KLCI Stock - AFFIN / 5185 - 2012 Quarter 2

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	5,081,557,740 (Very Large)
Par Value	RM 1.00

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(3.4-0.12)/0.3943 = 8.32 (Moderate)
Target Price	3.75+0.12 = 3.87 (PE 9.5, EPS 0.3943, DPS 0.12)
Decision	BUY if stock price sustain and uptrend above SMA20 or wait rebound at lower price
Comment	Revenue increased 1.8% and is continuous increasing since FY09Q2(higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 13.4%), eps decreased 15.2% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 4.9%, not enough cash for operating hence increase borrowings and spent 16.9% of Group cash to cover all expenses, interest margin improve quarter-by-quarter, all division still growth
First Support Price	3.36
Second Support Price	3.23
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

HwangDBS Target Price	4 (2012-06-25)
Jupiter Target Price	3.9 (2012-07-18)
Alliance Target Price	4.42 (2012-08-22)
MIDF Target Price	4.1 (2012-08-22)
TA Target Price	4.3 (2012-08-22)
HLG Target Price	2.96 (2012-08-23)
CIMB Target Price	2.82 (2012-09-03)
RHB Target Price	3.5 (2012-09-03)
Kenanga Target Price	4.3 (2012-09-07)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	10.64%
Dividend Yield	3.53%
Interest Profit Margin	43.8%
Operating Profit Margin	27.85%
Net Profit Margin	26.57%
Tax Rate	27.96%
Asset Turnover	0.0521
Net Asset Value Per Share	3.94
Net Tangible Asset per share	3.27
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	1.09
Cash Per Share	6.69
Liquidity Current Ratio	1.1284
Liquidity Quick Ratio	0.9119
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.2127
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	8.2743
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.8922
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	212.1%
Days to sell the inventory	1822
Days to collect the receivables	4207
Days to pay the payables	8406

Technical Analysis

SMA 10	3.365 (Uptrend)
SMA 20	3.356 (Uptrend 4 days)
SMA 50	3.398 (Downtrend)
SMA 100	3.424 (Uptrend)
SMA 200	3.252 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d)	-0.001788 ( 0.003028 )
Signal (9)	-0.011585 ( 0.002449 )
MACD Histogram	0.009797 (Bullish trend 22 days)
Bolinger Upper Band	3.421
Bolinger Lower Band	3.291

My notes based on 2012 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- Higher pbt than FY11Q2 mainly due to higher write-back of allowance for impairment on securities of RM8.4 mil as well as the write-back of allowance for loan impairment of RM6.6 mil as compared to a charge of RM26 mil. The other operating income, share of profit in associate and net interest income were higher and lower losses in jointly-controlled entities however offset by higher overhead expenses and finance cost

- Lower pbt than FY12Q1 mainly due to lower share of profit in associate, lower write-back of loan impairment as well as the allowance for securities impairment offset by higher other operating income and Islamic banking income

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = 5892892*0.1/1494576 = 0.3943, estimate PE on current price 3.4 = 8.32(DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 5758289*0.1/1494576 = 0.3853, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.53/7.5 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 5592224*0.1/1494576 = 0.3742, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.23/7.3 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.3377*1.05 = 0.3546, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.94/7.39 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.071+0.0898)*2*1.05 = 0.3377, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.21/6.4 (DPS 0.09)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = (0.071+0.077)*2 = 0.296, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.76/9.8 (DPS 0.09)

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