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Friday, March 9, 2012

KLCI Stock - BAT / 4162 - 2011 Quarter 4


Company Info 
Market Capital (Capital Size)14,853,270,600 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 0.50

My Analysis 
Forecast P/E now(52.02-2.76)/2.5705 = 19.16 (High)
Target Price46.27+2.76 = 49.03 (PE 18.0, EPS 2.5705, DPS 2.76)
DecisionNot interested unless MACD start move back to bullish trend
Comment
Revenue decreased 10.6% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 2.9%, eps increased 2.5% but lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 1.1%, cash generated from operating enough to cover financing expenses but spent 14% of Group cash to cover investing expenses, weaker liquidity ratio at weak level now, slightly lower gearing ratio at very high level now, debt ratio at high level now, all accounting ratio are good, lower inventory can indicate decline in consumption
First Support Price51.5
Second Support Price48.0
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
Kenanga Target Price42.2 (2011-07-22)
TA Target Price48.3 (2011-07-22)
RHB Target Price42.4 (2011-10-19)
AMMB Target Price45.9 (2011-10-21)
CIMB Target Price44.9 (2011-10-21)
ECM Target Price43.8 (2011-10-21)
HwangDBS Target Price46.6 (2012-02-17)
Maybank Target Price50.4 (2012-02-17)
MIDF Target Price47.45 (2012-02-17)
OSK Target Price52.47 (2012-02-17)

Accounting Ratio 
Return on Equity166.68%
Dividend Yield5.31%
Profit Margin23.18%
Tax Rate21.06%
Asset Turnover2.6331
Net Asset Value Per Share1.51
Net Tangible Asset per share0.07
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share747.14
Cash Per Share1.07
Liquidity Current Ratio0.8499
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.6178
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.3689
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio2.6306
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.7246
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale-3.0%
Days to sell the inventory22
Days to collect the receivables18
Days to pay the payables42

Technical Analysis 
SMA 2051.876 (Uptrend 23 days)
SMA 5050.081 (Uptrend)
SMA 10046.913 (Uptrend)
SMA 20044.436 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d)0.682851 ( 0.055786 )
Signal (9)0.769156 ( 0.021576 )
MACD Histogram0.086305 (Bearish trend 2 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue than FY10Q4 due to Dunhill performed extremely well and sub-contract manufacturing cigarette volume increased but pbt was broadly flat due to impact of lower margins as a result of the ban on pack sizes below 20 in June 2010 and the effect of the operating factors. Pat declined due to the higher tax effective rate in 2011 (25%) as compared with 2010 (24%) which included a 2009 tax credit realised in 2010

- Lower pbt than FY11Q3 due to lower volumes as a result of trade speculation by retailers and distributors at the end of Quarter 3, 2011 anticipating an excise increase to be announced during the 2012 Government Budget exercise but pat improved due to deferred tax assets from temporary timing difference of the tax base of assets and its carrying value in the financial statements

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 431735*1.7/285530 = 2.5705, estimate PE on current price 52.02 = 19.51(DPS 2.76)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = (0.6173+0.6449)*2*1.05 = 2.6506, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.77/15.45 (DPS 2.76)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 1.2703*2 = 2.5406, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.43/15.74 (DPS 2.7)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.6254*4 = 2.5016, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.43/17.2 (DPS 2.4)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.5977*4*0.95 = 2.2713, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.36/18.67 (DPS 2.41)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 2.4323(7% drop from 2.6154), estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.56/16.8 (DPS 2.36)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 2.4323(7% drop from 2.6154), estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.53/16.31 (DPS 2.36)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 2.4323, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.82/16.06 (DPS 2.36)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 2.4323, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.99/16.1 (DPS 2.35)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 2.8448, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.36/14.54 (DPS 2.65)

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