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Sunday, March 4, 2012

KLCI Stock - CSCSTEL / 5094 - 2011 Quarter 4


Company Info 
Market Capital (Capital Size)524,400,000 (Medium)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis 
Forecast P/E now(1.38-0.07)/0.1241 = 10.56 (Moderate)
Target Price1.49+0.07 = 1.56 (PE 12.0, EPS 0.1241, DPS 0.07)
DecisionBUY if MACD start moving back to uptrend and got very strong buying volume than selling (steel price in uptrend)
Comment
Revenue decreased 13.6% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 7%, eps decreased 266.7% and was third consecutive quarter decreasing and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 124%, cash generated from operating no enough to cover dividend hence spent 19.9% of Group cash to cover all other expenses, stronger liquidity ratio at very strong level now, lower gearing ratio at low level now, very low debt ratio, all accounting ratio are good, lower inventory may indicate Group products demand slow down but may benefit from increase of steel price
First Support Price1.3
Second Support Price1.13
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
RHB Target Price1.41 (2012-01-13)
HLG Target Price1.54 (2012-02-13)
OSK Target Price1.6 (2012-02-13)

Accounting Ratio 
Return on Equity3.83%
Dividend Yield5.07%
Profit Margin0.13%
Tax Rate690.83%
Asset Turnover1.4208
Net Asset Value Per Share2.07
Net Tangible Asset per share2.07
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share0.69
Cash Per Share0.62
Liquidity Current Ratio13.831
Liquidity Quick Ratio9.102
Liquidity Cash Ratio5.7181
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.1
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.0909
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale43.4%
Days to sell the inventory62
Days to collect the receivables42
Days to pay the payables13

Technical Analysis 
SMA 201.419 (Downtrend 5 days)
SMA 501.392 (Uptrend)
SMA 1001.366 (Uptrend)
SMA 2001.45 (Downtrend)
MACD (26d/12d)-0.002457 ( 0.002137 )
Signal (9)0.00439 ( 0.001712 )
MACD Histogram0.006847 (Bearish trend 15 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue than FY10Q4 is due to increases in both the overall selling prices and sale volume of our steel products but lower pbt due to write-down of inventories of RM6.4 million as a result of the comparatively lower selling prices of our steel products for January and February 2012

- Lower revenue than FY11Q3 is primarily due to significantly lower sales volume of our steel products as a result of sluggish demand although selling prices are higher than that of the previous quarter however higher pbt mainly due to lower distribution cost

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 771767*0.06/373200 = 0.1241(exclude RM6.4 million inventories write-down, ROE 6%), estimate PE on current price 1.38 = 10.56(DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.1186*0.9 = 0.1067, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.31/11.43 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.1483*0.8 = 0.1186, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.89/8.68 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.1483, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.13/8.56 (DPS 0.13)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.1854*0.8 = 0.1483, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.4/10.32 (DPS 0.13)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.18*0.9 = 0.162, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.19/9.57 (DPS 0.14)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.2936*0.9 = 0.2642 (10% decrease due to global steel price decreasing), estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.55/5.6 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.2936 (maintained forecast eps due to lower margin), estimate highest/lowest PE = 5.99/4.67 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.2936 (20% growth from 0.2442, world steel price increasing), estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.13/4.6 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.24, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.42/4.92 (DPS 0.02)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.1012, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.83/9.88 (DPS 0.02)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0612, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.3/15.44

CSCSTEL latest news (English)

CSCSTEL latest news (Chinese)

World Steel News

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

nice idea..thanks for sharing....

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