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Monday, October 15, 2012

KLCI Stock - MISC / 3816 - 2012 Quarter 2

MISC BERHAD



Company Description
MISC BERHAD is a Malaysia-based international shipping line. The principal activities of the Company consist of ship owning, ship operating, other shipping related activities, owning and operating offshore floating services, as well as marine repair, marine conversation and engineering & construction works. The ultimate holding company of the Company is Petroliam Nasional Berhad. It is organized into four business segments: energy related shipping, which involves the provision of liquefied natural gas (LNG) services, petroleum tanker services, and chemical tanker services; other energy businesses, which involves the operation and maintenance of offshore floating terminals, and marine repair, marine conversion and engineering and construction works; integrated liner logistics, which consists of liner services, haulage, trucking and warehousing and agency businesses, and non-shipping, which is engaged in marine education and training, and other diversified businesses.

Company Info
Listing Date1987-02-23
Market Capital (Capital Size)19,015,758,618 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00
BoardMain
SectorTrading/Services
Major IndustryEnergy Related Shipping
Sub IndustryOffshore & Heavy Engineering
Websitehttp://www.misc.com.my

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now4.26/0.3234 = 13.17 (Moderate)
Target Price0.3234*14.5 = 4.69 (PE 14.5, EPS 0.3234)
DecisionBUY if stock price sustain and uptrend above 4.16 or wait rebound at lower price
Comment
Revenue increased 3.4% but lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 4%, eps largely increased from loss to earn and also 3 times higher than preceding year corresponding quarter, cash generated from operating and investing enough to cover financing expenses but still generated more cash from financing activities and spent 3.9% of Group cash to cover investing expenses, gross margin improved QOQ, although liquidity ratio is low but Group manage to meet current obligation through quick inventory turnover and receivables collection with longer payables payment period, higher gearing ratio indicate through higher leverage mainly payables to generate more income, benefit from longer payables payment period than receivables and inventory which conserves cash
First Support Price4.25
Second Support Price4.16
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
Jupiter Target Price4.6 (2012-05-21)
Affin Target Price4.7 (2012-08-17)
OSK Target Price6.45 (2012-08-17)
CIMB Target Price4.42 (2012-10-08)
ECM Target Price5.01 (2012-10-08)
HLG Target Price4.45 (2012-10-08)
HwangDBS Target Price6.2 (2012-10-08)
Kenanga Target Price4.66 (2012-10-08)
Maybank Target Price4.8 (2012-10-08)
MIDF Target Price6.01 (2012-10-08)
RHB Target Price6.47 (2012-10-08)
TA Target Price4.87 (2012-10-08)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity-7.03%
Dividend Yield-
Gross Profit Margin17.59%
Operating Profit Margin20.52%
Net Profit Margin16.63%
Tax Rate-
Asset Turnover0.2481
Net Asset Value Per Share4.69
Net Tangible Asset per share4.48
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.0
Cash Per Share0.89
Liquidity Current Ratio1.0779
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.0185
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.5393
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.9394
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.4695
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale5.5%
Days to sell the inventory23
Days to collect the receivables106
Days to pay the payables232

Technical Analysis
SMA 104.3 (Uptrend)
SMA 204.256 (Downtrend 1 day)
SMA 504.3 (Downtrend)
SMA 1004.319 (Same)
SMA 2004.848 (Downtrend)
MACD (26d/12d)0.00475 ( 0.002763 )
Signal (9)-0.004695 ( 0.002361 )
MACD Histogram0.009445 (Bullish trend 21 days)
Bolinger Upper Band4.384
Bolinger Lower Band4.128

My notes based on 2012 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- Lower revenue than quarter ended 30 June 2011 largely due to lower revenue in Petroleum and Chemical businesses following lower earning days and softer petroleum freight rates. Despite improvement in both Aframax and VLCC market freight rates averaging between 21.6% to 65.6% quarter on quarter, MISC's petroleum business experienced an 11.5% revenue decrease primarily due to softer blended rates achieved and reduced operating and earning days. Lower earning days from lesser number of operating vessels in Chemical business further contributed to the decline in revenue for the quarter

- However, commencement of a new offshore project, MOPU 2, in August 2011 and development of new heavy engineering projects, combined with higher progress of existing heavy engineering projects, have helped to mitigate the impact of lower revenue in Petroleum and Chemical businesses

- Higher pbt than FY11 June driven mainly by improved performance in the Offshore business , higher contributions from Tank Terminal segment and lower lower losses in Petroleum business following one-off settlement received from early redelivery of vessels on time charter contracts

- Higher revenue and pbt than FY12Q1 mainly contributed by higher Heavy Engineering revenue from higher number of projects developed and improved performance of Petroleum business, due to one-off settlement received from early redelivery of vessels on time charter contract, and higher contributions from the Offshore and Logistics businesses

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = 22208770*0.065/4463794 = 0.3234, estimate PE on current price 4.26 = 13.17
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 400000*4/4464000 = 0.3584, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.59/10.77
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q7 result announced = 317473*4/4464000 = 0.2845(based on profit from all segment except Liner), estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.82/13.5 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q6 result announced = 363732/4464000*4 = 0.3259(exclude USD400 million costs), estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.96/16.08 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q5 result announced = 0.3(roe ~6% per year due to an improvement from preceding quarter), estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.5/15.5 (DPS 0.25)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.05*4 = 0.2, estimate highest/lowest PE = 39.2/34.35 (DPS 0.35)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0691*4 = 0.2764(profit margin 10% per quarter), estimate highest/lowest PE = 30.57/25.69 (DPS 0.35)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.04(exclude 257 million from other income)*4*1.05 = 0.168, estimate highest/lowest PE = 52.08/48.63 (DPS 0.35)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0509*4 = 0.2036, estimate highest/lowest PE = 42.98/37.77 (DPS 0.35)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0457*4 = 0.1828, estimate highest/lowest PE = 48.03/40.65 (DPS 0.35)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0457*4 = 0.1828, estimate highest/lowest PE = 47.37/40.59 (DPS 0.35)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0544*4 = 0.2176, estimate highest/lowest PE = 42/37.91 (DPS 0.35)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.058*4 = 0.232, estimate highest/lowest PE = 37.07/33.62 (DPS 0.35)

MISC latest news (English)

MISC latest news (Chinese)

Financial Quarter Summary
a_dateyearqrth_pricel_pricedivroec_roerevc_revpbtc_pbtprofc_profepsc_epsassetliabminoequicfocficffcashfcfnetfinalsharec_sharem_capdategros_moper_mprof_mvatasset_tpenavpsntapsp/ntapscpsl_curl_quil_cashg_deg_daavg_winv_drec_dpay_d
2012-08-1620122N/AN/A-1.67%0.37%2486633479101541362439755380953841290.08530.01884186079819652028128872322208770428950382978206419414088245972160447398043544637944463794200424352012-06-3017.59%20.52%16.63%-0.2481-4.694.481.00.891.07791.01850.53930.93940.46955.5%23106232
2012-05-16201214.873.86-2.04%2.04%240391124039113738503738504650804650800.10420.1042398025121869445413311652110805825135032265543227242158325740051006277320955544640004464000175881602012-03-3111.11%4.33%15.55%-0.2636-4.434.250.930.721.05650.98320.45690.94530.46973.8%2896216
2012-02-22201175.743.94-7.25%6.16%2878779850593316518901222012174352514814830.39060.331941217061191312711288723220857901042715193938716337493418062896672737077415513944640004464000258912002011-12-318.39%6.15%57.38%-0.2672-4.664.471.30.930.74130.69750.41880.91990.4642-23.3%2374207
2011-11-24201166.285.34-0.59%1.09%261783456271542292434298781409642620410.03160.05874214314618059473125081424083673478759132780216655183430736849043816475424721144640004464000273643202011-09-30-10.40%8.76%13.69%0.2652-5.114.921.250.951.11331.04340.59550.79090.42857.2%26103215
2011-08-18201157.34.9-0.51%0.51%259068325906832022602022601231291231290.02760.02763893589415682807120557623253087485805677017236605335342319121245393339881644640004464000325872002011-06-3023.09%15.13%7.81%6.12%0.2991-4.944.751.540.761.26151.18660.62290.71130.402812.3%2194201
2011-05-11201148.26.50.11.28%7.78%292435512325639222657224426330787918707510.06900.41913803787615250538115497322787338223485140063262627426775162817714754398901335272744640004464000326318402011-03-3117.12%9.45%7.61%-0.32417.44324.854.661.570.751.33871.25860.66550.7050.400913.8%3086274
2011-02-24201138.197.22-5.75%9.06%3045585940128415792882466920138128821786300.30940.48804021152716289916108150823921611224061342099772215137747551219693644184501329101144640004464000332568002010-12-3116.06%6.38%51.85%0.64%0.316-5.124.921.510.741.03430.97130.59310.71320.40511.5%5060606
2010-11-24201128.87.450.151.54%3.32%308518763556994162908876323693627973420.08270.1786376879301541374335603522274187111190345874981472854741673434755954948449246828544640004464000383904002010-09-30-15.42%13.49%2.20%0.3372-4.914.711.830.551.0340.96530.52820.70320.4091.3%1159113
2010-08-19201119.18.52-1.78%1.78%327051232705124713424713424279804279800.09590.095940749314169407913806992380852385431695217182555781274497855180410763233444607944460794395226342010-06-30-16.48%14.41%2.18%0.3228-5.255.041.761.711.88061.81521.43630.72310.415735.6%1155129
2010-05-06201049.18.040.20.93%3.24%3307432137750742861529119141964356820460.05090.176741060188170239793742372403620938005864721931532730334431229213454405958784908038607893860789340521582010-03-31-11.88%8.65%18.34%0.335549.92656.135.881.52.031.3431.29781.03080.71950.414619.0%1053116
2010-02-24201039.137.78-0.81%2.30%3047105104676421916276257621701014856110.04570.13053706717817717259340824193499193169151330554061478307168813638974911299677737198003719800295724102009-12-31-8.61%6.29%1.69%0.3903-5.114.851.640.810.83750.77860.36380.9320.478-9.2%1386124
2009-11-23201029.017.770.150.39%1.50%35271037420537160638434136820623155110.02210.08483505284815052758452716200000902007728210662614140313581267988981512929206833837198003719800327342402009-09-30-7.27%4.55%19.84%0.4307-5.254.991.760.561.05760.96360.38140.77010.42942.1%1376104
2009-08-20201019.498.6-1.11%1.11%389343438934342734982734982334492334490.06280.062837145215160740274174822107118817706431342072916613659392428571336910399630237198003719800322134682009-06-30-9.11%7.02%0.76%0.4315-5.555.281.641.071.01870.93090.53440.77830.43270.9%1768113
2009-05-11200948.958.150.20.77%7.31%399900115783466186884155625614390813665920.03870.367436662464155902953400962107216934091313929907207695921692535207761556183372543637198003719800316183002009-03-31-6.37%4.67%6.24%0.430523.13665.575.31.61.01.10681.05410.56570.7520.42524.5%97490
2009-02-24200938.758.05-1.34%6.54%367923611784465312146136937224962912226840.06710.328735838926156830813622382015584532645953454473217652520825091898781986647406915637198003719800318042902008-12-31-11.17%8.48%10.27%0.4274-5.325.051.691.091.10111.02810.57530.79230.43764.7%1576118
2008-11-20200928.98.150.152.41%5.21%4455932810522949785310572264501979730550.12100.261634879205145284783536382035072725814562002960142482420720395784962003320407535937198003719800310603302008-09-30-13.40%11.17%2.81%0.4288-5.385.111.631.11.16161.07570.58230.72650.41657.6%1884133
2008-08-18200919.07.8-2.80%2.80%364929736492975593735593735228585228580.14060.140630998918112434113022651975550713058629842821951011997481321580126479212396037198003719800325482502008-06-30-18.07%15.33%1.76%0.4412-5.234.971.760.571.25271.14370.50460.5780.36277.8%1572107
2008-05-12200849.68.00.24.05%12.82%353131212947492841891259942776448424203580.20550.650729010032103248252740611868520740392092850164134242821177441189045153383196436137198003719800353381002008-03-31-22.67%23.84%4.09%0.446314.60044.954.692.030.531.28171.1740.52970.56080.35598.1%146796
2008-02-21200839.77.4-2.34%8.77%33199679416180492139175753644099716558750.11860.445229721686109668692537541875481732266023180726357759217949445876311883186761137198003719800353381002007-12-31-17.42%14.82%2.33%0.4132-4.974.72.020.51.1131.01730.45460.59280.3693.8%1567114
2007-11-222008210.49.20.153.39%6.43%31749946096213665218126539763926212148780.17190.3266296825761042263823635119259938197842923081971604332214154329768169335204481937198003719800360820602007-09-30-20.41%20.95%1.54%0.3972-5.114.842.00.551.23921.15080.5730.54790.35117.2%136399
2007-08-162008110.19.5-3.05%3.05%292121929212196001796001795756165756160.15470.1547288589909399075251829194599159952929585677518822181973672538463217973437198003719800N/A2007-06-30-22.43%20.55%2.48%0.2985-5.164.89N/A0.591.44811.34710.69760.48930.325716.3%1884142
2007-05-1020074N/AN/A0.2N/AN/A286461911198945746898293031070259028520250.18890.7667279547869074190241435188805963633630360954410451213238599240861021035221756437198003719800340361702007-03-31-25.41%26.07%3.57%0.203611.9345.014.731.930.61.57031.47290.82140.48680.324627.1%23110187
2007-02-2820073N/AN/A-N/AN/A28276238334326963260218341194447921494330.25390.5778280835969504963222930185786332763691313414467203933011993704531042492225870737198003719800327342402006-12-31-24.80%34.07%0.43%0.1007-4.934.651.890.611.53521.44190.77790.51780.338555.0%46243409

Financial Quarter Balance Sheet
yearqrtDeferred tax assets (A-0)Finance lease receivables (A-0)Intangible assets (A-0)Investment in associated companies (A-0)Investment in jointly controlled entity (A-0)Investment properties (A-0)Offshore floating assets (A-0)Other non-current financial assets (A-0)Prepaid lease payments (A-0)Property, plant and equipment (A-0)Ships (A-0)Amount due from associated companies (A-1)Amount due from jointly controlled entity (A-1)Amounts due from Group Companies (A-1)Cash and cash equivalents (A-1)Current asset classified as held for sales (A-1)Derivative assets (A-1)Inventories (A-1)Trade receivables (A-1)Deferred tax liabilities (L-0)Derivative liabilities (L-0)Loans & borrowings (L-0)Provisions (L-0)Amount due to associated companies (L-1)Amounts due to Group Companies (L-1)Amounts due to Jointly Controlled Entities (L-1)Derivative liabilities (L-1)Liabilities directly associated with assets classified as held for sale (L-1)Loans & borrowings (L-1)Provision for taxation (L-1)Trade and other payables (L-1)Minority interest (M-1)
20122480641066490913621733565748-84344244934912506521760905180728189252200352038783980435532059-4381532580496477721457921138639969103921732729182206--30004004531542236411288723
20121499840319082654824963475570-7610810112128877663153475017323021100726995420855632095559462401525149672271747838091544151071862071240322461961070184--29658975553539117351331165
20117524142073185515823223538305-770624011599957836915226841857266411782169581415444155139519688-4349951885850452671838198332604647331300317638459292327-58595565921739345801288723
20116121082194388598392113515118-74616114322287854315021452012091117351184485195510424721142124-49855417713754971421301410664012-323622538337572980937629881333185840408551250814
20115118441929018411514833187971-75837034932508168024088841725047219541444599159275339881680316-4083341390261175592182189990243-317671818340882--15860363642534184501205576
20114117812127888486996052820490-6794926498496824871454129185694681420915369676178335272784825-4039731309515799519686410008122-24195915031209-773912472614305836467211154973
2011314467-87636212503348195-726544979253912386013930412065765536071210434979193291011--34934414757854405723462910462710-31297024175855--12595244462340951481081508
2011214324-9032665743223947-681056684933112418513063271962306822841061404393732468285--32126514949954647327246910421475-29876637080862--1240366261863256555356035
2011114821-9389012253874455-69731408969221251631285172196450228463154876250214763233420508-34790215791684426624914711333523-556283475116491--1093339713043943684380699
201044803-9632982715551911-69112179562291259891260933200568499597108372199594784908038715-3445601676326301491852559194263-7380129397128998--3577411775393693587374237
201033723-9606893026596502--9773031091561693695258242286393742932174192996777--4856853118289240391608479295394-38885305976385--3664074421524397421340824
201023732-9739593002348794--5028461095011629032257461516768393733112452068338153-5098492800105246741687029435925-4419587771253--1422665454823890861452716
201013670-9973343209324015--5028291105031563664260219523076515141227313996302153-6565802787683246481203878450878-2729472243798--2978586412494404528417482
200944133-10235323320311754-48065986456841116401089582213770274638545413132013725436153-3470242844201229032337318747646-4821429981210--3104324526213380041340096
200934033-9946285123625823--28651411181612040722481890278244187328584340691568359-5162012858759480941223658439509-4274497652190--2899389122544105241362238
200923819-9941403759573854--319149112290116096523581003116894075849358740753598359-601284289919048456512477429708-4204651323331--2480725253084420367353638
200914443-96828945861331490--33071211144510913852188339985623236313867021239608359-458799250245647974392036946699-2371511071109--959233240423171673302265
200844606-9624322582181649--112553411156897481920893758575030052135797196436119793-399584219774747636-6568769-3802571812036--959358357822650261274061
200833478-10004703489975454--2300951156478497582197120986923234439408186761170896-393231215990464113-6794949-3561555182131--1065095215952959907253754
200823504-1023605313787535248850-2364431174318224192212910578082085989395204481923635-315595192061964270-6789454-3380686402521--1086663223452385365236351
200812933-1036226258773755149278-23665811811977061921378070829024346102806218064638013-315762185708664297-6208692-53726136384--558355222362478676251829
200742941-1041424268550335849500-236077118798724429210344678028871661827221841538015-262974164313264183-6309140-2530783953--495252256312099056241435
200731501-1066991507059-50845-233312-7994282096469215223-123660225972744088-270824174624662855-6537050-515670597---505710185842305011222930

Financial Quarter Income Statement
yearqrtRevenueIncome tax expenseCost of salesFinance/interest costsOther incomeAdministrative/Operating expensesMinority interestShare of profit/ (loss) of associatesGain/loss on disposal of subsidiariesImpairment lossDiscontinued operationGain/loss on disposal of shipsShare of net profit of jointly controlled entityLiner Exit provisions
20122248663323067204933097595248298132105557382-43350448541248158410-
20121240391135927213672695636923713473595530315-116380--46409220455
201172878779440832637111988042194953719314755230-266268-15365612781452723
20116261783431392-94136269726258815756887316-27163--50823-
201152590683123741992376868049757730403366757122--177337566469008-
2011429243551263024236728732023433055485997852216236434456648-9912076309-
20113304558510094255643089454116061629551879069491436581120355--38871-
2011230851879150-834531153842724984377789----24165-
20111327051210261-8664833717930687033310164----18938-
20104330743252493-10254779325294408837224214-49582-708511259-
2010330471053244-9699647036283178718282160---026109-
20102352710331869-790632905632996884670775---198032958-
2010138934342090-88276945463633269379599---848915543-
20094399900111666-99254101152384535231310139----31476-
20093367923632048-1044854944133175673046911----5510-
20092445593213990-9988612410339829843366661----627-
2009136492979862-9926295416308524426653409----1243-
20084353131234458-90133189131292002142949407---1271614034-
20083331996711471-9202324729276635639671457---05365-
20082317499410241-7927668288259539715715771---2718368655-
20081292121914862-839531126662378750970184---261372944-
20074286461926663-93849109282224599317645420---9445118808-
2007328276234171-8193158768218519114610155---3421081728-

Financial Quarter Segments Revenue
yearqrtOthersEnergy Related ShippingOther Energy BusinessesIntegrated Liner Logistics
201222077081442859938322-
20121-1512580689546201785
2011718689715875731005183472920
201161959271548097684231581433
2011532067415911991190013548782
2011439348415318491166958619032
2011365163515509641550949595307
2011241046115555201269588670540
2011139398116733641359562631567
20104-16583551069870579207
20103-1632560689673724872
20102-16334501118710774943
20101-17053011443035745098
20094-19134661224897860637
20093-20465935573001075343
20092-21220839711801362669
20091-19414244565121251361
20084-17869905301231224132
20083-16710293948481254090
20082-15619104428611170223
20081-15822103382321000777
200742518491521966132113958690
200732502411524769129628922986

Financial Quarter Segments Profit
yearqrtOthersEnergy Related ShippingOther Energy BusinessesIntegrated Liner Logistics
20122165445240129156836-
2012195936244788171735308390
2011768602106508142363236051
2011672841188989174743137170
2011519460265518148295175800
20114103482337547180202114113
201131798258994153737220290
201121141334253324181397346
20111111223409835152648134718
2010418820413119233794272646
2010324801438068164565315478
2010234660428015188417325301
2010129682473165166504314640
20094530480380231904419479
2009315982553374202544328826
2009231095600574136629171247
200911135358370613532970919
200846037166193912077132723
20083271374962696887340335
20082450094723309034340203
20081396375681346513017766
20074508245657771154314123
20073219586515503860810916

Short form reference
a_date = announcement date, yr = financial year end, qrt = quarter
h_price = stock highest price during the quarter, l_price = stock lowest price during the quarter
div = dividend recommend or declare in the quarter, roe = return on equity
c_roe = cumulative of return on equity during the financial year
rev = revenue in the current quarter, c_rev = cumulative of revenue during the financial year
pbt = profit before tax in the current quarter, c_pbt = cumulative of profit before tax during the financial year
eps = earnings per share in the current quarter, c_eps = cumulative of earnings per share during the financial year
asset = total asset, liab = total liability, mino = minority interest, equi = total equity
cfo = net cash flow from operating activities, cfi = net cash flow from investing activities
cff = net cash flow from financing activities, cash = cash and cash equivalents as at beginning of financial year
final = cash and cash equivalents as at current financial period ended
share = diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares
c_share = cumulative of diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares during the financial year
m_cap = market capital at announcement date of quarterly report, date = current financial period ended date
prof_m = profit margin, vat = income tax rate, pe = price earning per share ratio of recent four quarter
navps = net asset value per share, ntaps = net tangible asset per share, cps = cash per share
l_cur = liquidity current ratio, l_qui = liquidity quick ratio, l_cash = liquidity cash ratio
g_de = gearing debt to equity ratio, g_da = gearing debt to assets ratio
avg_w = working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
inv_d = days to sell the inventory, rec_d = days to collect the receivables
pay_d = days to pay the payables


CURRENT


CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING
ANNUAL REPORTS


HISTORICAL


CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING


ARCHIVES


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