KLCI Stock - PETGAS / 6033 - 2011 Quarter 7

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	33,163,546,895 (Very Large)
Par Value	RM 1.00

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(16.76-0.5)/0.7208 = 22.56 (Moderate)
Target Price	16.58+0.5 = 17.08 (PE 23.0, EPS 0.7208, DPS 0.5)
Decision	Not interested unless MACD moving up from very low and buying volume is a lot stronger than selling volume
Comment	Revenue decreased 0.7% and but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 3.2%, eps decreased 1.8% and was second consecutive quarter decreasing and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 14.1%, cash generated from operating enough for financing expenses but investing expenses still spent 11% of Group cash, gross profit margin decreasing, lower liquidity ratio but still at very strong level now, slightly higher gearing ratio at below moderate level now, debt ratio increasing near to recent year high, all accounting repayment period is good, affecting by higher cost of revenue
First Support Price	16.0
Second Support Price	15.0
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

Maybank Target Price	14.1 (2010-12-01)
TA Target Price	14.2 (2011-02-23)
ECM Target Price	14.14 (2011-08-18)
Maybank Target Price	7.5 (2011-11-24)
RHB Target Price	16.39 (2012-01-09)
AMMB Target Price	17.62 (2012-02-02)
HwangDBS Target Price	18.5 (2012-02-23)
MIDF Target Price	16.5 (2012-02-23)
OSK Target Price	17 (2012-02-23)
CIMB Target Price	18.49 (2012-03-26)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	12.51%
Dividend Yield	2.98%
Gross Profit Margin	48.42%
Operating Profit Margin	46.31%
Net Profit Margin	50.43%
Tax Rate	25.96%
Asset Turnover	0.3402
Net Asset Value Per Share	4.32
Net Tangible Asset per share	4.32
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	3.82
Cash Per Share	1.32
Liquidity Current Ratio	5.2232
Liquidity Quick Ratio	5.0508
Liquidity Cash Ratio	4.4004
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.2457
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.1957
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	68.6%
Days to sell the inventory	20
Days to collect the receivables	39
Days to pay the payables	86

Technical Analysis

SMA 20	16.671 (Downtrend 1 day)
SMA 50	16.276 (Uptrend)
SMA 100	14.968 (Uptrend)
SMA 200	13.819 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d)	0.114513 ( 0.000838 )
Signal (9)	0.126314 ( 0.00295 )
MACD Histogram	0.011801 (Bearish trend 27 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 7 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue than FY11Q3 mainly due to higher gas processing revenue and utilities sales but lower pbt mainly due to higher cost of revenue(increase in repair and maintenance cost and staff cost)

- Higher pbt than FY11Q6 mainly due to higher other income resulting from unrealised gain from the revaluation of Currency Exchange Agreement (CEA) and retranslation of term loan

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q7 result announced = 8643921*0.165/1978732 = 0.7208, estimate PE on current price 16.76 = 22.56(DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q6 result announced = (0.1954+0.177)*2 = 0.7448, estimate highest/lowest PE = 22.82/16.68 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q5 result announced = 0.1954*4 = 0.7816, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.14/15.1 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.1348*4 = 0.5392, estimate highest/lowest PE = 25.04/19.84 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.6266, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.65/16.41 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.5331*0.95 = 0.5064, estimate highest/lowest PE = 25.63/19.31 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.4612(3% dropped from 0.4755), estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.47/19.8 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.5(0.37+0.13), estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.2/18.12 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.47, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.21/19.26 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.47, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.21/19.47 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.47, estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.06/19.15 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.47, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.21/18.94 (DPS 0.05)

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