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Wednesday, November 14, 2012

KLCI Stock - AMWAY / 6351 - 2012 Quarter 3

AMWAY (MALAYSIA) HOLDINGS BERHAD


Company Description
AMWAY (MALAYSIA) HOLDINGS BERHAD is an investment holding company. Through its, the Company is principally engaged in the distribution of consumer products under the Amway trademark. Amway offers a range of brands from nutritional supplements to water treatment, cosmetics to cleaning products. Amway's major brand is the NUTRILITE. NUTRILITE is a global vitamin and mineral brand, which grows, harvests and processes plants on their own certified organic farms. Under ARTISTRY, Amway supplies facial skin care products and color cosmetics. The Company's SATINIQUE products focus on hair care. Amway's other product brands include eSpring and iCook. The eSpring Water Purifier is an in-home system to combine ultraviolet light technology with a multi-stage carbon-block filter to provide drinking water. iCook offers a range of Cookware products. The Company also offers home care products.

Company Info 
Listing Date1996-08-30
Market Capital (Capital Size)1,962,764,601 (Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00
BoardMain
SectorTrading/Services
Major IndustryDirect Selling
Sub IndustryMiscellaneous Products
Websitehttp://www.amway.com

My Analysis 
Forecast P/E now(11.94-0.7)/0.6585 = 17.07 (Moderate)
Target Price11.85+0.7 = 12.55 (PE 18.0, EPS 0.6585, DPS 0.7)
DecisionBUY for dividend keep unless stock price slump
Comment
Revenue increased 18.8% and was second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 6%, eps increased 5.2% and was second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 3.3%, cash generated from operating mre than enough to cover all expenses, gross margin still maintain very high above 30%, liquidity ratio indicate good position to meet current obligation and dividend, gearing ratio not much increase which also limit the expand, all accounting turnover period is good
First Support Price11.9
Second Support Price10.7
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
OSK Target Price11.45 (2012-08-09)
Kenanga Target Price11.68 (2012-08-29)
RHB Target Price11.05 (2012-08-29)
TA Target Price12.11 (2012-08-29)

Accounting Ratio 
Return on Equity50.03%
Dividend Yield5.86%
Gross Profit Margin30.85%
Operating Profit Margin15.90%
Net Profit Margin15.90%
Tax Rate25.27%
Asset Turnover2.3497
Net Asset Value Per Share1.33
Net Tangible Asset per share1.3
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share9.18
Cash Per Share0.98
Liquidity Current Ratio2.1695
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.6546
Liquidity Cash Ratio1.4488
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.5108
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.3381
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale16.8%
Days to sell the inventory40
Days to collect the receivables11
Days to pay the payables70

Technical Analysis 
SMA 1012.048 (Downtrend)
SMA 2012.207 (Downtrend 3 days)
SMA 5011.535 (Uptrend)
SMA 10010.752 (Uptrend)
SMA 20010.13 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d)0.10444 ( 0.019934 )
Signal (9)0.194046 ( 0.022402 )
MACD Histogram0.089606 (Bearish trend 11 days)
Bolinger Upper Band13.304
Bolinger Lower Band11.11

My notes based on 2012 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt mainly attributable to the success of sales and marketing programs

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q3 result announced = 98412*1.1/164386 = 0.6585, estimate PE on current price 11.94 = 17.07(DPS 0.7)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = 97553*1.15/164386 = 0.6825, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.58/14.62 (DPS 0.7)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 91247*1.1/164386 = 0.6106, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.87/14.58 (DPS 0.7)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 192322*0.46/164386 = 0.5382, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.35/16.09 (DPS 0.66)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.5072*1.05 = 0.5326, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.57/15.64 (DPS 0.62)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.4988*0.95 = 0.4739, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.23/16.33 (DPS 0.62)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.5142*0.97 = 0.4988, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.4/16.32 (DPS 0.66)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.4761*1.08 = 0.5142, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.64/14.86 (DPS 0.66)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.3335+(0.1246*1.2) = 0.5497, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.21/13.46 (DPS 0.64)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.3335+(0.1246*1.2) = 0.5497, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.04/13.43 (DPS 0.52)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.3261+(0.099*1.1) = 0.4676(Correction to preceding Q estimated), estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.3/14.71 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0996*4 = 0.3984, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.62/16.99 (DPS 0.48)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.1246*4 = 0.4984, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.98/13.46 (DPS 0.48)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.099*4 = 0.396, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.6/16.92 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.118*4 = 0.472, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.79/13.73 (DPS 0.52)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.1332*4 = 0.5328, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.06/11.75 (DPS 0.54)

AMWAY latest news (English)

AMWAY latest news (Chinese)

USD/MYR foreign exchange chart

Financial Quarter Summary
a_dateyearqrth_pricel_pricedivroec_roerevc_revpbtc_pbtprofc_profepsc_epsassetc_assetliabc_liabminoequicfocficffcashfcfnetfinalsharec_sharem_capdategros_moper_mprof_mvatasset_tpenavpsntapsp/ntapscpsl_curl_quil_cashg_deg_daavg_winv_drec_dpay_d
2012-11-1420123N/AN/A0.113.85%38.22%224159592094356379881626632735130.16200.4472329604241756111433111433-21817196497194560204123209984423823816144716438616438619627682012-09-3030.85%15.90%15.90%25.27%2.3497-1.331.39.180.982.16951.65461.44880.51080.338116.8%401170
2012-08-272012212.710.680.113.17%24.38%188684367935341606317925320468810.15400.2852326219235640118252118252-20796775086138941756123231764753471915795016438616438617918072012-06-3033.52%18.10%18.10%25.88%2.3353-1.271.248.790.961.99271.42961.33570.56860.362515.4%48575
2012-05-302012111.09.60.111.21%11.21%179251179251290192901921561215610.13120.1312310237221162111118111118-199119241165724532123231246882015614338716438616438615945442012-03-3131.93%16.19%16.19%25.70%2.3927-1.211.188.220.871.99031.40881.29040.5580.358214.8%47675
2012-02-152011410.09.320.0911.81%42.67%1823757358183355212098624899899590.15150.5472305960214018113638113638-192322930492436108967136683954851348212320116438616438616109822011-12-3133.61%18.40%18.40%25.79%2.404917.9081.171.148.60.751.88331.28061.08420.59090.371413.6%511178
2011-11-16201139.988.950.3912.22%30.86%211518553443344218743425773650600.15680.3958347400248276115901115901-23149986768175040225136810885184829318510316438616438614860492011-09-3034.76%16.27%16.27%25.12%2.123-1.411.386.551.132.14211.70391.59710.50070.333617.9%37679
2011-08-10201129.268.360.099.02%18.63%169162341925256455301319014392870.11570.2390345558243124125040125040-2205185575147119591136810562223663117344116438616438614794742011-06-3030.14%15.16%15.16%25.86%2.0764-1.341.316.871.061.94441.48591.38710.5670.361816.5%43687
2011-05-11201119.848.80.099.62%9.62%172763172763273682736820273202730.12330.1233331854230657115538115538-216316371111023938136814370093307116988516438616438615994752011-03-3132.31%15.84%15.84%25.92%2.1596-1.321.297.541.031.99641.56311.47040.53410.348216.1%37583
2011-02-16201049.738.30.097.70%32.93%1841047194092801510914918308782720.11140.4761321282219914110455110455-210827941701292114476158394928782159813679616438616438613644032010-12-3133.03%15.22%15.22%34.65%2.239217.43161.281.256.640.831.9911.47181.23850.52390.343815.2%421379
2010-11-15201039.08.040.399.05%25.23%191500535305288018113421506599640.13080.3648393987282997137365137365-2566221094209006410961569611004145931821627916438616438613545402010-09-3030.51%15.04%15.04%25.33%1.795-1.561.535.391.322.06021.65291.57450.53530.348720.6%41694
2010-08-05201028.247.90.099.14%16.18%168316343805299735233321721384580.13210.2339373433267759123523123523-24991061578460826302157898569703066818856616438616438613150882010-06-3031.14%17.81%17.81%27.53%1.8493-1.521.495.371.152.16771.61781.52660.49430.330820.9%50686
2010-05-19201018.127.380.097.04%7.04%175489175489223602236016737167370.10180.1018368556267746125495125495-243061336934711507158361336462213918050016438616438612246752010-03-3127.87%12.74%12.74%25.15%1.833-1.481.455.141.12.13351.55041.43830.51630.340521.1%55892
2010-02-24200947.57.270.076.98%30.91%171898663902223339887416380725430.09960.44133351512343629743597435-237716455392714482036221998183956364115835716438616438612098802009-12-3127.97%12.99%12.99%26.66%1.980916.67811.451.425.180.962.40531.72551.62530.40990.290720.6%51573
2009-11-17200937.457.190.278.73%23.93%174874492004283467654120485561630.12460.3417396801292577131013131013-26578868230378703896322107030360860321246716438616438612065932009-09-3028.65%16.21%16.21%27.73%1.673-1.621.594.621.292.23321.69271.62170.49290.330224.3%55596
2009-08-19200927.477.20.076.93%15.20%153313317130222024819516276356780.09900.2170390544308278133729133729-256815544682017323014220493342951128123177416438616438612000172009-06-3030.11%14.48%14.48%26.69%1.7274-1.561.534.771.412.30521.79821.73320.52070.342425.9%525100
2009-05-13200917.57.00.078.27%8.27%163817163817259932599319402194020.11800.1180378633302165136047136047-242586417421174915064220790299931492923571916438616438612164562009-03-3129.33%15.87%15.87%25.36%1.7549-1.481.455.11.432.2211.79491.73260.56080.359325.0%465101
2009-02-23200847.56.80.079.69%42.09%1718476454583029112924921889950950.13320.5785353716292411118991113577-234725959121737959538203246785331899522224116438616438611671402008-12-3128.58%17.63%17.63%27.74%1.824812.27341.431.45.071.352.57462.09211.95670.50690.336427.7%45688
2008-11-10200837.36.60.2913.49%32.40%185659473611412769895830477732060.18540.4453382227327523115877115877-266350105947747427507201706984737096627267216438616438610849472008-09-3032.01%22.23%22.23%26.16%1.6399-1.621.594.151.662.82652.39242.35310.43510.303233.8%43390
2008-07-30200826.96.10.099.63%18.91%143155287952293765768221762427290.13240.2599349455304533102634102634-24682166152137222274201706647804250624421216438616438611342632008-06-3031.31%20.52%20.52%25.92%1.7314-1.51.474.691.492.96722.46312.37940.41580.293733.4%46580
2008-05-21200817.06.60.099.28%9.28%144797144797283062830620967209670.12750.1275342216298072106209106209-236007468586615761201706461974043624214216438616438611424822008-03-3131.52%19.55%19.55%25.93%1.7145-1.441.414.931.472.80652.3752.27990.450.310432.7%42686
2008-02-25200747.36.30.0913.76%44.79%1531875842513658112031227004879120.16430.53483078092677668189581895-225914766891952061664167078962093454520162316438616438611013862007-12-3130.90%23.88%23.88%26.18%1.898112.52831.371.354.961.233.26962.69582.4620.36250.266131.8%431266
2007-11-19200736.86.20.32513.41%31.03%163894431064356428373126315609080.16010.37053316122859369368893688-23792474928515830279167107800864980721691416438616438610767282007-09-3032.14%21.75%21.75%26.17%1.7361-1.451.424.611.323.0522.47442.31530.39380.282533.4%49978
2007-08-20200726.76.50.0759.01%17.62%124852267170245044808917689345930.10760.21043060032585478539485394-22060948421326121672167107516823001019711716438616438611260442007-06-3032.22%19.63%19.63%27.81%1.7974-1.341.315.231.23.02772.41452.30830.38710.279131.5%49673
2007-05-0320071N/AN/A0.0758.61%8.61%142318142318235852358516904169040.10280.10282919222460298000380003-21191930508161910217167107321272191018901716438616438611013862007-03-3129.62%16.57%16.57%28.33%1.9057-1.291.265.321.153.07522.43972.36260.37750.274129.8%46469
2006-11-2020064N/AN/A0.075N/AN/A144635582811246038899017696639680.10760.38912810852339048478884788-196297567971799464720164710747911007117478116438616438610685092006-09-3028.38%15.87%17.01%28.07%2.073416.70381.191.175.561.062.75872.22992.06260.43190.301625.6%38969
2006-08-0320063N/AN/A0.275N/AN/A138199438176200806438714426462720.08780.28152922752322887652376523-21575235218435929170164710395771040717511716438616438610520702006-06-3026.85%13.59%14.53%28.16%1.4992-1.311.285.01.073.03552.46192.28970.35470.261835.5%501184
2006-04-2620062N/AN/A0.075N/AN/A131156299977200104430714311318460.08710.19372809152305667071370713-2102029051232426438164710114191501914969116438616438610356312006-03-3126.57%14.29%15.26%28.48%1.0679-1.281.255.040.913.26062.56472.11830.33640.251753.3%-38N/A
2006-01-2020061N/AN/A0.1N/AN/A168821168821242972429717535175350.10670.10672676652188045996859968-2076971645511108887716468053471422415045616438616438610767282005-12-3126.19%13.33%14.39%27.83%0.6307-1.261.235.330.923.64872.87082.51060.28870.22494.1%-47N/A

Financial Quarter Balance Sheet
yearqrtDeferred tax assets (A-0)Intangible assets (A-0)Property, plant and equipment (A-0)Amount due from associated companies (A-1)Cash and cash equivalents (A-1)Current tax assets (A-1)Inventories (A-1)Prepaid lease payments (A-1)Trade receivables (A-1)Deferred tax liabilities (L-0)Amount due to associated companies (L-1)Current tax liabilities (L-1)Derivative financial liabilities (L-1)Trade and other payables (L-1)
201236693478276373-161447-57384-22925--10720-100713
201228178478277619-157950-66592-11098--14468-103784
201214884478279409-143387-64622-13153--8149-102969
201146025478281135-123201-68495-22322--8283-105355
201137978478286364-185103-50792-12381--8315-107586
201129318478288334-173441-57325-12358--7779-117261
201116608478289807-169885-50063-10709--406915111454
201045586478291000-136796-57344-25774--3089-107366
2010311548478294660-216279-55941-10777--8602528128235
2010210406478290486-188566-67929-11264--7366403115754
201019720478286308-180500-73182-14064--37421769119984
200949207478286800-158357-66238-9767--3423-94012
2009311794478287648-212467-70811-9299--6870-124143
200928287478269197-231774-67810-8694--4883-128846
2009111490478260196-235719-57973-8473--8477-127570
200849037478247486-222241541454795-99615414-6458-107119
2008311375478238547-272672-50297-4554--9497-106380
2008212265478227875-244212-51738-8583--11330-91304
2008113795478225567-242142-45830-10100--11512-94697
2007411757478223504-201623-46997-19146--9076-72819
2007311990478228904-216914-5411132314588--8666-85022
2007213208478229466-197117-523593238748--7081-78313
2007111116478229995-189017-508483235841--4310-75693
20064110704782313291579174881-44838-12606-43604699-75729
20063111474782440581634175218-43899-11537-28142771-70938
20062966547823590210829149792-49208-20737-5865840-64008
20061729047823678912044150558-46648-9554-14061119-57443

Financial Quarter Income Statement
yearqrtRevenueIncome tax expenseCost of salesOther incomeAdministrative/Operating expensesFinance/interest incomeSelling and distribution costs
201232241599005155017133825714-9129
201221886848840125444109721078-9099
201211792517458122017104221147-8110
201141823758653121071145519349-9858
201132115188648137986132731779-8659
20112169162663111817192817134-9140
201111727637095116951110521383-8166
201041841049707123293142325249-8970
20103191500729513306811920998-8752
20102168316825211589962315669-7398
201011754895623126574130418099-7152
20094171898595312381775918427-8080
200931748747861124774104016105-6689
2009215331359261071439117649-6410
20091163817659111577084616323-6577
200841718478402122737311714057-7879
2008318565910799126221449716547-6112
20082143155761498340186612794-4511
20081144797733999164116113671-4817
200741531879577105846877615197-4339
200731638949327111211214914137-5053
20072124852681584624184213224-4342
200711423186681100158100414461-5118
2006414463569071035831841333816554950
2006313819956541010961691338112994772
200621311565699963026441081912644645
2006116882167621246073851593017986170

Short form reference
a_date = announcement date, yr = financial year end, qrt = quarter
h_price = stock highest price during the quarter, l_price = stock lowest price during the quarter
div = dividend recommend or declare in the quarter, roe = return on equity
c_roe = cumulative of return on equity during the financial year
rev = revenue in the current quarter, c_rev = cumulative of revenue during the financial year
pbt = profit before tax in the current quarter, c_pbt = cumulative of profit before tax during the financial year
eps = earnings per share in the current quarter, c_eps = cumulative of earnings per share during the financial year
asset = total asset, liab = total liability, mino = minority interest, equi = total equity
cfo = net cash flow from operating activities, cfi = net cash flow from investing activities
cff = net cash flow from financing activities, cash = cash and cash equivalents as at beginning of financial year
final = cash and cash equivalents as at current financial period ended
share = diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares
c_share = cumulative of diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares during the financial year
m_cap = market capital at announcement date of quarterly report, date = current financial period ended date
prof_m = profit margin, vat = income tax rate, pe = price earning per share ratio of recent four quarter
navps = net asset value per share, ntaps = net tangible asset per share, cps = cash per share
l_cur = liquidity current ratio, l_qui = liquidity quick ratio, l_cash = liquidity cash ratio
g_de = gearing debt to equity ratio, g_da = gearing debt to assets ratio
avg_w = average working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
inv_d = average days to sell the inventory, rec_d = Average days to collect the receivables


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