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Monday, October 15, 2012

KLCI Stock - TIMECOM / 5031 - 2012 Quarter 2

Company Info 
Market Capital (Capital Size)1,956,481,079 (Large)
Par ValueRM 0.50

My Analysis 
Forecast P/E now3.42/0.2769 = 12.35 (Moderate)
Target Price0.2769*13.5 = 3.74 (PE 13.5, EPS 0.2769)
DecisionBUY if stock price strong sustain and uptrend above 3.4 or wait if got rebound at around 3.25
Revenue increased 30.4% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 26.6%, eps increased 19.1% and was second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 22.3%, cash generated from operating enough to cover load repayment but still increased borrowings and spent 14.3% of Group cash to cover capital repayment and investing expenses, operating margin strong improved to above 20%, although lower liquidity ratio but still is acceptable level and this showed the Group better utilize capital in investing activities, higher gearing ratio but still quite low level now and this can help to bring in more investment through leverage, benefit from shorter receivables collection period than payables payment period and longer payables payment period which conserves cash
First Support Price3.38
Second Support Price3.25

Research House
CIMB Target Price0.85 (2012-02-27)
OSK Target Price4.52 (2012-09-05)
HLG Target Price4.12 (2012-09-27)

Accounting Ratio 
Return on Equity9.05%
Dividend Yield-
Gross Profit Margin-
Operating Profit Margin22.03%
Net Profit Margin36.49%
Tax Rate3.81%
Asset Turnover0.1392
Net Asset Value Per Share3.96
Net Tangible Asset per share3.55
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share0.93
Cash Per Share0.39
Liquidity Current Ratio1.5345
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.5345
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.787
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.2079
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.1721
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale40.9%
Days to sell the inventory-
Days to collect the receivables209
Days to pay the payables334

Technical Analysis 
SMA 103.326 (Uptrend)
SMA 203.285 (Uptrend 5 days)
SMA 503.336 (Uptrend)
SMA 1003.335 (Uptrend)
SMA 2003.27 (Same)
MACD (26d/12d)0.024719 ( 0.004863 )
Signal (9)-0.005247 ( 0.007492 )
MACD Histogram0.029966 (Bullish trend 6 days)
Bolinger Upper Band3.54
Bolinger Lower Band3.03

My notes based on 2012 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt mainly due to revenue contribution of RM20.2 million from the newly acquired companies, higher revenue from the Group’s existing business and higher dividend income from its available-for-sale financial asset which offset a higher depreciation charge and financial expenses on new borrowings

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = 2065463*0.07/522179 = 0.2769, estimate PE on current price 3.42 = 12.35
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 1836409*0.07/2530775*5 = 0.254, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.37/10.63
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 1757657*0.06/2530775 = 0.0417, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.99/12.95 (DPS 0.02)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0426, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.19/15.38
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.009+0.0113)*2*1.05 = 0.0426, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.31/9.74
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.009*4*1.05 = 0.0378, estimate highest/lowest PE = 22.22/14.02

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