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Monday, March 19, 2012

KLCI Stock - MHB / 5186 - 2011 Quarter 7

Company Info 
Market Capital (Capital Size)8,560,000,000 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 0.50

My Analysis 
Forecast P/E now(5.35-0.1)/0.1818 = 28.88 (High)
Target Price4.73+0.1 = 4.83 (PE 26.0, EPS 0.1818, DPS 0.1)
DecisionNot interested unless MACD moving up from very low with low selling volume or MACD continue bullish trend with Bolinger upper band open follow by stock price go up
Revenue increased 54.6% but lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 45.6%, eps decreased 42.1% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 67.2%, cash generated from operating is more than enough to cover all expenses, slightly stronger liquidity ratio at low level now, lower gearing ratio at above moderate level now, lower debt ratio, benefit from longer payables periods to utilize the cash since the cash is still quite sufficient
First Support Price5.3
Second Support Price5.0

Accounting Ratio 
Return on Equity8.48%
Dividend Yield2.80%
Gross Profit Margin0.00%
Operating Profit Margin7.04%
Net Profit Margin7.55%
Tax Rate14.17%
Asset Turnover0.6858
Net Asset Value Per Share1.51
Net Tangible Asset per share1.51
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share3.65
Cash Per Share1.3
Liquidity Current Ratio1.6132
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.6005
Liquidity Cash Ratio1.0368
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.8421
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.4568
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale40.3%
Days to sell the inventory3
Days to collect the receivables135
Days to pay the payables247

Technical Analysis 
SMA 205.351 (Downtrend 8 days)
SMA 505.444 (Downtrend)
SMA 1005.617 (Downtrend)
SMA 2006.385 (Downtrend)
MACD (26d/12d)-0.025699 ( 0.002059 )
Signal (9)-0.032365 ( 0.001666 )
MACD Histogram0.006666 (Bullish trend 8 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 7 report (number in '000):-
- Lower revenue and pbt than FY11Q3 in Engineering & Construction division mainly due to no further recognition of revenue from EPCIC Turkmenistan Block 1, Phase 1 project. The project contract was novated to a jointly controlled entity, MMHE-TPGM Sdn Bhd with effect from 1 January 2011

- Higher revenue and pbt in Marine conversion & repair division due to the securement of two new conversion contracts, which has commenced during the period and higher numbers of energy vessels repair works although one of the secured conversion contract has yet to contribute any operating profit due to the works are still at preliminary stage

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q7 result announced = 2424212*0.12/1600000 = 0.1818, estimate PE on current price 5.35 = 28.88(DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q6 result announced = 0.05*4*1.05 = 0.21, estimate highest/lowest PE = 27.95/24.71 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q5 result announced = (0.08+0.05)*2 = 0.26, estimate highest/lowest PE = 26.15/19.04 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = (0.08+0.06)*2 = 0.28, estimate highest/lowest PE = 31.32/22.39 (DPS 0.05)

- Yearly revenue, 2008 = 1741922, 2009 = 4021147, 2010 = 6147012
- Yearly PAT, 2008 = 194645, 2009 = 282221, 2010 = 284115

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