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Saturday, March 10, 2012

KLCI Stock - AFFIN / 5185 - 2011 Quarter 4

Company Info 
Market Capital (Capital Size)4,633,184,998 (Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis 
Forecast P/E now(3.1-0.12)/0.3742 = 7.96 (Moderate)
Target Price3.37+0.12 = 3.49 (PE 9.0, EPS 0.3742, DPS 0.12)
DecisionBUY if stock price buying volume is very stronger than selling
Revenue increased 4.4% and is continuous increasing since FY09Q2(higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 14.4%), eps decreased 2% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 4.7%, cash generated from operating more than enough to cover all expenses, investment banking and insurance division drop a lot of profit, commercial banking division still growth
First Support Price3.0
Second Support Price2.7

Research House
RHB Target Price3.1 (2012-02-13)
CIMB Target Price2.79 (2012-02-21)
HLG Target Price2.96 (2012-02-21)

Accounting Ratio 
Return on Equity9.08%
Dividend Yield3.87%
Profit Margin24.58%
Tax Rate24.02%
Asset Turnover0.0494
Net Asset Value Per Share3.74
Net Tangible Asset per share3.06
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.03
Cash Per Share7.65
Liquidity Current Ratio1.1081
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.8971
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.2431
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio8.6091
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.8959
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale191.5%
Days to sell the inventory5498
Days to collect the receivables4217
Days to pay the payables26038

Technical Analysis 
SMA 203.105 (Downtrend 12 days)
SMA 503.104 (Uptrend)
SMA 1002.899 (Uptrend)
SMA 2002.901 (Downtrend)
MACD (26d/12d)-0.005471 ( 0.000949 )
Signal (9)-0.002254 ( 0.000804 )
MACD Histogram0.003217 (Bearish trend 23 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt than FY10Q4 mainly attributable to commercial banking division which was reduction in both allowances for loan impairment and impairment securities, higher net interest income and higher Islamic banking income offset by lower other income and higher overhead expenses

- Lower pbt than FY11Q3 mainly due to the allowance for loan impairment of RM15.9 million vs write back of RM50.2 million but partially cushioned by the increased in both operating income and net interest income

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 5592224*0.1/1494576 = 0.3742, estimate PE on current price 3.1 = 7.96(DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.3377*1.05 = 0.3546, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.94/7.39 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.071+0.0898)*2*1.05 = 0.3377, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.21/6.4 (DPS 0.09)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = (0.071+0.077)*2 = 0.296, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.76/9.8 (DPS 0.09)

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