KLCI Stock - DIALOG / 7277 - 2012 Quarter 2

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	5,870,496,022 (Very Large)
Par Value	RM 0.10

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(2.44-0.031)/0.0835 = 28.85 (High)
Target Price	2.25+0.031 = 2.29 (PE 27.0, EPS 0.0835, DPS 0.031)
Decision	Not interested unless stock price above 2.45 and got very strong buying volume than selling
Comment	Revenue increased 1% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 33.5%, eps decreased 7.1% and was second consecutive quarter decreasing but still higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 13.7%, cash generated from operating enough to cover financing expenses and increased borrowings to cover investing activities, slightly weaker liquidity ratio at low level now, higher gearing ratio from moderate to above moderate level now, debt ratio still at good level now, all accounting ratio are good, benefit from Pengerang project, affected by asia pacific and others countries division loss
First Support Price	2.4
Second Support Price	2.2
Risk Rating	HIGH

Research House

MIMB Target Price	2.15 (2010-12-27)
JP Morgan Target Price	3 (2011-10-07)
CIMB Target Price	3.64 (2011-12-15)
OSK Target Price	3.07 (2011-12-16)
RHB Target Price	3.65 (2011-12-16)
AMMB Target Price	2.85 (2012-02-15)
HwangDBS Target Price	2.95 (2012-02-15)
Maybank Target Price	3.05 (2012-02-15)
MIDF Target Price	2.8 (2012-02-15)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	26.03%
Dividend Yield	1.27%
Profit Margin	14.41%
Tax Rate	18.70%
Asset Turnover	1.1106
Net Asset Value Per Share	0.33
Net Tangible Asset per share	0.31
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	7.87
Cash Per Share	0.14
Liquidity Current Ratio	1.8408
Liquidity Quick Ratio	1.7449
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.7369
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.8537
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.4459
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	23.0%
Days to sell the inventory	11
Days to collect the receivables	99
Days to pay the payables	92

Technical Analysis

SMA 20	2.435 (Downtrend 9 days)
SMA 50	2.42 (Uptrend)
SMA 100	2.274 (Uptrend)
SMA 200	2.293 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d)	0.005925 ( 0.00021 )
Signal (9)	0.008744 ( 0.000705 )
MACD Histogram	0.002819 (Bearish trend 23 days)

My notes based on 2012 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt than FY11Q2 due to consolidation of the revenue of the newly acquired fabrication and multi-disciplined engineering company, Fitzroy Engineering Group Limited, based in New Zealand. In addition, contribution from Malaysia and Asia operation such as Brunei, Thailand, Oman and China, also increased significantly mainly due to higher revenue of Specialist Products & Services recorded

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = 693386*0.24/1993555 = 0.0835, estimate PE on current price 2.44 = 28.85(DPS 0.031)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 0.1085, estimate highest/lowest PE = 24.32/21.37 (DPS 0.031)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.0226*4*1.2 = 0.1085, estimate highest/lowest PE = 25.43/16.21 (DPS 0.031)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = (0.0183+0.0193)*2*1.2 = 0.0902, estimate highest/lowest PE = 31.59/24.05 (DPS 0.031)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.0183+0.0146)*2*1.05 = 0.0691, estimate highest/lowest PE = 38.77/30.38 (DPS 0.031)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0169*4*1.05 = 0.071(ROE 6% per quarter), estimate highest/lowest PE = 31.82/19.14 (DPS 0.031)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0146*4*1.05 = 0.0613, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.8/16.95 (DPS 0.031)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0162*4*1.05 = 0.068(5% increase), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.93/14.16 (DPS 0.037)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.04*2 = 0.08, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.3/11.5 (DPS 0.036)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0193*4 = 0.0772, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.83/15.73 (DPS 0.036)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0659*1.1 = 0.0725, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.4/15.64 (DPS 0.036)

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