KLCI Stock - DIALOG / 7277 - 2012 Quarter 4

Company Info 

Market Capital (Capital Size)	5,776,122,583 (Very Large)
Par Value	RM 0.10

My Analysis 

Forecast P/E now	(2.4-0.029)/0.0851 = 27.86 (Moderate)
Target Price	2.60+0.029 = 2.62 (PE 30.5, EPS 0.0851, DPS 0.029)
Decision	BUY if stock price continue sustain above 2.34 and must sustain above 2.3
Comment	Revenue increased 19% and was third consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 33.4%, eps increased 19.5% but lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 8%, cash generated from operating enough to cover financing expenses and also enough cash generated from financing to cover investing expenses, margin still decreasing, current liquidity ratio indicate financial strength is strong, higher gearing ratio and benefit from well leverage through receivables-payables, all accounting of turnover or repayment period was good, most country business still high profit
First Support Price	2.3
Second Support Price	2.17
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

BIMB Target Price	2.7 (2012-08-14)
MIDF Target Price	2.8 (2012-08-14)
OSK Target Price	3.16 (2012-08-14)
RHB Target Price	2.85 (2012-08-14)
Maybank Target Price	3.05 (2012-08-22)
AMMB Target Price	2.85 (2012-09-14)
CIMB Target Price	2.91 (2012-09-14)
Kenanga Target Price	2.79 (2012-10-01)
HwangDBS Target Price	2.85 (2012-10-02)

Accounting Ratio 

Return on Equity	28.55%
Dividend Yield	1.21%
Gross Profit Margin	-
Operating Profit Margin	9.99%
Net Profit Margin	12.77%
Tax Rate	19.66%
Asset Turnover	0.797
Net Asset Value Per Share	0.51
Net Tangible Asset per share	0.5
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	4.86
Cash Per Share	0.24
Liquidity Current Ratio	2.1229
Liquidity Quick Ratio	1.9464
Liquidity Cash Ratio	1.0457
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.6801
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.396
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	38.1%
Days to sell the inventory	24
Days to collect the receivables	110
Days to pay the payables	116

Technical Analysis 

SMA 10	2.341 (Uptrend)
SMA 20	2.343 (Uptrend 1 day)
SMA 50	2.38 (Same)
SMA 100	2.356 (Uptrend)
SMA 200	2.336 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d)	-0.00297 ( 0.004817 )
Signal (9)	-0.010039 ( 0.001767 )
MACD Histogram	0.007069 (Bullish trend 6 days)
Bolinger Upper Band	2.426
Bolinger Lower Band	2.26

My notes based on 2012 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt mainly due to consolidation of the revenue of the newly acquired fabrication and multi-disciplined engineering company, Fitzroy Engineering Group Limited, based in New Zealand. In addition, contribution from Malaysia and Asia operation such as Brunei, Thailand, Middle East and China, also increased significantly mainly due to higher revenue of Specialist Products & Services recorded

- The commencement of operations by Langsat Terminal (One) – Phase 3 in September 2011 and Langsat Terminal (Two) in January 2012 had also contributed positively to the Group’s results in the current financial year

- Singapore operation had however registered lower revenue mainly affected by lesser works undertaken for its engineering & construction and plant maintenance activities

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q4 result announced = 1238028*0.16/2328586 = 0.0851, estimate PE on current price 2.4 = 27.86(DPS 0.029)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q3 result announced = 1215186*0.15/2243624 = 0.0812, estimate highest/lowest PE = 30.92/26.49 (DPS 0.029)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = 693386*0.24/1993555 = 0.0835, estimate highest/lowest PE = 29.57/25.5 (DPS 0.031)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 0.1085, estimate highest/lowest PE = 24.32/21.37 (DPS 0.031)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.0226*4*1.2 = 0.1085, estimate highest/lowest PE = 25.43/16.21 (DPS 0.031)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = (0.0183+0.0193)*2*1.2 = 0.0902, estimate highest/lowest PE = 31.59/24.05 (DPS 0.031)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.0183+0.0146)*2*1.05 = 0.0691, estimate highest/lowest PE = 38.77/30.38 (DPS 0.031)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0169*4*1.05 = 0.071(ROE 6% per quarter), estimate highest/lowest PE = 31.82/19.14 (DPS 0.031)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0146*4*1.05 = 0.0613, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.8/16.95 (DPS 0.031)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0162*4*1.05 = 0.068(5% increase), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.93/14.16 (DPS 0.037)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.04*2 = 0.08, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.3/11.5 (DPS 0.036)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0193*4 = 0.0772, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.83/15.73 (DPS 0.036)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0659*1.1 = 0.0725, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.4/15.64 (DPS 0.036)

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