This is my analysis to KLSE stock based on each quarter report. Objective of the blog is to provide a platform for easy visualize company previous quarter reports.
My notes based on 2012 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt than FY11Q3 mainly due to higher FFB production as well as higher investment income offset by lower crude palm oil ("CPO") and palm kernel ("PK") prices by 4% and 28% respectively
- Lower revenue and pbt than FY12Q2 mainly as a result of lower FFB production as well as lower oil extraction rate ("OER") due to wet weather
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q3 result announced = 1043164*0.09/202765 = 0.463, estimate PE on current price 7.4 = 15.42(DPS 0.26)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = (0.1156*3+0.1426)*1.05 = 0.5139, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.06/12.41 (DPS 0.275)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 0.1426*4*0.9 = 0.5134, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.66/11.2 (DPS 0.25)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.1125*4 = 0.45, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.27/12.89 (DPS 0.25)
My notes based on 2012 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Higher pbt from Property development division than FY11Q4 due to higher profit margin generated from the property sold despite dropped in volume
- Lower pbt from Cultivation of oil palm division mainly due to increase in the estate expenditures incurred for replanting activity
- Higher revenue and pbt from Property development division than FY12Q3 mainly due to completion of our on-going phases of Taman Lagenda
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q4 result announced = 198954*0.075/758310 = 0.0197, estimate PE on current price 0.19 = 9.39(DPS 0.005)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q3 result announced = 0.0047*4 = 0.0188, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.37/8.51 (DPS 0.015)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = 0.025(recent 4th qrt cum_eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.8/5.6 (DPS 0.015)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 0.0227, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.15/6.89 (DPS 0.015)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = (0.0212+0.018)/2 = 0.0196, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.44/8.16 (DPS 0.015)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.017(recent 4 quarters eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.06/9.41 (DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0178*0.9 = 0.016, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.19/9.06 (DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0178 (based on last year), estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.99/7.87 (DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0155 (13% drop from 0.0178), estimate highest/lowest PE = 10/9.03 (DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = (0.0218+0.0289+0.019)/3 = 0.0232, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.9/5.6 (DPS 0.015)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0031*4 = 0.0124, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.5/10.48 (DPS 0.015)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0042*4 = 0.0168, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.52/7.74 (DPS 0.015)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0031*4 = 0.0124, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.11/8.06 (DPS 0.015)
Short form reference a_date = announcement date, yr = financial year end, qrt = quarter h_price = stock highest price during the quarter, l_price = stock lowest price during the quarter div = dividend recommend or declare in the quarter, roe = return on equity c_roe = cumulative of return on equity during the financial year rev = revenue in the current quarter, c_rev = cumulative of revenue during the financial year pbt = profit before tax in the current quarter, c_pbt = cumulative of profit before tax during the financial year eps = earnings per share in the current quarter, c_eps = cumulative of earnings per share during the financial year asset = total asset, liab = total liability, mino = minority interest, equi = total equity cfo = net cash flow from operating activities, cfi = net cash flow from investing activities cff = net cash flow from financing activities, cash = cash and cash equivalents as at beginning of financial year final = cash and cash equivalents as at current financial period ended share = diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares c_share = cumulative of diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares during the financial year m_cap = market capital at announcement date of quarterly report, date = current financial period ended date prof_m = profit margin, vat = income tax rate, pe = price earning per share ratio of recent four quarter navps = net asset value per share, ntaps = net tangible asset per share, cps = cash per share l_cur = liquidity current ratio, l_qui = liquidity quick ratio, l_cash = liquidity cash ratio g_de = gearing debt to equity ratio, g_da = gearing debt to assets ratio avg_w = working capital per thousand Ringgit sale inv_d = days to sell the inventory, rec_d = days to collect the receivables pay_d = days to pay the payables
My notes based on 2012 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt mainly due to higher contribution from its principal subsidiary, the multilevel marketing (“MLM”) division and higher rental income and lower R&D costs from other division
- Despite lower revenue in the wholesale division, higher profit in the current quarter was generated from its higher sales in high margin products. The retail division has no significant changes in its revenue and pre-tax profit, as the division has rationalised its unprofitable outlets and concurrently also opened more new outlets to tap into a wider market
- The profit in the MLM mainly attributable to higher sales from its main and new products, coupled with effective incentive trip campaign. The MLM division has seen its performance improving since the second quarter and the Group believes with the continuous effort in enhancing its existing marketing strategies and intensified members’ recruitment efforts, the MLM division’s growth momentum is sustainable
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q3 result announced = 222172*0.16/199318 = 0.1783, estimate PE on current price 2.18 = 11.81(DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = 0.0394*4*1.1 = 0.1734, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.52/9.95 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 0.0387*4*1.05 = 0.1625, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.72/9.38 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = (0.0428+0.0318)*2*1.05 = 0.1567, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.37/9.41 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0318*4*1.05 = 0.1336, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.33/14.93 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0307*4*0.95 = 0.1167, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.91/18.25 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0391*4 = 0.1564, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.01/17.46 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0714*4 = 0.2856*1.1(10% QbQ improvement adjustment) = 0.3142, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.16/8.78 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.3729, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.42/9.17 (DPS 0.18)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.2424*4 = 0.9696, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.78/7.44(DPS 0.42)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.2217*4 = 0.8868, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.54/6.33 (DPS 0.42)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1778*4 = 0.7112, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.44/5.76 (DPS 0.4)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.1463*4 = 0.5852, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.9/5.06 (DPS 0.4)
Short form reference a_date = announcement date, yr = financial year end, qrt = quarter h_price = stock highest price during the quarter, l_price = stock lowest price during the quarter div = dividend recommend or declare in the quarter, roe = return on equity c_roe = cumulative of return on equity during the financial year rev = revenue in the current quarter, c_rev = cumulative of revenue during the financial year pbt = profit before tax in the current quarter, c_pbt = cumulative of profit before tax during the financial year eps = earnings per share in the current quarter, c_eps = cumulative of earnings per share during the financial year asset = total asset, liab = total liability, mino = minority interest, equi = total equity cfo = net cash flow from operating activities, cfi = net cash flow from investing activities cff = net cash flow from financing activities, cash = cash and cash equivalents as at beginning of financial year final = cash and cash equivalents as at current financial period ended share = diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares c_share = cumulative of diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares during the financial year m_cap = market capital at announcement date of quarterly report, date = current financial period ended date prof_m = profit margin, vat = income tax rate, pe = price earning per share ratio of recent four quarter navps = net asset value per share, ntaps = net tangible asset per share, cps = cash per share l_cur = liquidity current ratio, l_qui = liquidity quick ratio, l_cash = liquidity cash ratio g_de = gearing debt to equity ratio, g_da = gearing debt to assets ratio avg_w = working capital per thousand Ringgit sale inv_d = days to sell the inventory, rec_d = days to collect the receivables pay_d = days to pay the payables
My notes based on 2012 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- The increase in profit before taxation from construction division due to higher work progress from the Electrified Double Tracking Project
- The increase in profit before taxation from property division due to higher profits from existing projects in Malaysia and Celadon City’s land sale to Aeon Co. of Japan
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = 4045187*0.145/2123909 = 0.2762, estimate PE on current price 3.59 = 12.56(DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = (0.0626+0.0585)*2 = 0.2422, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.77/12.1 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = (0.0542+0.0585)*2 = 0.2254, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.86/11.85 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.177*1.1 = 0.1947, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.77/12.89 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0439*4*1.05 = 0.1844, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.77/18.71 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0789*2*1.05 = 0.1657, estimate highest/lowest PE = 24.98/20.64 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0371*4*1.1 = 0.1632, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.84/20.47 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0361*4 = 0.1444, estimate highest/lowest PE = 26.73/20.78 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0336*4 = 0.1344, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.14/19.2 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0311*4 = 0.1244, estimate highest/lowest PE = 22.83/19.77 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0215*4 = 0.086, estimate highest/lowest PE = 38.02/30.81 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0231*4 = 0.0924, estimate highest/lowest PE = 36.36/27.81 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0244*4 = 0.0976, estimate highest/lowest PE = 28.59/19.26 (DPS 0.08)
Not interested unless MACD moving up from very low and buying volume is a lot stronger than selling volume
Comment
Revenue decreased 0.7% and but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 3.2%, eps decreased 1.8% and was second consecutive quarter decreasing and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 14.1%, cash generated from operating enough for financing expenses but investing expenses still spent 11% of Group cash, gross profit margin decreasing, lower liquidity ratio but still at very strong level now, slightly higher gearing ratio at below moderate level now, debt ratio increasing near to recent year high, all accounting repayment period is good, affecting by higher cost of revenue
First Support Price
16.0
Second Support Price
15.0
Risk Rating
MODERATE
Research House
Maybank Target Price
14.1 (2010-12-01)
TA Target Price
14.2 (2011-02-23)
ECM Target Price
14.14 (2011-08-18)
Maybank Target Price
7.5 (2011-11-24)
RHB Target Price
16.39 (2012-01-09)
AMMB Target Price
17.62 (2012-02-02)
HwangDBS Target Price
18.5 (2012-02-23)
MIDF Target Price
16.5 (2012-02-23)
OSK Target Price
17 (2012-02-23)
CIMB Target Price
18.49 (2012-03-26)
Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity
12.51%
Dividend Yield
2.98%
Gross Profit Margin
48.42%
Operating Profit Margin
46.31%
Net Profit Margin
50.43%
Tax Rate
25.96%
Asset Turnover
0.3402
Net Asset Value Per Share
4.32
Net Tangible Asset per share
4.32
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share
3.82
Cash Per Share
1.32
Liquidity Current Ratio
5.2232
Liquidity Quick Ratio
5.0508
Liquidity Cash Ratio
4.4004
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio
0.2457
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio
0.1957
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
68.6%
Days to sell the inventory
20
Days to collect the receivables
39
Days to pay the payables
86
Technical Analysis
SMA 20
16.671 (Downtrend 1 day)
SMA 50
16.276 (Uptrend)
SMA 100
14.968 (Uptrend)
SMA 200
13.819 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d)
0.114513 ( 0.000838 )
Signal (9)
0.126314 ( 0.00295 )
MACD Histogram
0.011801 (Bearish trend 27 days)
My notes based on 2011 quarter 7 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue than FY11Q3 mainly due to higher gas processing revenue and utilities sales but lower pbt mainly due to higher cost of revenue(increase in repair and maintenance cost and staff cost)
- Higher pbt than FY11Q6 mainly due to higher other income resulting from unrealised gain from the revaluation of Currency Exchange Agreement (CEA) and retranslation of term loan
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q7 result announced = 8643921*0.165/1978732 = 0.7208, estimate PE on current price 16.76 = 22.56(DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q6 result announced = (0.1954+0.177)*2 = 0.7448, estimate highest/lowest PE = 22.82/16.68 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q5 result announced = 0.1954*4 = 0.7816, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.14/15.1 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.1348*4 = 0.5392, estimate highest/lowest PE = 25.04/19.84 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.6266, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.65/16.41 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.5331*0.95 = 0.5064, estimate highest/lowest PE = 25.63/19.31 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.4612(3% dropped from 0.4755), estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.47/19.8 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.5(0.37+0.13), estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.2/18.12 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.47, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.21/19.26 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.47, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.21/19.47 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.47, estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.06/19.15 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.47, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.21/18.94 (DPS 0.05)
BUY if MACD back to uptrend and got strong buying volume than selling
Comment
Revenue increased 67.7% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 81%, eps increased 28.1% and was third consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 94.9%, cash generated from operating is more than enough to cover all expenses, better gross and operating profit margin, slightly better liquidity ratio at low level now, slightly lower gearing ratio but still at very high level now, all accounting ratio also high, lower debt ratio at historical low, higher inventory can indicate better demand of Group products
First Support Price
1.35
Second Support Price
1.25
Risk Rating
MODERATE
Research House
CIMB Target Price
1.23 (2011-11-24)
Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity
19.71%
Dividend Yield
4.20%
Gross Profit Margin
26.58%
Operating Profit Margin
15.44%
Net Profit Margin
12.82%
Tax Rate
13.29%
Asset Turnover
0.712
Net Asset Value Per Share
1.31
Net Tangible Asset per share
1.27
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share
0.98
Cash Per Share
0.63
Liquidity Current Ratio
1.3117
Liquidity Quick Ratio
0.6004
Liquidity Cash Ratio
0.2683
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio
1.8483
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio
0.6455
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
27.5%
Days to sell the inventory
293
Days to collect the receivables
197
Days to pay the payables
208
Technical Analysis
SMA 20
1.43 (Uptrend 23 days)
SMA 50
1.346 (Uptrend)
SMA 100
1.274 (Uptrend)
SMA 200
1.247 (Same)
MACD (26d/12d)
0.024385 ( 0.001364 )
Signal (9)
0.030348 ( 0.001491 )
MACD Histogram
0.005963 (Bearish trend 6 days)
My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt mainly due to increase in sales from crane segment which due to global recovery in investment in equipment and good execution of several high margin projects
- As at 16 February 2012, outstanding order book of the group is RM657.7 million of which majority is from the oil and gas cranes for the offshore oil and gas exploration and production activities. Remaining are from the shipyard, construction and wind turbine industry
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 241502*0.21/182623 = 0.2777, estimate PE on current price 1.43 = 4.93(DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.2047*0.8 = 0.1638, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.12/6.84 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0955*1.2 = 0.1146, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.08/6.94 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0217*4*1.1 = 0.0955(lower down estimate due to previous high profit was from other income), estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.43/10.99 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.1362, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.5/7.05 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.1602*0.85 = 0.1362(450 million equal to 15% decrease from 2009 Q4 cum_eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.37/5.58 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1442*0.7 = 0.1009 (30% drop from 0.1442, revenue drop and margin expect will not increase much), estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.42/7.04 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1442(10% drop from 0.1602, revenue drop and margin expect will not increase much), estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.93/4.92 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.1442, estimate highest/lowest PE = 5.76/4.99 (DPS 0.025)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.1442, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.45/5.49 (DPS 0.025)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.1442, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.11/5.72 (DPS 0.025)
Not interested unless MACD can strongly sustain in bullish trend or wait until moving up from very bearish trend
Comment
Revenue decreased 18.1% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 21.1%, eps decreased 35.2% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 31.9%, cash generated from operating is more than enough to cover all expenses, gross profit margin maintaining high, stronger liquidity ratio from moderate to high level now, lower gearing ratio at below moderate level now, debt ratio near to historical low, all accounting ratio are good, inventory increased but still consider low
First Support Price
1.0
Second Support Price
0.9
Risk Rating
HIGH
Research House
MIDF Target Price
1.05 (2012-02-23)
Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity
10.83%
Dividend Yield
5.96%
Gross Profit Margin
22.00%
Operating Profit Margin
8.71%
Net Profit Margin
9.84%
Tax Rate
11.90%
Asset Turnover
0.8909
Net Asset Value Per Share
0.92
Net Tangible Asset per share
0.92
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share
1.04
Cash Per Share
0.37
Liquidity Current Ratio
3.2971
Liquidity Quick Ratio
3.0322
Liquidity Cash Ratio
2.1733
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio
0.2072
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio
0.1716
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
39.5%
Days to sell the inventory
21
Days to collect the receivables
54
Days to pay the payables
66
Technical Analysis
SMA 20
1.002 (Uptrend 8 days)
SMA 50
0.965 (Uptrend)
SMA 100
0.905 (Uptrend)
SMA 200
0.894 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d)
0.036036 ( 0.001574 )
Signal (9)
0.024674 ( 0.002841 )
MACD Histogram
0.011362 (Bullish trend 8 days)
My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Lower revenue and pbt mainly attributed to a weaker overall demand and the lower economy of scale achieved. In addition, an impairment charge of RM1.5 million was incurred on certain plant and machineries of which are expected to go end of life by Quarter 2,2012
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 246430*0.1/266508 = 0.0925, estimate PE on current price 1.09 = 11.3(DPS 0.045)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.029*4*1.05 = 0.1218, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.09/6.03 (DPS 0.065)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0282*3*1.05+0.0241*1.05 = 0.1141, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.46/6.88 (DPS 0.045)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.1139*1.1 = 0.1253, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.53/7.05 (DPS 0.0965)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0326*4 = 0.1304(no decrease due to high tax expenses), estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.46/6.85 (DPS 0.0965)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0326*4 = 0.1304, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.97/7.67 (DPS 0.09)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.026*4 = 0.104(0.026 is average of latest recent quarter), estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.94/8.94 (DPS 0.09)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0904+0.0007+(0.0911*0.05) = 0.0957(adjustment from 0.0233-0.0226 and 5% grow adjustment), estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.61/12.85 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0226*4 = 0.0904, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.36/9.07 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0183*4 = 0.0732, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.64/8.74 (DPS 0.055)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0137*4 = 0.0548, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.78/13.05 (DPS 0.025)
PACIFIC & ORIENT BERHAD is a Malaysia-based investment holding company. The Company is also engaged in the provision of management services. The Company has four segments: insurance, information technology, investment holding, and money lending. Other segments include distribution of consumer goods, provision of sales and administrative services, and provision of management and privilege card programme services. The Company's subsidiaries include Pacific and Orient Insurance Co. Berhad, engaged in general insurance business; P and O Technologies Sdn. Bhd., offers information technology services and equipments; Pacific and Orient Distribution Sdn. Bhd., is engaged in distribution of consumer goods and provision of sales and administrative services; P and O Capital Sdn. Bhd., is engaged in money lending, and P and O Technologies Sdn. Bhd., deals in computer hardware, software and systems.
BUY if stock price go up follow with upper Bolinger band open or wait until stock price moving up from very low Bolinger band point
Comment
Revenue decreased 7.9% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 5.3%, eps decreased 94.8% and was second consecutive quarter decreasing and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 92.2%, no cash generated from operating due to placement of deposit and this move together other expenses total spent 88.5% of Group cash, largely decreased operating profit, stronger liquidity ratio at strong level now, high reinsurance assets which could turn into high revenue, insurance division affected by high claim
First Support Price
0.093
Second Support Price
0.88
Risk Rating
MODERATE
Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity
19.18%
Dividend Yield
6.01%
Gross Profit Margin
0.00%
Operating Profit Margin
3.40%
Net Profit Margin
2.46%
Tax Rate
74.71%
Asset Turnover
0.52
Net Asset Value Per Share
0.89
Net Tangible Asset per share
0.88
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share
1.22
Cash Per Share
2.46
Liquidity Current Ratio
6.7012
Liquidity Quick Ratio
5.3783
Liquidity Cash Ratio
4.3818
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio
3.705
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio
0.7875
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
147.0%
Days to sell the inventory
137
Days to collect the receivables
94
Days to pay the payables
24
Technical Analysis
SMA 20
0.952 (Uptrend 2 days)
SMA 50
0.945 (Uptrend)
SMA 100
0.842 (Uptrend)
SMA 200
0.747 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d)
0.005241 ( 6.2e-005 )
Signal (9)
0.005244 ( 1e-006 )
MACD Histogram
0.000003 (Bearish trend 1 day)
My notes based on 2012 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue than FY11Q1 mainly due to higher gross premium recorded but lower pbt mainly attributable to higher net claims incurred which includes the share of losses incurred by the Malaysian Motor Insurance Pool
- Lower revenue than FY11Q4 mainly attributable to lower gross premium recorded and lower pbt is same as above reason and higher staff costs and unrealised foreign exchange loss in IT segment
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 218854*0.15/245714 = 0.1336, estimate PE on current price 0.965 = 6.6(DPS 0.056)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.0595*4 = 0.238, estimate highest/lowest PE = 4.51/2.96 (DPS 0.056)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = (0.0368+0.0658)*2*0.75 = 0.1539, estimate highest/lowest PE = 4.96/4.12 (DPS 0.056)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0368*4*0.9 = 0.1325, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.18/5.24 (DPS 0.006)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0277*4 = 0.1108(ROE 3.5% per quarter), estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.66/6.35 (DPS 0.006)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.05*4/2 = 0.1(ROE 3.5% per quarter), estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.6/7.7
Short form reference a_date = announcement date, yr = financial year end, qrt = quarter h_price = stock highest price during the quarter, l_price = stock lowest price during the quarter div = dividend recommend or declare in the quarter, roe = return on equity c_roe = cumulative of return on equity during the financial year rev = revenue in the current quarter, c_rev = cumulative of revenue during the financial year pbt = profit before tax in the current quarter, c_pbt = cumulative of profit before tax during the financial year eps = earnings per share in the current quarter, c_eps = cumulative of earnings per share during the financial year asset = total asset, liab = total liability, mino = minority interest, equi = total equity cfo = net cash flow from operating activities, cfi = net cash flow from investing activities cff = net cash flow from financing activities, cash = cash and cash equivalents as at beginning of financial year final = cash and cash equivalents as at current financial period ended share = diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares c_share = cumulative of diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares during the financial year m_cap = market capital at announcement date of quarterly report, date = current financial period ended date prof_m = profit margin, vat = income tax rate, pe = price earning per share ratio of recent four quarter navps = net asset value per share, ntaps = net tangible asset per share, cps = cash per share l_cur = liquidity current ratio, l_qui = liquidity quick ratio, l_cash = liquidity cash ratio g_de = gearing debt to equity ratio, g_da = gearing debt to assets ratio avg_w = working capital per thousand Ringgit sale inv_d = days to sell the inventory, rec_d = days to collect the receivables pay_d = days to pay the payables
