KLCI Stock - AIRPORT / 5014 - 2012 Quarter 2

Company Info 

Market Capital (Capital Size)	7,114,800,005 (Very Large)
Par Value	RM 1.00

My Analysis 

Forecast P/E now	(5.88-0.2247)/0.4373 = 12.93 (Moderate)
Target Price	6.34+0.2247 = 6.57 (PE 14.5, EPS 0.4373, DPS 0.2247)
Decision	BUY if stock price can strong sustain above 5.9 or wait rebound around SMA20
Comment	Revenue increased 22.8% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 21.9%, eps decreased 9.8% and was second consecutive quarter decreasing but still higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 0.5%, cash generated from operating enough to cover financing expenses and also got enough cash generated from financing to cover all investing expenses, operating margin affected by construction expenses, current liquidity ratio indicate financial strength is strong, gearing ratio indicate Group well manage current liabilities through payables and still can have more improvement via borrowings to generate more income, benefit from high payables which conserves cash and borrowings cost, primary profit contribution segment - Airport services continue growth
First Support Price	5.7
Second Support Price	5.4
Risk Rating	LOW

Research House

HLG Target Price	6.6 (2012-07-30)
HwangDBS Target Price	6.05 (2012-07-30)
Kenanga Target Price	6.45 (2012-07-30)
Maybank Target Price	6.9 (2012-07-30)
MIDF Target Price	6.72 (2012-07-30)
OSK Target Price	7.53 (2012-07-30)
RHB Target Price	5.84 (2012-07-30)
TA Target Price	6.6 (2012-07-30)
CIMB Target Price	6.75 (2012-10-02)

Accounting Ratio 

Return on Equity	12.72%
Dividend Yield	3.82%
Gross Profit Margin	91.67%
Operating Profit Margin	16.72%
Net Profit Margin	17.51%
Tax Rate	28.81%
Asset Turnover	0.3701
Net Asset Value Per Share	3.64
Net Tangible Asset per share	-0.85
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	-6.55
Cash Per Share	0.68
Liquidity Current Ratio	2.1515
Liquidity Quick Ratio	2.0255
Liquidity Cash Ratio	1.1446
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.8857
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.4697
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	28.1%
Days to sell the inventory	166
Days to collect the receivables	78
Days to pay the payables	1209

Technical Analysis 

SMA 10	5.839 (Uptrend)
SMA 20	5.73 (Uptrend 26 days)
SMA 50	5.563 (Uptrend)
SMA 100	5.575 (Uptrend)
SMA 200	5.6 (Same)
MACD (26d/12d)	0.082561 ( 0.001792 )
Signal (9)	0.081129 ( 0.000358 )
MACD Histogram	0.001432 (Bullish trend 1 day)
Bolinger Upper Band	6.072
Bolinger Lower Band	5.388

My notes based on 2012 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt mainly due to aeronautical revenue which was mostly derived from passenger service charges and landing charges driven by higher passenger and aircraft numbers and the implementation of the new rates. The favourable variance in revenue was also due to lower airline incentives

- However, the increase in revenue from passenger service charges was negated by lower MARCS PSC as the Group is no longer entitled to claim for MARCS PSC upon the implementation of the new rates which is equivalent to the benchmark rate as stipulated in the operating agreements signed on 12 February 2009

- Lower revenue and pbt from non-airport segment than FY11Q2 due to lower price attained for fresh fruit bunches coupled with lower production volume. The decrease in the production was in line with the industry outlooks due to the occurrence of El Nino in recent years which have a direct effect on the current oil palm yield

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = 4235363*0.12/1162253 = 0.4373, estimate PE on current price 5.88 = 12.93(DPS 0.2247)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 4256630*0.105/1114505 = 0.401, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.15/13.01 (DPS 0.2247)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 3546869*0.12/1100000 = 0.3869, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15/13.78 (DPS 0.2247)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = (0.0745+0.0983)*2 = 0.3456, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.1/15.03 (DPS 0.1975)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0745*4 = 0.298, estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.65/14.44 (DPS 0.1975)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0801*4*1.1 = 0.3524, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.57/17.26 (DPS 0.1975)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0764*4*1.1 = 0.3362(deduct 16 million other income for adjustment), estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.64/17.31 (DPS 0.1975)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.06*4*1.1 = 0.264(associates increasing loss), estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.49/21.41 (DPS 0.149)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.3233*0.95 = 0.3071, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.12/16.55 (DPS 0.229)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.3429*0.9 = 0.3086 (10% drop from 0.3429), estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.24/14.81 (DPS 0.229)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.086*4 = 0.344, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.97/12.89 (DPS 0.233)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0758*4 = 0.3032, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.72/11.36 (DPS 0.233)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.068*4 = 0.272, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.18/11.6 (DPS 0.1855)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0695*4 = 0.278, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.07/10.27 (DPS 0.1855)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.069*4 = 0.276, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.37/7.63 (DPS 0.1855)

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