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Thursday, March 1, 2012

KLCI Stock - PBBANK / 1295 - 2011 Quarter 4

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)33,772,274,827 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(13.66-0.48)/0.9953 = 13.24 (High)
Target Price12.94+0.48 = 13.42 (PE 13.0, EPS 0.9953, DPS 0.48)
DecisionNot interested unless MACD moving back to uptrend and got very strong buying volume than selling
Comment
Revenue increased 1.5% and was continuous increasing since FY09Q2 (higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 11.8%) and also is highest all the time, eps decreased 2.4% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 3.6%, no cash generated from operating after deducted assets increase expenses and cash generated from financing activities also not enough hence spent 48.6% of Group cash to cover, most segment growth except fund management
First Support Price13.3
Second Support Price12.8
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
CIMB Target Price16 (2011-04-19)
Affin Target Price15 (2011-07-14)
Kenanga Target Price15.5 (2011-07-26)
TA Target Price15 (2011-07-26)
AMMB Target Price15.4 (2012-01-17)
OSK Target Price14 (2012-01-30)
ECM Target Price13 (2012-01-31)
HLG Target Price13.9 (2012-01-31)
HwangDBS Target Price14.9 (2012-01-31)
Maybank Target Price14.6 (2012-01-31)
MIDF Target Price13.3 (2012-01-31)
RHB Target Price15 (2012-02-13)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity22.39%
Dividend Yield3.51%
Profit Margin35.02%
Tax Rate23.83%
Asset Turnover0.0511
Net Asset Value Per Share4.24
Net Tangible Asset per share3.68
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share3.67
Cash Per Share6.92
Liquidity Current Ratio1.105
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.9059
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.1089
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio15.7335
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.9376
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale183.1%
Days to sell the inventory7320
Days to collect the receivables5002
Days to pay the payables36112

Technical Analysis
SMA 2013.615 (Uptrend 52 days)
SMA 5013.169 (Uptrend)
SMA 10012.705 (Uptrend)
SMA 20012.695 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d)0.149413 ( 0.008891 )
Signal (9)0.181951 ( 0.008135 )
MACD Histogram0.032538 (Bearish trend 6 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- The improved earnings than FY10Q4 was mainly due to higher net interest and net income from Islamic banking business and higher net fee and commission income. The growth in net interest income and net income from Islamic banking business was driven by continued strong loans and customer deposits growth coupled with sustained strong asset quality

- Lower pbt than FY11Q3 mainly due to certain major loan recoveries in the preceding quarter which are non-recurring in the current quarter

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 15560706*0.224/3502125 = 0.9953, estimate PE on current price 13.66 = 13.24(DPS 0.48)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.2566*4*1.05 = 1.0777, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.09/10.92 (DPS 0.53)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.2514*4 = 1.0056, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.93/11.12 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.2363*4*1.05 = 0.9925, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.98/12.49 (DPS 0.58)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.2416*4 = 0.9664, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.41/12.69 (DPS 0.58)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.2235*4 = 0.894, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.65/13.42 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.2096*4 = 0.8384, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.69/13.62 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.197*4 = 0.788, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.87/13.59 (DPS 0.55)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1965*4 = 0.786, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.64/13.22 (DPS 0.55)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.1852*4 = 0.7408, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.65/13.59 (DPS 0.55)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.177*4 = 0.708, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.34/13.12 (DPS 0.55)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.1744*4 = 0.6976, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.19/11.11 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.1949*4 = 0.7796, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.22/8.34 (DPS 0.5)

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