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Saturday, March 24, 2012

KLCI Stock - AIRASIA / 5099 - 2011 Quarter 4

AIRASIA BERHAD

Company Description
AIRASIA BERHAD is a Malaysia-based company engaged in the provision of air transportation services. The Company operates a fleet of 90 aircraft and flies to more than 60 destinations from hubs in Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia. It operates more than 3,500 flights a week. Its subsidiaries are Crunchtime Culinary Services Sdn Bhd; AA International Ltd, which is an investment holding company; AirAsia Go Holiday Sdn Bhd, which is engaged in tour operating business; AirAsia (Mauritius) Limited, which is engaged in providing aircraft leasing facilities to Thai AirAsia Co. Ltd; Airspace Communications Sdn Bhd; AirAsia (B) Sdn Bhd; AirAsia Corporate Services Limited; Aras Sejagat Sdn Bhd, which is a special purpose vehicle for financing arrangements required by the Company, and Asia Air Limited, which is engaged in the provision and promotion of AirAsia Berhad's in-flight food to the European market.

Company Info 
Listing Date2004-11-22
IPO Price1.4
Market Capital (Capital Size)9,974,174,472 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 0.10
BoardMain
SectorTrading/Services
Major IndustryAir Transportation
Sub IndustryAir Cargo
Websitehttp://www.airasia.com

My Analysis 
Forecast P/E now3.59/0.2036 = 17.63 (Moderate)
Target Price0.2036*18.0 = 3.66 (PE 18.0, EPS 0.2036)
DecisionNot interested unless oil price decrease to below 100(for long term); BUY if stock price moving up from very low Bolinger band(for short term)
Comment
Revenue increased 18.2% and was third consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 9.3%, eps decreased 10.9% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 56.5%, cash generated from operating more than enough to cover all expenses, better operating profit margin, higher liquidity ratio at low level now, higher gearing ratio at very high level now, debt ratio slightly decreased and still not yet reach to very high level, all accounting ratio is good, affecting by high oil price
First Support Price3.5
Second Support Price3.3
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
Golman Sachs Target Price3.2 (2011-06-02)
Credit Suisse Target Price4.8 (2011-08-10)
Maybank Target Price3.36 (2011-08-23)
Kenanga Target Price4.31 (2011-08-24)
TA Target Price4.5 (2011-08-24)
CIMB Target Price3.98 (2011-09-20)
Macquarie Target Price4.15 (2011-09-22)
HSBC Target Price3.7 (2011-10-17)
UOB Target Price3.7 (2011-10-27)
Affin Target Price3.45 (2011-11-02)
ECM Target Price4.34 (2011-11-23)
RHB Target Price2.99 (2011-11-23)
AMMB Target Price5 (2011-12-13)
HLG Target Price4.5 (2012-02-23)
HwangDBS Target Price3.1 (2012-02-23)
MIDF Target Price4.2 (2012-02-23)
OSK Target Price4.57 (2012-02-23)

Accounting Ratio 
Return on Equity13.95%
Dividend Yield-
Gross Profit Margin0.00%
Operating Profit Margin33.54%
Net Profit Margin26.55%
Tax Rate59.85%
Asset Turnover0.3248
Net Asset Value Per Share1.45
Net Tangible Asset per share1.45
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share2.52
Cash Per Share0.86
Liquidity Current Ratio1.8574
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.8477
Liquidity Cash Ratio1.1742
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio2.4041
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.7062
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale39.0%
Days to sell the inventory2
Days to collect the receivables111
Days to pay the payables143

Technical Analysis 
SMA 203.617 (Downtrend 13 days)
SMA 503.64 (Downtrend)
SMA 1003.685 (Downtrend)
SMA 2003.524 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d)-0.0189 ( 0.000666 )
Signal (9)-0.017318 ( 0.000396 )
MACD Histogram0.001582 (Bearish trend 10 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue due to growth in passenger volume and higher average fare but offset by ancillary income from AirAsia Go is no longer included

- Lower pbt mainly due to foreign exchange loss

- Lower pat mainly due to higher deferred taxation

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 4045220*0.14/2781160 = 0.2036, estimate PE on current price 3.59 = 17.63
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0548*4*0.95 = 0.2082, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.78/16.43 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.3189, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.45/8.31 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = (0.0618*1.2)+(0.0618*1.2*1.1*3) = 0.3189, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.08/9.16 (DPS 0.03)

AIRASIA latest news (English)

AIRASIA latest news (Chinese)



Financial Quarter Summary
a_dateyearqrth_pricel_pricedivroec_roerevc_revpbtc_pbtprofc_profepsc_epsassetliabminoequicfocficffcashfcfnetfinalsharec_sharem_capdategros_moper_mprof_mvatasset_tpenavpsntapsp/ntapscpsl_curl_quil_cashg_deg_daavg_winv_drec_dpay_d
2012-02-2220114N/AN/A-3.35%13.95%127272244738183378597942621356625641470.04880.2028137703439725123-404522013438394927103192301475828851129531899200772727811602781160101512342011-12-31-33.54%26.55%59.85%0.324817.9941.451.452.520.861.85741.84771.17422.40410.706239.0%2111143
2011-11-22201133.943.45-3.82%10.76%107643732010961084964564071522994284890.05480.1541135341899550313-39838768005692635503961621475828537019140857161668527810272781027102063692011-09-30-21.60%10.08%-0.3225-1.431.432.570.731.67241.66351.0072.39720.705630.9%2110148
2011-08-23201124.02.68-2.67%7.08%107562221235641450343479091042582761880.03750.0993134587599558301-3900458670245216912938881475828453333359445183527327805702780570100656632011-06-30-19.64%13.48%28.11%0.3171-1.41.42.590.761.58461.57571.04212.45060.710227.7%292162
2011-05-24201114.22.95-4.50%4.50%104794110479412028742028741719281719280.06180.0618132222229405683-381653945418621043344951147582824375328870417645322780258278025885075892011-03-31-22.10%19.36%15.25%0.312-1.371.372.230.731.6531.64221.20272.46450.711426.8%266133
2011-02-24201043.152.40.038.54%29.15%11643583948095388120109885631108210614110.11230.3831132403009599340-364096016191631868025100622571846524886275736314758282770281277028165101602010-12-31-34.61%33.33%19.85%0.29826.13351.311.311.790.631.5591.54950.9512.63650.72526.1%2102158
2010-11-25201033.042.35-9.85%22.59%97971027837373103427107353272867503270.11830.2711126581749336156-332201882593614047647667067184655788281878789063432767317276731770566582010-09-30-24.98%31.68%-0.2905-1.21.22.120.431.35591.33810.71362.81040.737616.2%5102180
2010-08-18201022.731.6-6.72%14.30%93340218040071442104003931989304230410.07200.1531121312909172336-29589544833287117053392267184652283771108498293142763959276395946434512010-06-30-23.66%15.45%-0.2834-1.071.071.570.421.3121.29440.67843.09990.756115.4%6110236
2010-05-31201011.721.19-8.07%8.07%8706058706052561822561822241102241100.09100.0910114432358665036-277819929555646741010357184652908821898479083122463105246310530049882010-03-31-19.26%29.43%12.52%0.2842-1.131.121.090.511.35331.33980.76163.11890.757217.9%7106347
2010-02-25200941.451.07-1.29%19.32%8940593178854223750622288338715062670.01380.2061113950388774018-2621020736310166179715231481208039254875976617184642456443245644335372772009-12-3147.01%25.13%25.03%84.86%0.2796.9871.071.061.360.441.29961.28740.63143.34760.7716.1%4129240
2009-11-20200931.471.26-5.03%18.26%73966822847951362603985381300724723970.05300.1923107109468124256-258669035356799366710179471208046401003778474986512456383245638331441702009-09-3034.58%15.97%18.42%4.54%0.2978-1.051.051.220.351.64211.62310.60853.14080.758528.6%6165186
2009-08-12200921.491.22-7.14%17.56%74799615451271381612622791391763423260.05900.145199000597950697-1949362304141418606190810120803114465763451971482359043235904333498412009-06-3047.34%29.38%18.47%-0.319-0.830.821.730.241.33911.32380.38584.07860.803115.9%4161190
2009-05-28200911.571.09-11.23%11.23%7971317971311241181241182031502031500.08610.086198794588070772-180868619110027609615171312080384996667171875202358303235830329478782009-03-3149.07%36.96%15.57%-0.3055-0.770.761.640.241.2051.19140.33984.46220.816911.3%4171184
2009-02-27200841.320.885-12.56%30.93%90498828517864297338691982017294965630.08550.210694368767831340-16055364160612601928274857539021730179892694141208032358313235831322757722008-12-3144.58%31.60%47.48%-0.2921-0.680.681.420.211.0611.04930.27694.87770.82993.9%4180202
2008-11-28200831.080.84-25.76%16.32%70790919342695043284410554655272948330.19620.124288283777021283-18070942021972098182242310265136023003791227237740832373300237330026343632008-09-3015.26%0.49%71.24%-0.2814-0.760.761.460.481.23031.21950.73653.88540.795314.3%3109136
2008-08-28200821.270.96-0.41%7.51%6083831143539469016327394171706940.00400.071982834896010867-22726228025713458661698996651360126560943338710847472372535237253526097882008-06-3027.79%13.48%7.71%-0.2702-0.960.951.160.61.39421.3830.97672.64490.725625.8%497143
2008-05-29200811.180.765-7.13%7.13%5351565351561101741101741612771612770.06780.067870930734830216-226285729739972181761324465136010192164059722453882379759237975924035562008-03-3127.54%12.68%20.59%-0.2907-0.950.951.060.391.66061.64341.072.13460.68127.9%488151
2008-02-27200741.60.985-11.71%33.23%63279219327562020244501522457236976230.10290.292064231734323956-2099217619380235310617590036260831733726252776513602388925238892536789442007-12-3132.14%19.67%31.93%-0.30095.27350.880.881.750.421.64681.62731.10592.05980.673230.3%589169
2007-11-23200731.941.44-9.75%24.47%4615851299964746912481281799774519000.07570.190056433973796577-1846820352490155893111278396260831206441786025474812378877237887742106122007-09-3036.15%17.66%16.18%-0.2304-0.780.772.30.381.61251.60230.98232.05570.672742.9%4158247
2007-08-30200721.961.75-11.13%16.38%4321548283331303651738051850502722910.07780.114547791013117221-16618802169477726095248226260835556623084059524323788772378877N/A2007-06-3026.37%29.54%30.17%-N/A-0.70.69N/A0.41.76361.75191.16371.87570.6523N/A-N/AN/A
2007-05-2320071N/AN/A-5.79%5.79%406225406225430724307286873868730.03650.036543947112895159391499552292372441775205910691782149403565077482892380046238004642126812007-03-3127.05%11.21%10.60%-N/A-0.630.632.810.421.3981.38661.01941.93070.6588N/A-N/AN/A

Financial Quarter Balance Sheet
yearqrtAmount due from associated companies (A-0)Amount due from jointly controlled entities (A-0)Available-for-sale financial assets (A-0)Deferred expenditures (A-0)Deferred tax assets (A-0)Derivative financial assets (A-0)Goodwill on consolidation (A-0)Investment in associated companies (A-0)Investment in jointly controlled entity (A-0)Other investments (A-0)Property, plant and equipment (A-0)Receivables, deposits and prepayments (A-0)Amount due from associated companies (A-1)Amount due from jointly controlled entity (A-1)Cash and cash equivalents (A-1)Current tax assets (A-1)Deposit on aircraft purchase (A-1)Derivative financial assets (A-1)Inventories (A-1)Other investments (A-1)Other receivables, deposits and prepayments (A-1)Trade receivables (A-1)Derivative financial liabilities (L-0)Derivative liabilities (L-0)Hire purchase liabilities (L-0)Loans & borrowings (L-0)Amount due to associated companies (L-1)Amounts due to Jointly Controlled Entities (L-1)Amounts due to related parties (L-1)Current tax liabilities (L-1)Derivative financial liabilities (L-1)Hire purchase liabilities (L-1)Loans & borrowings (L-1)Provision for loss on unwinding of derivatives (L-1)Sales in advance of carriage (L-1)Trade and other payables (L-1)Minority interest (M-1)
20114508464-152942-50761044023733439079123654-858645123593285163-2020121-367768765919730-1076752-525544--716598644441636382371784--615164-389833997768-
20113117964-152942-7057274468687381107112180619899873623094146956-1646350-370379-17759-1167962-51373917933-70158435143-41774352120982-597467-408301925610-
20112117964-152942-65913319535873829-22926962523260121433-1864736-244692792517874-950851-474448--705961451393768680255720--561001-3355491003889-
20111117964-152942-69197222153873829-2594032332276211416431134179388175245129257518321-52806269063496862--7213519--74705--6556231-329114735246-
20104117964-152942-71926025544873829-25931804123593162386998021504617-248684-17553-711024130098452865--73028845223-412621632-15553967-328549912943-
20103230881161797135882-80351331965873829--89894202309499530143082934853-2613571918129844-73655348455526663--7133265---19054-25506541-308248842360-
20102263714173274132697-78223984615873829--843204723260142381195594858094-295292946729845-64100359001437848--7034225---15783-34551951-352741779754-
20101263714173274132700-72356860438873829--782771723427174320162077938481-316335695722142-56996139357351660-66665778---12962-46521185-288700824699-
2009425303717188526704-751274-873829--794218823593203851194503746312-330978-20864-65255668526--167067696---9824-56540212-283224872990-
20093---479930591-873829-267067291888123337472722438339527262-335810-26926-49940828711--146705824---1742-77509192--907407-
20092---479936456-873829-267096833059110729479593410408231101-340450-22764-47492824616--346469212---3240-77488272--989862-
20091---479935321-873829-267126793365111263752431-223991-340981-22678-64428619184--536408012---4246-77526503151713-980168-
200843119024227--856109-873829-26715659429924257356457316400153762-334628-20684-64342345958--726067624---4216-77538934151713-1068704-
20083---479627971-873829-26718617043196630143353100603774082-330883-166003089248089620072--915478947---4383-77846614--691171-
20082---479588434-873829-26721552961490757128089819811084748-312604-164373089236886815098--1114548497---4246-77848559--609377-
20081---479531250-873829-2672450104216891010431262354595298-305841-149633089231995212910--1303959000---3982-77276765--590262-
20074---479479705-873829-267284352770649268440774285651360-318251-175673089229715315883--1493419121---5178-77278550--620881-
20073---479435425-873829-643672757580278618099010547481-312826-927233871-379238--1812886091---5048-64290175--615018-
20072---480329216-873829-672959816460047743292182595243-317296-951234136-308950--2012303488---4575-64251097--557796-
20071---1979284086-873821812183086926417983450696517604660127-317952-1124530696-346756--1531905422---3879-172295844--68968939

Financial Quarter Income Statement
yearqrtRevenueIncome tax expenseCost of salesFinance/interest costsOther incomeAdministrative/Operating expensesFinance/interest incomeShare of profit/ (loss) of associatesDepreciation & amortisationForeign exchange (loss)/gainExceptional itemsShare of net profit of jointly controlled entityFair value gain on derivative financial instrumentsOther expensesStaff costsAircraft fuel expensesMaintenance, overhaul, user charges and other related expensesAircraft operating lease expensesTravel and tour operating expensesMaintenance and overhaulUser charges and other related expenses
201141272722202197-9576819054184325152533652142231137386-184866783-126957475075-2954902775586590
20113107643743803-26498487475212841139542001144145--10132-68559126294421219-1980401648294730
20112107562240776-98141181984551228372-142532----24846110374441671799531550718622--
20111104794130946-1545694593235478115724-141136-----1185323765471467331579517933--
20104116435877038-99685856159910913899-14560344296--2997-94193292444-124812087342418110245
2010397971016944-225011784829881288612-135657----4915491262290424-13357175101977193801
2010293340254720-11386672543525935519-121986----2425984902318405992111802116056--
2010187060532072-2153501375928132306478-116738-----904293088341106322183215195--
20094894059189879473791261211388845793--139411-28695----------
200937396686188483892142512445749982--108242-0----------
20092747996101539392076618429535526--101828-6238----------
20091797131790324059821884664853028933--98162------------
200849049882280045015341175585306626185--127574-614936----------
20083707909388015999072925701304829491--88037-215280----------
20082608383563184393091307731392228522--70602------------
200815351565110338775441601550523593--60741------------
200746327924369942942975799900629888-056256--0---------
200734615851052862947157265238723525-063776--0---------
200724321545468531820719903765744609--35644------------
20071406225438012963472829863125631-926846369--3002---------

Short form reference
a_date = announcement date, yr = financial year end, qrt = quarter
h_price = stock highest price during the quarter, l_price = stock lowest price during the quarter
div = dividend recommend or declare in the quarter, roe = return on equity
c_roe = cumulative of return on equity during the financial year
rev = revenue in the current quarter, c_rev = cumulative of revenue during the financial year
pbt = profit before tax in the current quarter, c_pbt = cumulative of profit before tax during the financial year
eps = earnings per share in the current quarter, c_eps = cumulative of earnings per share during the financial year
asset = total asset, liab = total liability, mino = minority interest, equi = total equity
cfo = net cash flow from operating activities, cfi = net cash flow from investing activities
cff = net cash flow from financing activities, cash = cash and cash equivalents as at beginning of financial year
final = cash and cash equivalents as at current financial period ended
share = diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares
c_share = cumulative of diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares during the financial year
m_cap = market capital at announcement date of quarterly report, date = current financial period ended date
prof_m = profit margin, vat = income tax rate, pe = price earning per share ratio of recent four quarter
navps = net asset value per share, ntaps = net tangible asset per share, cps = cash per share
l_cur = liquidity current ratio, l_qui = liquidity quick ratio, l_cash = liquidity cash ratio
g_de = gearing debt to equity ratio, g_da = gearing debt to assets ratio
avg_w = working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
inv_d = days to sell the inventory, rec_d = days to collect the receivables
pay_d = days to pay the payables



6-Months Historical Chart from shareinvestor.com


CURRENT


CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING
ANNUAL REPORTS


HISTORICAL


CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING


ARCHIVES


CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING




1-Years Historical Chart from shareinvestor.com

5-Years Historical Chart from shareinvestor.com

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