KLCI Stock - YTL / 4677 - 2012 Quarter 4

Company Info 

Market Capital (Capital Size)	18,608,579,486 (Very Large)
Par Value	RM 0.10

My Analysis 

Forecast P/E now	(1.75-0.02)/0.1388 = 12.46 (Moderate)
Target Price	1.94+0.02 = 1.96 (PE 14.0, EPS 0.1388, DPS 0.02)
Decision	BUY if stock price sustain and uptrend above 1.74 or wait rebound signal at lower price
Comment	Revenue increased 1.7% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 2.3%, eps decreased 24.2% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 5.5%, cash generated from operating not enough to cover financing expenses hence generated more cash from financing to cover all other expenses, gross margin dropped below 20% compared earlier above 30%, lower liquidity ratio and lower working capital also indicate the Group is operating efficiency with low liquidity to meet current obligation, lower gearing ratio indicate cannot utilize higher leverage to generate more income, all accounting f turnover and repayment period is good, lower property development cost can indicate project reduce but offset by more inventory and receivables, significant lower profit from Utilities segment
First Support Price	1.7
Second Support Price	1.6
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

Jupiter Target Price	2 (2012-03-16)
ECM Target Price	2.44 (2012-08-17)
Kenanga Target Price	1.8 (2012-08-17)

Accounting Ratio 

Return on Equity	9.06%
Dividend Yield	1.14%
Gross Profit Margin	18.24%
Operating Profit Margin	11.82%
Net Profit Margin	9.81%
Tax Rate	7.13%
Asset Turnover	0.3981
Net Asset Value Per Share	1.25
Net Tangible Asset per share	0.76
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	2.51
Cash Per Share	1.44
Liquidity Current Ratio	1.2857
Liquidity Quick Ratio	1.1585
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.8624
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	3.0799
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.725
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	22.6%
Days to sell the inventory	46
Days to collect the receivables	83
Days to pay the payables	93

Technical Analysis 

SMA 10	1.752 (Uptrend)
SMA 20	1.751 (Downtrend 24 days)
SMA 50	1.793 (Downtrend)
SMA 100	1.831 (Uptrend)
SMA 200	1.643 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d)	-0.013344 ( 0.000946 )
Signal (9)	-0.017094 ( 0.000937 )
MACD Histogram	0.003750 (Bullish trend 9 days)
Bolinger Upper Band	1.822
Bolinger Lower Band	1.68

My notes based on 2012 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue than FY11Q4 due to recognition of higher percentage of work done from Construction segment and increase in property development works completed for the Capers under the Sentul Raya project and Lakefield project from Property investment & development segment offset by lower demand in the China market for Cement Manufacturing & trading segment, lower interest income recorded by an investment holding subsidiary from Management services & other segment and lower sales recorded in the multi utilities division

- Lower pbt mainly due to lower sales recorded in the multi utilities division, higher finance cost in the water & sewerage division and higher depreciation charges, fuel cost and mobile broadband networks start-up and fixed operating cost

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q4 result announced = 14117244*0.095/9665438 = 0.1388, estimate PE on current price 1.75 = 12.46(DPS 0.02)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q3 result announced = 14202427*0.095/9262896 = 0.1457, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.48/11.46 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = (13853126+2355502)*0.08/10401630 = 0.1247, estimate highest/lowest PEhighest/lowest = 14.27/11.15 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 0.0279*4 = 0.1116, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.44/11.83 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.1172*1.05 = 0.1231, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.27/10.15 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.2632*2 = 0.5264, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.29/11.11 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.1304*4*1.05 = 0.5477(average eps 0.1304; 5% increase), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.41/12.69 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.1162*1.15*4 = 0.5345, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.9/13.55 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1178*4 = 0.4712, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.93/14.85 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1178*4 = 0.4712, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.16/14.44 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1162*4 = 0.4648, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.13/15.01 (DPS 0.075)

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