price	0.68 (2012-04-03)
AMMB Target Price	0.75 (2012-05-23)
HwangDBS Target Price	0.7 (2012-05-23)
Kenanga Target Price	0.73 (2012-05-23)
Maybank Target Price	0.88 (2012-05-23)
OSK Target Price	0.8 (2012-05-23)
Jupiter Target Price	0.88 (2012-05-24)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	-3.89%
Dividend Yield	-
Gross Profit Margin	0.00%
Operating Profit Margin	4.83%
Net Profit Margin	2.73%
Tax Rate	-
Asset Turnover	0.5637
Net Asset Value Per Share	1.66
Net Tangible Asset per share	0.24
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	2.98
Cash Per Share	0.23
Liquidity Current Ratio	0.8632
Liquidity Quick Ratio	0.4904
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.138
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	1.3578
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.5748
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	-10.3%
Days to sell the inventory	98
Days to collect the receivables	186
Days to pay the payables	141

Technical Analysis

SMA 20	0.782 (Downtrend 26 days)
SMA 50	0.84 (Downtrend)
SMA 100	0.919 (Downtrend)
SMA 200	1.106 (Downtrend)
MACD (26d/12d)	-0.033071 ( 0.002349 )
Signal (9)	-0.033106 ( 9e-06 )
MACD Histogram	0.000035 (Bullish trend 1 day)
Bolinger Upper Band	0.9
Bolinger Lower Band	0.664

My notes based on 2012 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue due to higher job recognition on stronger order book

- Asia & Oceanic Segment saw significant improvement on contribution from projects’ progress. Competition on conventional low end process equipment in 2012 has lessen

- Europe Segment profitability improved on higher project revenue recognition and better contribution margin

- Americas Segment - Brazil operations continue to suffer loss due to difficult local business environment. Meanwhile, North America operations have improved significantly on the back of positive earnings contribution from Canadian oil sands projects

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 1625722*0.08/977848 = 0.133, estimate PE on current price 0.755 = 5.68
- No estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced due to loss
- No estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced due to loss
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0889*0.9 = 0.08, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.63/13.75(DPS 0.02)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = (0.0194+0.021)*2*1.1 = 0.0889, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.65/12.26 (DPS 0.02)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0655*2*1.1 = 0.1441, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.12/15.68 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0089*4*1.2 = 0.0427(use VAT 15%, include incoming new contract), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.36/10.54
- No estimate for next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced
- No estimate for next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced
- No estimate for next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0081*4 = 0.0324, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.67/9.39 (DPS 0.015)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0181*4 = 0.0724, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.67/9.39 (DPS 0.015)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0250*4 = 0.1, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.45/7
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.0214*4 = 0.0856, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.7/3.56 (DPS 0.015)

KNM latest news (English)

KNM Latest news (Chinese)