Sponsor by Innity

Sponsor by cwyeoh

Sponsor by Nuffnang

Saturday, November 17, 2012

KLCI Stock - BAT / 4162 - 2012 Quarter 3

BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO (M) BERHAD


Company Description
BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO (M) BERHAD provides day-to-day management and administrative services to its subsidiaries, which are principally engaged in the manufacture, importation and sale of cigarettes, pipe tobaccos and cigars. The Company's portfolio includes brands, such as Dunhill, Kent, Pall Mall, Benson & Hedges and Perilly’s. Its subsidiaries include Commercial Importers and Distributors Sdn. Bhd., which is engaged in investment holding; Commercial Marketers and Distributors Sdn. Bhd., which is engaged in the marketing and importation of cigarettes, pipe tobaccos and cigars; Rothmans Brands Sdn. Bhd., which is engaged holding trademarks; The Leaf Tobacco Development Corporation of Malaya Sdn. Bhd., which is engaged in the development and purchase of tobacco leaf; Tobacco Blenders and Manufacturers Sdn. Bhd., which provides warehousing space, and Tobacco Importers and Manufacturers Sdn. Bhd., which manufactures and sells cigarettes and other tobacco related products.

Company Info 
Listing Date1961-10-27
Market Capital (Capital Size)17,057,562,200 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 0.50
BoardMain
SectorConsumer Products
Major IndustryTobacco
Websitehttp://www.batmalaysia.com

My Analysis 
Forecast P/E now(59.74-2.6)/2.8613 = 19.97 (Moderate)
Target Price58.94+2.6 = 61.54 (PE 20.6, EPS 2.8613, DPS 2.6)
DecisionNot interested unless Bolinger lower form an uptrend line or wait rebound at lower price
Comment
Revenue increased 8.6% and was third consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 5%, eps decreased 15.9% but lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 5.3%, cash generated from operating not enough to cover financing expenses hence spent 91.6% of Group cash to cover all other expenses, gross margin in downtrend from 38% to 33%, low liquidity ratio indicate effectively operating but low cash may decrease the dividend, high gearing ratio indicate Group effectively operating, all accounting turnover period is good which can generate free cash flow for dividend, high inventory and higher revenue can indicate products demand still strong
First Support Price56.48
Second Support Price49.7
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
Affin Target Price56 (2012-10-22)
Alliance Target Price49.6 (2012-10-24)
AMMB Target Price56.6 (2012-10-24)
CIMB Target Price64.7 (2012-10-24)
HwangDBS Target Price60 (2012-10-24)
Kenanga Target Price66.3 (2012-10-24)
Maybank Target Price54 (2012-10-24)
MIDF Target Price56.52 (2012-10-24)
OSK Target Price56.22 (2012-10-24)
RHB Target Price63.9 (2012-10-24)
TA Target Price59.04 (2012-10-24)
HLG Target Price52.42 (2012-11-09)

Accounting Ratio 
Return on Equity176.04%
Dividend Yield4.35%
Gross Profit Margin33.70%
Operating Profit Margin22.14%
Net Profit Margin21.55%
Tax Rate25.72%
Asset Turnover2.968
Net Asset Value Per Share1.66
Net Tangible Asset per share0.22
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share295.45
Cash Per Share0.09
Liquidity Current Ratio0.9089
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.3948
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.04
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio2.0321
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.6702
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale-1.4%
Days to sell the inventory44
Days to collect the receivables19
Days to pay the payables35

Technical Analysis 
SMA 1059.4 (Downtrend)
SMA 2061.469 (Downtrend 9 days)
SMA 5061.381 (Downtrend)
SMA 10059.833 (Uptrend)
SMA 20055.68 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d)-0.903298 ( 0.07086 )
Signal (9)-0.44883 ( 0.113617 )
MACD Histogram0.454468 (Bearish trend 10 days)
Bolinger Upper Band66.668
Bolinger Lower Band56.27

My notes based on 2012 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue due to higher contract manufacturing volume and the change from toll to full contract manufacturing

- Higher pbt than FY11Q3 due to higher contract manufacturing and lower operating expenses. Permanent operating expense reductions of RM39mn are generated by the movement of distribution costs above gross revenue, absence of merchandising depreciation, and net impact of non-recurring items i.e. cost to migrate distribution model, charges relating to accounts-related matters and reforestation impairment. RM20mn improvement in the year on year operating expenses is attributed to semi variable items, management incentives, performance based sales and distribution incentives but offset by higher IT costs. Balance of RM8mn improvement is caused by timing of marketing expenditures

- Lower pbt than FY12Q2 mainly due to higher operating expenses

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q3 result announced = 0.6503*4*1.1 = 2.8613, estimate PE on current price 59.74 = 19.97(DPS 2.6)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = 473510*1.8/285530 = 2.985, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.9/18.29 (DPS 2.6)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 431735*1.7/285530 = 2.7636, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.91/17.42 (DPS 2.85)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 438386*1.8/285530 = 2.5705, estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.04/19.02 (DPS 2.76)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = (0.6173+0.6449)*2*1.05 = 2.6506, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.77/15.45 (DPS 2.76)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 1.2703*2 = 2.5406, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.43/15.74 (DPS 2.7)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.6254*4 = 2.5016, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.43/17.2 (DPS 2.4)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.5977*4*0.95 = 2.2713, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.36/18.67 (DPS 2.41)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 2.4323(7% drop from 2.6154), estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.56/16.8 (DPS 2.36)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 2.4323(7% drop from 2.6154), estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.53/16.31 (DPS 2.36)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 2.4323, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.82/16.06 (DPS 2.36)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 2.4323, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.99/16.1 (DPS 2.35)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 2.8448, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.36/14.54 (DPS 2.65)

BAT latest news (English)

BAT latest news (Chinese)


Financial Quarter Summary
a_dateyearqrth_pricel_pricedivroec_roerevc_revpbtc_pbtprofc_profepsc_epsassetc_assetliabc_liabminoequicfocficffcashfcfnetfinalsharec_sharem_capdategros_moper_mprof_mvatasset_tpenavpsntapsp/ntapscpsl_curl_quil_cashg_deg_daavg_winv_drec_dpay_d
2012-10-2320123N/AN/A0.6543.01%139.21%116005532708042499808082631856736010310.65032.10501434678588971961512647987-4731664259152033068633130664740558528074625901285530285530185594502012-09-3033.70%22.14%21.55%25.72%2.968-1.660.22295.450.090.90890.39480.042.03210.6702-1.4%441935
2012-07-192012265.057.20.6551.15%96.21%106798721107492967205582832208484153580.77351.454716615168162451188006880603-473510363181758838776930664735559332176274471285530285530161952612012-06-3034.51%28.42%27.78%25.57%2.5293-1.660.22257.820.960.92690.54360.31172.50890.715-1.5%461850
2012-04-232012157.8851.00.6545.05%45.05%104276210427622615622615621945091945090.68120.681215481056977051109719803630-43838618704193220217330664718610916064290583285530285530158469152012-03-3135.22%25.74%25.08%25.64%2.6987-1.540.09616.671.020.86820.58010.36162.53140.7168-2.5%321544
2012-02-162011456.8451.640.6636.83%146.73%98726541272452288329562681806487196150.63272.520315674637065311135728831278-4317358079915117480679335662375681749976306647285530285530149332192011-12-3138.13%23.88%23.18%21.06%2.633120.75171.510.07747.141.070.84990.61780.36892.63060.7246-3.0%271850
2011-10-202011352.543.70.635.94%109.90%110452531399802393107274361762695389670.61731.887615424937253741118558821703-423935597624331563238535662359430938076318547285530285530124491082011-09-3035.07%22.29%21.67%26.34%2.6575-1.480.041090.01.120.88280.64210.38772.63850.7252-2.3%271848
2011-07-212011246.9842.70.937.55%73.96%104330620354552477984881251841403626970.64491.270316441478225171140771445372-503376415456464936299035662342010557115413738285530285530131914862011-06-3035.68%24.41%23.75%25.69%2.4257-1.760.32144.371.451.84681.34510.9292.26620.69389.5%321749
2011-04-212011148.545.420.636.41%36.41%9921499921492403272403271785571785570.62540.625415710147422201079721384684-491293168716106119166935662316977721892334731285530285530135569642011-03-3135.89%24.90%24.22%25.70%2.5072-1.720.28169.571.171.92941.35280.87012.19770.68739.1%331744
2011-02-222010449.4444.820.6341.60%166.43%95916339654482284269591811827217311110.63992.560515691467305721078720382798-49042687592421741709728168686897665187937356623285530285530132257492010-12-3136.51%24.54%23.82%20.01%2.527118.08991.720.28165.431.251.90851.40280.93162.19960.68758.8%291747
2010-10-202010348.6644.00.6438.85%124.84%99359130062852225787307541706545483890.59771.920615589737336741072103365403-486870694335764525096168686693571168475337161285530285530137054402010-09-3036.49%23.10%22.40%23.33%2.5833-1.710.26184.621.182.00781.45990.92272.2020.68779.1%291642
2010-07-222010249.9443.221.1342.31%85.99%99387420126942500485081761858403777350.65091.322917565568945011119036415173-6375205134988368188772168686521866333094501780285530285530125576092010-06-3038.38%25.85%25.16%25.68%2.2503-2.230.7955.671.762.15451.63011.20861.75530.637112.1%331644
2010-04-222010145.042.02-43.68%43.68%101882010188202581272581271918941918940.67210.672116988808187441070873367545-628007272829363511743168686276464264721433407285530285530122149732010-03-3138.74%26.00%25.34%25.66%2.3172-2.20.7656.291.522.22761.65471.17921.70520.630311.5%321643
2010-02-112009445.741.420.6242.53%183.72%1020950392342122789610053121728657467840.60542.615414421305519441002845300050-4392859242407363574130659387850605109299168686285530285530120208132009-12-3138.20%23.05%22.32%24.15%2.720616.09681.540.1421.00.591.83951.12540.56222.28290.69546.4%331534
2009-11-192009346.141.50.6141.02%141.19%91919729024712345027774161667345739190.58392.010016027367211441161635463341-4411016892071838441304959387670823257774317161285530285530128716922009-09-3040.55%26.29%25.51%28.90%2.4364-1.540.1450.81.111.55641.05290.68452.63350.72486.6%361638
2009-07-232009249.1244.01.1349.51%100.17%97764819832742701315429142012444071850.70481.42611545738686004948722499228-5970165201391660433099059387536743205753265140285530285530127774672009-06-3038.56%28.30%27.63%25.50%2.6417-2.090.6568.850.931.37410.90250.53111.58910.61384.6%351534
2009-04-232009145.7541.0-50.66%50.66%100562610056262727832727832059412059410.72130.721317064908310141093745644663-61274523384818554807859387252402244324303711285530285530128488502009-03-3140.24%27.79%27.13%24.50%2.414-2.150.764.291.061.28910.84180.47111.7850.64094.5%431943
2009-02-192008447.043.750.7649.98%234.65%1002447413522021579610811661728748116830.60542.842714873125964051080833632249-40647995475086954879075706668677961127959387285530285530125633202008-12-3139.55%22.27%21.53%19.89%2.780315.47811.42-0.02-2200.00.210.94330.58750.09392.6590.7267-0.9%332342
2008-10-232008346.040.50.7667.13%184.67%109771631327733156258653702322176388090.81332.237315400306677831089160474319-450870792725499016561397066674282486685157351285530285530117781122008-09-3041.48%29.37%28.75%26.43%2.65-1.580.14294.640.551.40790.86620.33172.41570.70724.7%391840
2008-07-172008242.538.751.1356.43%117.54%101364720350572646035497451951884065920.68361.424016672357888541125963511166-5412725321881509132527970666517097191818262484285530285530117781122008-06-3040.20%26.79%26.10%26.23%2.3942-1.90.4591.670.921.54321.03280.51352.08020.67537.0%402045
2008-04-222008145.2540.75-61.11%61.11%102141010214102851422851422114042114040.74040.740416133977306211056051341682-557346288739246510807770666286274178197248863285530285530124205552008-03-3140.18%28.60%27.92%25.86%2.4266-1.950.5185.290.872.13831.450.72831.89480.65469.9%371938
2008-02-212007444.041.00.7427.50%132.64%948236383086920812710029011517467319310.53152.563414470085485361101096387529-3459128373311798793596718728981934411662370666285530285530120636422007-12-3139.39%23.07%21.95%27.09%2.647416.48191.21-0.23-183.70.251.41550.78590.18243.18320.76094.2%391837
2007-10-242007344.7539.251.037.12%105.14%100841128826332806077947742048435801850.71742.032018643359566601461766750442-4025696401484842353164187289644990291826479115285530285530113498172007-09-3040.42%29.05%27.83%27.00%1.9738-1.41-0.03-1325.01.681.27480.93650.63843.63110.78415.6%431734
2007-07-1920072N/AN/A1.532.34%68.02%93703618742222444875141671784763753420.62511.314516143036861781103952790477-510351422531237894405101872894463205810193099285530285530115639652007-06-3042.07%27.35%26.09%27.00%1.6548-1.790.35115.710.680.86810.52770.24432.16310.6839-3.9%632753
2007-04-2420071N/AN/A-35.68%35.68%9371869371862696802696801968661968660.68950.689518452969122991096576785106-7487202096059216N/A187289218821218821406110285530285530131343802007-03-3141.91%30.03%28.78%27.00%0.9399-2.621.1838.981.421.1620.82140.51731.46460.59437.3%963984
2007-02-1520064N/AN/A2.0N/AN/A797145361248217040310019471226307196780.42952.520516202116691751068387757697-5518248358864927983337623405878660746769187289285530285530123491722006-12-3141.10%22.88%21.38%28.04%0.49217.15931.930.4988.270.660.88320.53410.24721.93610.6594-11.1%20675170

Financial Quarter Balance Sheet
yearqrtComputer software (A-0)Deferred tax assets (A-0)Goodwill on consolidation (A-0)Investment properties (A-0)Property, plant and equipment (A-0)Cash and cash equivalents (A-1)Current asset classified as held for sales (A-1)Current tax assets (A-1)Derivative financial assets (A-1)Inventories (A-1)Other receivables (A-1)Deferred income (L-0)Deferred tax liabilities (L-0)Loans & borrowings (L-0)Post-employment benefit obligations (L-0)Current tax liabilities (L-1)Deferred income (L-1)Derivative financial liabilities (L-1)Loans & borrowings (L-1)Other payables (L-1)
2012339602010241161813840988925901--256733315822734596284848325000054148179633043706300000259181
20122397920102411618138409434274471--29233753720394566354574725000050211109522095-400000367556
20121454820102411618138413994290583--4672314861751697159441212500004809817412095-400000319794
20114474220102411618138424332306647---1929592069257683422562500004511675662095322400000361295
20113239455294116181636395942318547888-1796197759206384-41764250000509174304--400000347399
201122667151584116181636390551413738888-109223447184335-406306500004769106393---338979
201113354151584116181631397033334731888-1093221816183692-40876650000416183647---301037
201044336151584116181636405826356623888--193572179489-41805650000411766758-1832-314208
20103322219701411618165438910433716121386--200228174899-49729650000697175806-1622-287975
201023718201394116181654424926501779887--217714174121-472016500006662123212-3375-288586
2010155012036241161816544410014334072837--210583171917-46976650000635287677-4269-275599
2009465501929541161816544510691686864288--214258164712-46752650000604380962---219088
2009389324978411618-4560643171611950--233279168754-42630650000566466092--150000247249
20092112594978411618-431879265140195019982-235459163473-440564000005438122722--150000226506
20091132034978411618-445677303711-19982-288341218980-440414000005041103453--250000291210
20084152324978411618-459079593872063833604-224958257818-43287400000529796512--250000285737
20083169764978411618-4386751573512119026754-256922205566-590485500005793107253--100000267066
20082185054978411618-4432802624842063826754-260915218063-592745500005523116514--100000294652
20081201634978411618-4460172488632063826754-235198199168-59117650000525296624---245058
20074210914978411618-460785706662063826754-243988186490-58585650000498256493--100000231036
20073108732957411618-4822274791152205527715-253874173901-559606500005364101173--450000199269
2007214232295741161819851479467193099196227715-269038194364-583822500005093116213--450000224264
20071142264020411618199574831764061102547927715-267392185603-566472500004823101873--450000233233
20064141004020411618200105012881872892557927715-264507164085-56138250000455288819--450000218878

Financial Quarter Income Statement
yearqrtRevenueIncome tax expenseCost of salesFinance/interest costsOther incomeAdministrative/Operating expenses
2012311600556430776916968191305135392
201221067987758726993976831741572454
2012110427626705367546668312617101520
201149872654818461082169065716146422
2011311045256304171714569072634143797
2011210433066365867110168312778120354
201119921496177063603767563115112144
2010495916345705609001690620113134943
201039935915192463101369072822135915
201029938746420861246168313589128123
2010110188206623362416867561596131365
2009410209505503163089874791545156222
200939191976776854647171811764132807
200929776486888760067565241416101734
2009110056266684260099066391014126228
2008410024474292260593374323841177127
2008310977168340864236267283954136955
2008210136476941560616869941839137721
2008110214107373861100969773281121563
2007494823656381574748106562886157591
20073100841175764600761123201391116114
2007293703666011542841118183451141341
2007193718672814544431117213038114392
2006479714547773469496120131131146364



Short form reference
a_date = announcement date, yr = financial year end, qrt = quarter
h_price = stock highest price during the quarter, l_price = stock lowest price during the quarter
div = dividend recommend or declare in the quarter, roe = return on equity
c_roe = cumulative of return on equity during the financial year
rev = revenue in the current quarter, c_rev = cumulative of revenue during the financial year
pbt = profit before tax in the current quarter, c_pbt = cumulative of profit before tax during the financial year
eps = earnings per share in the current quarter, c_eps = cumulative of earnings per share during the financial year
asset = total asset, liab = total liability, mino = minority interest, equi = total equity
cfo = net cash flow from operating activities, cfi = net cash flow from investing activities
cff = net cash flow from financing activities, cash = cash and cash equivalents as at beginning of financial year
final = cash and cash equivalents as at current financial period ended
share = diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares
c_share = cumulative of diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares during the financial year
m_cap = market capital at announcement date of quarterly report, date = current financial period ended date
prof_m = profit margin, vat = income tax rate, pe = price earning per share ratio of recent four quarter
navps = net asset value per share, ntaps = net tangible asset per share, cps = cash per share
l_cur = liquidity current ratio, l_qui = liquidity quick ratio, l_cash = liquidity cash ratio
g_de = gearing debt to equity ratio, g_da = gearing debt to assets ratio
avg_w = working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
inv_d = days to sell the inventory, rec_d = days to collect the receivables
pay_d = days to pay the payables


CURRENT


CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING
ANNUAL REPORTS


HISTORICAL


CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING


ARCHIVES


CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING


ARCHIVES


CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING

No comments:

Post a Comment