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Saturday, October 27, 2012

KLCI Stock - SUNWAY / 5211 - 2012 Quarter 2

Company Info 
Market Capital (Capital Size)3,102,012,009 (Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis 
Forecast P/E now2.4/0.3025 = 7.93 (Moderate)
Target Price0.3025*9.5 = 2.87 (PE 9.5, EPS 0.3025)
DecisionBUY if stock price sustain and rebound at short term moving average price
Revenue increased 22.3% but lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 0.6%, eps increased 139.3% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 70.8%, cash generated from operating not enough to cover financing expenses hence increased borrowings and spent 7.9% of Group cash to cover all other expenses, operating margin improved to above 10%, liquidity ratio indicate the ratio right enough which not sitting too much cash and enough to meet current obligation, although higher gearing ratio is high risk but as long as business still good performance then is utilize higher leverage to return more profit, all accounting of turnover period stiil acceptable range, higher inventory and property development cost can indicate still good prospect in near future
First Support Price2.35
Second Support Price2.25

Research House
Affin Target Price2.9 (2012-05-10)
OSK Target Price3.31 (2012-05-30)
CIMB Target Price2.79 (2012-08-29)
Maybank Target Price2.68 (2012-08-29)
RHB Target Price2.94 (2012-08-29)
Kenanga Target Price2.6 (2012-10-04)
AMMB Target Price2.6 (2012-10-10)
ECM Target Price2.7 (2012-10-10)
HLG Target Price2.93 (2012-10-10)
HwangDBS Target Price2.55 (2012-10-10)
MIDF Target Price2.6 (2012-10-10)
TA Target Price3.47 (2012-10-10)

Accounting Ratio 
Return on Equity6.53%
Dividend Yield-
Gross Profit Margin-
Operating Profit Margin10.46%
Net Profit Margin19.39%
Tax Rate15.71%
Asset Turnover0.4428
Net Asset Value Per Share2.51
Net Tangible Asset per share2.25
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.0
Cash Per Share0.61
Liquidity Current Ratio1.4331
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.9048
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.3062
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio1.4925
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.5762
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale30.2%
Days to sell the inventory152
Days to collect the receivables146
Days to pay the payables231

Technical Analysis 
SMA 102.34 (Uptrend)
SMA 202.314 (Uptrend 30 days)
SMA 502.267 (Uptrend)
SMA 1002.279 (Uptrend)
SMA 2002.394 (Same)
MACD (26d/12d)0.031901 ( 0.002805 )
Signal (9)0.020836 ( 0.002766 )
MACD Histogram0.011065 (Bullish trend 30 days)
Bolinger Upper Band2.424
Bolinger Lower Band2.204

My notes based on 2012 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- Lower revenue and pbt from Property Development segment than FY11Q2 mainly due to lower sales achieved in Malaysia and China. However, the lower property development profit was partly mitigated by the higher profit contribution from the Singapore property projects

- Lower pbt from Property Investment segment than FY11Q2 due to the higher interest cost although got higher pbt by approximately RM6.6 million at operation level

- Lower pbt from Quarry segment than FY11Q2 due to the lower contribution from its overseas operation in Trinidad & Tobago and higher operating losses in Vietnam

- Higher revenue and pbt from Other segment mainly due to the contribution in the healthcare unit which continued to show improved performance and better profit contribution from the building materials unit

- Higher revenue from Property Development segment than FY12Q1 mainly due to the higher progressive billings from the integrated development in Sunway Nexis and Sunway Velocity and the condominium projects in Sunway South Quay however lower pbt due to lower contribution from Singapore was due to timing difference which resulted in lower progress billing in one of the projects

- Higher revenue and pbt from Property Investment segment than FY12Q1 was largely due to seasonality factors as the leisure and hospitality businesses under the property investment segment achieved higher visitorship and occupancy rates

- Higher revenue from Construction segment than FY12Q1 was largely due to improved progress billings from the local projects undertaken in Malaysia

- Higher revenue and pbt from Quarry segment than FY12Q1 was higher due to the improved performance from its local operation

- Higher pbt from 36.9% associate of the Group following Sunway REIT's fair value gain amounting to RM230.2 million

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = 3553909*0.11/1292505 = 0.3025, estimate PE on current price 2.4 = 7.93
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 3406537*0.105/1292505 = 0.2767, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.93/7.88
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 3352934*0.11/1292505 = 0.2854, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.64/7.43
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = (0.0715+0.044)*2*1.05 = 0.2426, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.34/9.15

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