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Thursday, November 1, 2012

KLCI Stock - PARKSON / 5657 - 2012 Quarter 4

PARKSON HOLDINGS BERHAD


Company Description
Parkson Holdings Berhad is a Malaysia-based investment holding company. The Company, along with its subsidiaries, is principally engaged in the operations of the Parkson brand department stores. The businesses are located in China, Malaysia and Vietnam. The Company has a chain of 86 Parkson department stores, with 35 in Malaysia, 45 in China and 6 in Vietnam. The Company's subsidiaries include East Crest International Limited, Prime Yield Holdings Limited, PRG Corporation Limited and Sea Coral Limited. On October 9, 2008, East Crest International Limited, a wholly owned subsidiary of the Company, disposed of Jet East Investments Limited. In August 2009, the Company acquired Bond Glory Limited, which is the legal and beneficial owner of the entire equity interest in Choice Link Limited.

Company Info
Listing Date1993-10-28
Market Capital (Capital Size)5,305,424,942 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00
BoardMain
SectorTrading/Services
Major IndustryRetailing
Sub IndustryInvestment Holding
Websitehttp://www.lion.com.my/WebCorp/phb.nsf/Intro

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(4.85-0.16)/0.4256 = 11.02 (Moderate)
Target Price5.11+0.16 = 5.27 (PE 12.0, EPS 0.4256, DPS 0.16)
DecisionBUY when stock price drop and rebound around SMA20
Comment
Revenue decreased 10% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 16.3%, eps decreased 24% and was second consecutive quarter decreasing but still higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 6.6%, cash generated from operating is more than enough to cover financing expenses and got borrowings to cover all investing expenses, operating margin was fifth consecutive quarter drop, liquidity ratio indicate the Group in a good position to meet current obligation but sitting too many cash, gearing ratio indicate the Group reduce leverage which can be a signal of business weakening, benefit from long payables repayment period which conserve cash, benefit from short inventory and short receivable turnover period which got more cash, all country recorded lower profit
First Support Price4.8
Second Support Price4.6
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
RHB Target Price4.95 (2012-08-27)
Kenanga Target Price4.86 (2012-08-28)
ECM Target Price4.35 (2012-09-04)
HwangDBS Target Price4.9 (2012-09-04)
Maybank Target Price4.9 (2012-09-04)
OSK Target Price5.42 (2012-09-04)
AMMB Target Price6.3 (2012-09-14)
Public Target Price5.73 (2012-10-01)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity11.12%
Dividend Yield3.30%
Operating Profit Margin23.67%
Net Profit Margin22.05%
Tax Rate24.83%
Asset Turnover0.4427
Net Asset Value Per Share2.46
Net Tangible Asset per share1.26
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share3.71
Cash Per Share2.79
Liquidity Current Ratio1.8607
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.7258
Liquidity Cash Ratio1.4513
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio1.3327
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.4587
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale52.1%
Days to sell the inventory42
Days to collect the receivables61
Days to pay the payables301

Technical Analysis
SMA 104.763 (Uptrend)
SMA 204.746 (Uptrend 1 day)
SMA 504.704 (Uptrend)
SMA 1004.695 (Uptrend)
SMA 2005.005 (Downtrend)
MACD (26d/12d)0.024246 ( 0.005934 )
Signal (9)0.016772 ( 0.001869 )
MACD Histogram0.007474 (Bullish trend 5 days)
Bolinger Upper Band4.835
Bolinger Lower Band4.657

My notes based on 2012 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue than FY11Q4 mainly due to continued same store sales growth in all our retail operations in Malaysia (9%), China (6%) and Vietnam (9%) and the inclusion of our Indonesia operation which was acquired in June 2011, the Retailing Division and KL Festival City, the Group's first local self-owned and managed retail mall, has consistently delivered steady and sustainable returns since its opening in October 2011. Increasing occupancy rate and better operating efficiencies of the retail mall together with the foreign exchange gain have enabled the Property and Investment Holding Division to register a commendable revenue of RM20.2 million

- Lower revenue and pbt than FY12Q3 mainly due to absence of major festive celebration as against the peak season for retail operations during the Lunar New Year festival in the immediate preceding quarter

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q4 result announced = 4215218*0.11/1089544 = 0.4256, estimate PE on current price 4.85 = 11.02(DPS 0.16)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q3 result announced = 4138772*0.11/1089045 = 0.418, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.36/9.9 (DPS 0.16)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = 4075325*0.11/1089544 = 0.4114, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.47/10.94 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 0.3308*1.1 = 0.3639, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.88/14.4 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.32*1.1 = 0.352, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.08/13.41 (DPS 0.16)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.3094*1.1 = 0.3403(0.3094 from recent fourth quarter eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 22.25/14.66 (DPS 0.16)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.1587*2*1.05 = 0.3333, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.19/15.09 (DPS 0.16)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.3015, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.24/17.38 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.3015, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.17/17.74 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.2741*1.1 = 0.3015, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.91/16.42 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.2676*1.1 = 0.2944, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.48/17.15 (DPS 0.05)

PARKSON latest news (English)

PARKSON latest news (Chinese)

MIER Consumer Sentiment Index

MYR/CNY Chart

Financial Quarter Summary
a_dateyearqrth_pricel_pricedivroec_roerevc_revpbtc_pbtprofc_profepsc_epsassetc_assetliabc_liabminoequicfocficffcashfcfnetfinalsharec_sharem_capdateoper_mprof_mvatasset_tpenavpsntapsp/ntapscpsl_curl_quil_cashg_deg_daavg_winv_drec_dpay_d
2012-08-2720124N/AN/A-2.30%11.12%8265053447524182241882363777133760850.07150.3456778711638861333571898208850815350294215218901516565389213685290842933612712244230308711086436108821750736562012-06-3023.67%22.05%24.83%0.442713.51282.461.263.712.791.86071.72581.45131.33270.458752.1%4261301
2012-05-22201234.914.30.063.03%8.82%91820626210192498157001221023602983720.09410.274077414533957759360268121836501510283413877285415650080957622283255435334729572531282791088058108904551029922012-03-3128.67%27.21%25.21%0.4304-2.411.243.782.881.81251.68251.43261.37060.465453.2%4460327
2012-02-27201225.694.65-3.12%5.79%91118217028132400434503071057231960120.09710.1799819236843218724117043266927514787104075325101629442273464208291942659356052935234487781088305108954460727412011-12-3129.18%26.34%22.26%0.3924-2.381.184.733.171.61911.50751.2921.58550.502551.4%4965429
2011-11-23201215.935.390.12.67%2.67%79163179163121026421026490289902890.08280.0828820377646032614433545344338513181043770231356548876375375292184226891126353631853781090784109078461629292011-09-3031.03%26.56%26.20%0.373-2.251.045.432.921.33681.07150.92511.8080.540437.9%16360377
2011-08-23201145.824.880.052.55%12.18%7108922925082185652806841732423499780.06710.322272709433941082388757829390561147275338336575703118259747723221146457443452671127381751091076108609261100252011-06-3031.23%26.12%27.98%0.402317.37862.060.926.092.511.34091.05150.93251.73860.534734.3%15944318
2011-05-25201137.735.15-3.66%9.63%80132522141902462586211891051722767360.09640.255274288174239968418142632297461106332324739187377612369530872219175575008178095329727081090869108444563379482011-03-3135.23%30.73%24.92%0.3816-1.970.856.842.731.31281.05220.92041.9530.562935.6%16255378
2011-02-22201125.895.19-3.26%5.97%7563801412865204997374931938001715640.08670.15877431255422970043314453365531103803230998107737437603952980221863969770475068429693231082277108130559092322010-12-3134.37%27.10%23.08%0.3751-1.910.787.02.741.25681.00190.88232.10080.582931.0%16753401
2010-11-15201115.955.390.12.71%2.71%65648565648516993416993477764777640.07200.0720690589337226603775825196680310014083130068357361778803033219569827948128251424782121080334108033462227232010-09-3031.55%25.89%22.37%0.3968-1.970.856.782.291.89271.46191.261.77380.546864.1%16753360
2010-08-24201046.145.410.062.18%11.00%6203702725450152815713138586072951850.05420.274167385013496649386486319736259909572873638855208420707108731194803243450132577022738021080743107697059332792010-06-3030.86%24.63%23.76%0.404520.031.750.599.312.11.77171.33381.15212.05290.573555.9%17048316
2010-05-24201035.755.0-3.21%8.81%7538972105080208886560323861292365780.07960.219969180223802253412505326345961026248279296982014027534141471194324254479950332824465701081635107571655704202010-03-3132.94%27.71%24.62%0.3873-1.640.549.542.261.44321.11340.92862.33490.596343.6%17666384
2010-02-23201026.085.1-3.09%5.60%7093191351183194950351437830271504490.07730.140271657743881647437371228073261001710279206267666917860741646203748449806245641624939001073587107282257866332009-12-3133.66%27.48%23.79%0.3669-1.670.5210.372.321.38271.06260.88842.44290.610440.9%18668427
2009-11-16201016.25.09-2.51%2.51%64186464186415648715648767422674220.06290.0629686825236762324098020203554398514027702323833741481735989206700123520124119023081911072056107205657247792009-09-3030.34%24.38%22.60%0.3792-1.670.549.892.151.8061.35431.13392.29570.596763.0%19163367
2009-08-26200945.514.960.0515.26%27.72%57441325836644011599460223038375519990.28340.513065261793402981384181115262929347872684368863931396639350981197720046729211631120935111072076107611855211912009-06-3034.68%69.84%11.70%0.395910.03991.630.510.31.952.22961.62821.37162.19580.588772.6%18955307
2009-05-27200935.814.64-3.94%12.46%7031842009251191370544863785242481620.07320.230364993963700868400979717020229695062489599347503216932231156204174813057110058519411631072734107746050847592009-03-3133.38%27.21%22.18%0.3876-1.410.2419.751.812.17441.61481.14052.63790.616979.3%198117339
2009-02-25200924.83.28-5.36%8.52%68492313060672084823534931068341696380.09930.157162567863560919400447517796098585592252311658759188668206017195676447009126407422208381076059107977135725152008-12-3132.29%30.44%19.43%0.3917-1.290.1719.532.062.0011.47071.24792.87320.6472.7%20059363
2008-11-19200914.33.02-3.15%3.15%62114462114414501114501162804628040.05800.058059223193309123376700315229708276592155316221831973801333651936829124451891419279151083484108348435538272008-09-3024.81%23.35%21.72%0.4009-1.230.1521.871.782.17281.56231.26592.83730.636175.2%20369319
2008-08-27200844.762.550.054.68%38.74%5100752242297127838775413559564628340.05130.423454629823017506347161813268297418701991364628765192750137229154129543601529878618400811091378109305548238902008-06-3029.38%25.06%21.65%0.410510.43851.140.2121.051.692.27421.6021.38682.77840.635575.4%20646292
2008-05-28200836.454.240.0525.15%34.06%63453417322223932726475753004834068780.27480.3828545149531590093617115137286071796918343806804351582076468147920252222852869620078981093610106277469991042008-03-3132.04%61.98%8.82%0.4003-1.050.1835.561.842.3011.67751.46263.23990.663581.9%20149300
2008-02-25200827.95.050.055.53%8.91%6085721097688154968254303660431063950.06040.10245152444309702937536461429009648367139879854003613540137442147517840463544207719172551093610103926276552702007-12-3132.19%25.46%23.78%0.3952-0.72-0.18-38.891.752.16731.551.34175.0020.728581.9%22053329
2007-11-282008110.16.95-3.38%3.38%489116489116993359933540352403520.04100.04104865129290793235556161198174610780130951323650733803523401475468202704255044173051298491498491479778032007-09-3022.90%20.31%23.43%0.3895-0.71-0.19-42.631.762.4271.67361.44435.08870.730890.2%24052296
2007-08-27200749.557.4-N/AN/A44983917941366713338876084371348700.00870.13924856082296376536614231290304573347119465930738013012191597299871113993839603460147457396861096861013560542006-06-3026.09%14.92%35.00%0.289510.05450.64-0.28-5.01.532.2971.59821.14855.89310.754119.0%33165344
2007-05-2120073N/AN/A-N/AN/A4888611344297115531321627473831264330.04890.130537016823476429286228630915628773064062689479571225224871113541689683535155464896861096861013366812007-03-3130.26%23.63%23.26%2.5822-0.060.0623.00.010.820.31120.0194.74820.7912-5.4%802795
2007-02-2620072N/AN/A-N/AN/A46700385543612995220609656613790500.05840.081631965818307224275223548815425769064200799490531319550871113528974790576166168996861096861010848432006-12-3131.08%27.83%25.65%1.4609-0.060.0618.67N/A0.77740.31550.00853.94840.7594-11.2%-46N/A

Financial Quarter Balance Sheet
yearqrtDeferred tax assets (A-0)Intangible assets (A-0)Investment in associated companies (A-0)Investment properties (A-0)Investment securities (A-0)Leasehold land use rights (A-0)Other assets (A-0)Property, plant and equipment (A-0)Cash and cash equivalents (A-1)Current asset classified as held for sales (A-1)Inventories (A-1)Investment securities (A-1)Other receivables (A-1)Trade receivables (A-1)Deferred tax liabilities (L-0)Loans & borrowings (L-0)Long term payables (L-0)Current tax liabilities (L-1)Liabilities directly associated with assets classified as held for sale (L-1)Loans & borrowings (L-1)Other payables (L-1)Payables and accruals (L-1)Minority interest (M-1)
2012461696130948211631718554341528173731145317201823031011-281720-573402-117206126061910556545096-1722043240-1535029
2012348428127857811061843104414927607629794116531063128279-283730-545750-11280012204778575488788-362094826-1510283
2012244816131433911091863244265828664531733416772713448778-297901-575193-11716812465828401885466-432583766-1478710
2012141418131376510541857414151429022811909216077033185378-274104639430504349-1211737932177577058834-12664052118146-1318104
20114381061235534937178200145432720059725914932772740698-246240604447349697-1140857613877305046497-11889741703585-1147275
201133492312155671006301225133425064512215190902972708-235712605942425606-1144627631667405266053-12014291962264-1106332
20112353631223747987306095133487123582615257982969323-238768619090402519-1161317753357444861743-12369552066833-1038032
201113525812069611124303565133477633504915262092478212-228932618377397139-11652816203547214048114-902121828477-1001408
20104358241244461115231671-3606553707515310142273802-213012651121358714-12371616957967172644446-3282171600962-990957
20103318281181978112185882-307000-15079602446570-217052651783486848-12506812963376905262673-6780891893834-1026248
20102324071234000112090853-3214844328615609772493900-212958685696489093-13163913628767187147204-6975192062603-1001710
201013518612044821101114679-3275365296009794362308191-224192695337448512-13171418589857177847481-2231191764943-985140
200943368712168071089116663-3334674278109936752093511-214265703557391648-13630621068107240334620-3171491355-934787
200933801912640411487122159-323244924689571101941163-223025729398807282-13448521051836810755351-11142918759716770969506
200923686312143381273117309-314252825659292672220838-247296696317396468-13019920306346403353578-13718984778727535858559
200913979811634761279116542-313404887988898991927915-243657686202451349-12634620460437164446940-15703816034644293827659
200843618410196071145111053-3030551391388352941840081-237804654093285528-12038419558196858647221-13259675240591109741870
20083326799297711247107035-2306021727998183532007898-215354640714280560144839638521040584381253975-40702801446476737717969
20082301969323801066107187-2160131833355852381917255-218101663996280638170399780021833934344457880-52791844909473429648367
2008131261889933855108287-219066159816547979173051222492205226821302600051251410289422113324321634032-51973671111441058610780
20074308258902341029108192-2188731181765249881481952328229210557691026241097109041030782223793442483598826013055643582093356450573347
200731383395557----38461544313812144662996423465617191447918833-1132631233264971715628
200721383396094----39106200713812107787996396854502191518718863-111456725005152915425

Financial Quarter Income Statement
yearqrtRevenueIncome tax expenseFinance/interest costsOther incomeAdministrative/Operating expensesMinority interestShare of profit/ (loss) of associatesDiscontinued operationAfter tax effect of interest savings on RCSLSGain on dilution of retail operationsInterest income
201248265054524413396852937486545928426---32467
201239182066297313487921647780978448233---30996
201229111825342925849903417708418089154---35156
201217916315509535442706176581186488043---41533
201147108925195036428666846041996046037-0-48666
201138013256137036042734866292887971632-0-36745
201127563804731555024959476222726388250-0-29916
201116564853801038796726385483555416014-1574-26374
201046203703630641369837585398395790228-2686-27181
201037538975143442165673986033947132356-2657-30437
201027093194638746597660065676916553644-2716-31153
201016418643536741004608085332355369825-2716-25313
200945744134694445798687254714225037878-264724504627470
2009370318442448460766846456874570398158-2589031796
2009268492340500482116581156048661148393-26513247030931
200916211443149011801547075217535071772-2642--
2008451007527677415268507347762344205152232371644532311
20083634534347014719052651517166580881780537523158733303
200826085723685546699487824961535207021105581-34674
200814891162327211656409254180183571181707667--
20074449839234953930459060421038352011510946--29507
2007348886126876344914071140647441272102105--24809
2007246700333332192115094438964940007493954--16862

Financial Quarter Segments Revenue
yearqrtInvestment holdingMalaysiaIndonesiaChinaVietnam
20124201702083903212555058227766
20123-1966603174965258129847
20122-2282633537261334929039
20121-2074113366652682223732
20114-192273961748539723953
20113-184652-59001526658
20112-203913-52494927518
20111-185734-44766323088
20104-163147-43309824125
20103-174344-55243527118
20102-188871-49600024448
20101-173105-44621522544

Financial Quarter Segments Profit
yearqrtInvestment holdingMalaysiaIndonesiaChinaVietnam
2012411339169542057136352606
201239062703124382008451105
2012226194365439521800995647
2012142703348442221664114335
2011457631518315191623085937
2011363822101-2183846660
2011258226747-1963696518
20111220027897-1503214911
201041238116206-1839225803
2010316214725-1964296909
201024818051-1837655866
201012116324-1492603874

Short form reference
a_date = announcement date, yr = financial year end, qrt = quarter
h_price = stock highest price during the quarter, l_price = stock lowest price during the quarter
div = dividend recommend or declare in the quarter, roe = return on equity
c_roe = cumulative of return on equity during the financial year
rev = revenue in the current quarter, c_rev = cumulative of revenue during the financial year
pbt = profit before tax in the current quarter, c_pbt = cumulative of profit before tax during the financial year
eps = earnings per share in the current quarter, c_eps = cumulative of earnings per share during the financial year
asset = total asset, c_asset = current asset, liab = total liability, c_liab = current liability, mino = minority interest, equi = total equity
cfo = net cash flow from operating activities, cfi = net cash flow from investing activities
cff = net cash flow from financing activities, cash = cash and cash equivalents as at beginning of financial year
final = cash and cash equivalents as at current financial period ended
share = diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares
c_share = cumulative of diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares during the financial year
m_cap = market capital at announcement date of quarterly report, date = current financial period ended date
prof_m = profit margin, vat = income tax rate, pe = price earning per share ratio of recent four quarter
navps = net asset value per share, ntaps = net tangible asset per share, cps = cash per share
l_cur = liquidity current ratio, l_qui = liquidity quick ratio, l_cash = liquidity cash ratio
g_de = gearing debt to equity ratio, g_da = gearing debt to assets ratio
avg_w = working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
inv_d = days to sell the inventory, rec_d = days to collect the receivables
pay_d = days to pay the payables


CURRENT


CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING
ANNUAL REPORTS


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