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Wednesday, October 31, 2012

KLCI Stock - AFFIN / 5185 - 2012 Quarter 2

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)5,081,557,740 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(3.4-0.12)/0.3943 = 8.32 (Moderate)
Target Price3.75+0.12 = 3.87 (PE 9.5, EPS 0.3943, DPS 0.12)
DecisionBUY if stock price sustain and uptrend above SMA20 or wait rebound at lower price
Revenue increased 1.8% and is continuous increasing since FY09Q2(higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 13.4%), eps decreased 15.2% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 4.9%, not enough cash for operating hence increase borrowings and spent 16.9% of Group cash to cover all expenses, interest margin improve quarter-by-quarter, all division still growth
First Support Price3.36
Second Support Price3.23

Research House
HwangDBS Target Price4 (2012-06-25)
Jupiter Target Price3.9 (2012-07-18)
Alliance Target Price4.42 (2012-08-22)
MIDF Target Price4.1 (2012-08-22)
TA Target Price4.3 (2012-08-22)
HLG Target Price2.96 (2012-08-23)
CIMB Target Price2.82 (2012-09-03)
RHB Target Price3.5 (2012-09-03)
Kenanga Target Price4.3 (2012-09-07)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity10.64%
Dividend Yield3.53%
Interest Profit Margin43.8%
Operating Profit Margin27.85%
Net Profit Margin26.57%
Tax Rate27.96%
Asset Turnover0.0521
Net Asset Value Per Share3.94
Net Tangible Asset per share3.27
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.09
Cash Per Share6.69
Liquidity Current Ratio1.1284
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.9119
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.2127
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio8.2743
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.8922
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale212.1%
Days to sell the inventory1822
Days to collect the receivables4207
Days to pay the payables8406

Technical Analysis
SMA 103.365 (Uptrend)
SMA 203.356 (Uptrend 4 days)
SMA 503.398 (Downtrend)
SMA 1003.424 (Uptrend)
SMA 2003.252 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d)-0.001788 ( 0.003028 )
Signal (9)-0.011585 ( 0.002449 )
MACD Histogram0.009797 (Bullish trend 22 days)
Bolinger Upper Band3.421
Bolinger Lower Band3.291

My notes based on 2012 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- Higher pbt than FY11Q2 mainly due to higher write-back of allowance for impairment on securities of RM8.4 mil as well as the write-back of allowance for loan impairment of RM6.6 mil as compared to a charge of RM26 mil. The other operating income, share of profit in associate and net interest income were higher and lower losses in jointly-controlled entities however offset by higher overhead expenses and finance cost

- Lower pbt than FY12Q1 mainly due to lower share of profit in associate, lower write-back of loan impairment as well as the allowance for securities impairment offset by higher other operating income and Islamic banking income

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = 5892892*0.1/1494576 = 0.3943, estimate PE on current price 3.4 = 8.32(DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 5758289*0.1/1494576 = 0.3853, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.53/7.5 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 5592224*0.1/1494576 = 0.3742, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.23/7.3 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.3377*1.05 = 0.3546, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.94/7.39 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.071+0.0898)*2*1.05 = 0.3377, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.21/6.4 (DPS 0.09)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = (0.071+0.077)*2 = 0.296, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.76/9.8 (DPS 0.09)

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