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Thursday, March 1, 2012

KLCI Stock - PBBANK / 1295 - 2011 Quarter 4

PUBLIC BANK BERHAD

Company Description
The Group's principal activity is providing products and services to individual customer and small- and medium - sized enterprises such as credit facilities, credit cards, remittance services, deposits collection and investment products. Other activities are trading treasury related products and services, providing fund management, providing financial solution and direct lending and lending corporate funds. Operations are carried out in Malaysia, Hong Kong SAR, Sri Lanka, Socialist Republic of Vietnam, Cambodia and the People's Democratic Republic of Laos.

Company Info
Listing Date1967-04-06
Market Capital (Capital Size)33,772,274,827 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00
BoardMain
SectorFinance
Major IndustryBanking
Sub IndustryOther Financial Services
Websitehttp://www.publicbank.com.my

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(13.66-0.48)/0.9953 = 13.24 (High)
Target Price12.94+0.48 = 13.42 (PE 13.0, EPS 0.9953, DPS 0.48)
DecisionNot interested unless MACD moving back to uptrend and got very strong buying volume than selling
Comment
Revenue increased 1.5% and was continuous increasing since FY09Q2 (higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 11.8%) and also is highest all the time, eps decreased 2.4% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 3.6%, no cash generated from operating after deducted assets increase expenses and cash generated from financing activities also not enough hence spent 48.6% of Group cash to cover, most segment growth except fund management
First Support Price13.3
Second Support Price12.8
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
CIMB Target Price16 (2011-04-19)
Affin Target Price15 (2011-07-14)
Kenanga Target Price15.5 (2011-07-26)
TA Target Price15 (2011-07-26)
AMMB Target Price15.4 (2012-01-17)
OSK Target Price14 (2012-01-30)
ECM Target Price13 (2012-01-31)
HLG Target Price13.9 (2012-01-31)
HwangDBS Target Price14.9 (2012-01-31)
Maybank Target Price14.6 (2012-01-31)
MIDF Target Price13.3 (2012-01-31)
RHB Target Price15 (2012-02-13)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity22.39%
Dividend Yield3.51%
Profit Margin35.02%
Tax Rate23.83%
Asset Turnover0.0511
Net Asset Value Per Share4.24
Net Tangible Asset per share3.68
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share3.67
Cash Per Share6.92
Liquidity Current Ratio1.105
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.9059
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.1089
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio15.7335
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.9376
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale183.1%
Days to sell the inventory7320
Days to collect the receivables5002
Days to pay the payables36112

Technical Analysis
SMA 2013.615 (Uptrend 52 days)
SMA 5013.169 (Uptrend)
SMA 10012.705 (Uptrend)
SMA 20012.695 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d)0.149413 ( 0.008891 )
Signal (9)0.181951 ( 0.008135 )
MACD Histogram0.032538 (Bearish trend 6 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- The improved earnings than FY10Q4 was mainly due to higher net interest and net income from Islamic banking business and higher net fee and commission income. The growth in net interest income and net income from Islamic banking business was driven by continued strong loans and customer deposits growth coupled with sustained strong asset quality

- Lower pbt than FY11Q3 mainly due to certain major loan recoveries in the preceding quarter which are non-recurring in the current quarter

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 15560706*0.224/3502125 = 0.9953, estimate PE on current price 13.66 = 13.24(DPS 0.48)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.2566*4*1.05 = 1.0777, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.09/10.92 (DPS 0.53)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.2514*4 = 1.0056, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.93/11.12 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.2363*4*1.05 = 0.9925, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.98/12.49 (DPS 0.58)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.2416*4 = 0.9664, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.41/12.69 (DPS 0.58)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.2235*4 = 0.894, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.65/13.42 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.2096*4 = 0.8384, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.69/13.62 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.197*4 = 0.788, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.87/13.59 (DPS 0.55)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1965*4 = 0.786, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.64/13.22 (DPS 0.55)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.1852*4 = 0.7408, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.65/13.59 (DPS 0.55)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.177*4 = 0.708, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.34/13.12 (DPS 0.55)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.1744*4 = 0.6976, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.19/11.11 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.1949*4 = 0.7796, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.22/8.34 (DPS 0.5)

PBBANK latest news (English)

PBBANK latest news (Chinese)



Financial Quarter Summary
a_dateyearqrth_pricel_pricedivroec_roerevc_revpbtc_pbtprofc_profepsc_epsassetliabminoequicfocficffcashfcfnetfinalsharec_sharem_capdateprof_mvatasset_tpenavpsntapsp/ntapscpsl_curl_quil_cashg_deg_daavg_winv_drec_dpay_d
2012-01-3020114N/AN/A0.285.64%22.39%3321633127563601163267461063387698734838100.25040.99482494109822338502766974841556070615655681132159213370033221094916977273156402701657067935021253502132473487302011-12-3135.02%23.83%0.051113.59114.243.683.676.921.1050.90590.108915.73350.9376183.1%7320500236112
2011-10-182011313.5612.3-6.13%17.77%327246694347271186932344736689879426068230.25660.74442403586422256921687030291466647418985770125492613540163222307020240696188866801333639035021283502134437065572011-09-3036.27%23.51%0.0516-3.993.433.645.521.10540.89680.090316.16310.939182.1%7507499935334
2011-07-252011213.511.680.26.08%11.80%317065461622611162548226043488035517080290.25140.48772353542342208759186566341447831611198448481098999085431999242638745973783132462092935021353502137467885232011-06-3036.67%23.32%0.051-3.953.43.938.421.08730.92330.138615.98040.9385154.7%5888499735200
2011-04-182011113.4612.98-6.09%6.09%29916072991607109788610978868276748276740.23630.236322913560621553972265148713595884832203670595697990632006552761608085959862341056635021393502139457379352011-03-3136.70%23.61%0.0503-3.73.154.157.281.0850.90130.122916.65120.9407153.2%6487503834622
2011-01-252010413.5412.840.336.18%22.27%2971194110355971130264408619784618830482240.24160.871822632897621264388865218813685088561485442097401083223429903869824594109078173208256935021453496316467186142010-12-3138.04%23.90%0.048815.3013.733.184.1910.371.08740.94170.177516.31590.9395162.0%5062509334115
2010-10-182010313.612.5-6.09%17.14%287738380644031051377295593378270222020360.22350.630222057670520772651365932312850192621535036629881092500428774509878338109708383190661235021483494351440570212010-09-3036.54%24.45%0.0479-3.492.934.299.741.08620.93190.170917.03950.9417162.8%5262515933511
2010-07-202010212.8211.920.255.78%11.17%26792615187020981981190455673407914193340.20960.406621902769220631690467727012710788828503539617246812034313579212246759129279623020783035021553490388427262912010-06-3036.65%23.93%0.0462-3.452.884.249.31.08430.90930.164317.14520.942165.1%5967523833484
2010-04-152010112.2411.26-5.71%5.71%250775925077599225759225756852556852550.19700.19702190357912070284296783281200736222831319596506701784319550313234816533034384880634784903478490418810192010-03-3136.79%24.38%0.0447-3.262.684.4913.091.08040.9440.228818.27410.9452163.4%4707522333969
2010-01-202009412.0610.940.255.79%21.49%24954529715568900215332143367823125173020.19650.73322171361542054208306921181171532411814032456786429518236529466724616869509864348045234514493433336416935032009-12-3136.07%23.53%0.044716.47593.212.614.6313.821.07930.93770.241618.63530.946161.1%4954508434464
2009-10-152009312.1410.62-5.81%16.71%24380357220116856508242121863904518390710.18520.536620904348219803741870822111006064107010654141212163168936603843655985349281644153200734514503427232366543992009-09-3035.13%24.41%0.0468-3.02.44.4212.861.07140.92920.232119.2310.9474139.7%4923490534129
2009-07-202009210.79.840.35.54%10.88%23506204782081819782156471061074112000260.17700.3514204038003193004434709697110335696001130191024043828836687379409089045291784121655734514543414922355499762009-06-3034.88%24.38%0.0497-3.022.414.2712.411.08090.93120.231518.6950.9459147.6%5202458634188
2009-04-142009110.48.25-5.70%5.70%243146124314617449287449285892855892850.17440.1744199226617188882707735320103439104242963124081658291136919350300214735850583333429233779843377984285439642009-03-3130.64%20.02%0.0517-2.842.213.8210.331.07460.88230.192219.65770.9481131.5%6935437535566
2009-01-20200849.257.00.256.39%25.24%255755710500307812943337918865397525812370.19490.7692196163107185934374692026102287337512695655258595093357320109601108650173659702733556293355636291939722008-12-3131.79%19.23%0.053511.31012.842.223.9212.271.07460.90450.230319.49670.9479127.0%6196411535859
2008-10-14200839.057.85-6.23%19.49%27911597942750804047256624561634019272620.18370.5743190729788180841894705944988789472363773415384862435691657806517581137992757785833556333355638303684782008-09-3028.81%21.95%0.0551-2.742.124.279.441.07340.85680.181919.69540.9482121.6%7728402335123
2008-07-172008210.58.30.35.92%13.07%25155795151591791566176219859353513109220.17690.3907185236362175208333658629100280291425915785903226453550577272118110438263654959833556393355641345630812008-06-3031.47%23.31%0.0547-2.792.24.6812.251.07360.91110.243118.70010.9459122.8%5758400434810
2008-04-142008112.09.95-7.64%7.64%263601226360129706329706327173877173870.21380.213817809909716871216162923993869365945992611211186944354377008557203312243510647633556423355642365764972008-03-3136.82%24.64%0.0564-2.612.025.411.881.06470.89120.243119.26440.9473105.6%5911380833435
2008-01-212007411.89.350.55.81%21.29%25730799557599821201300363857996021239150.17290.629117415518716417676463624999784231409377877652120444752427600613317257112727823554878833535193376239368887092007-12-3131.92%25.98%0.054917.48592.772.175.0712.111.06970.88950.254617.57370.9427116.3%6193379333784
2007-10-162007311.310.2-5.75%16.33%24144746984520774424218243754362715439550.16180.4570165618321156162723656466945559810014960987631202751324331183902732969998163133099933596653378373334286662007-09-3032.07%27.31%0.0554-2.62.04.9710.561.07060.87120.234417.74750.9429116.5%6847376133727
2007-07-1720072N/AN/A0.255.41%10.32%24238264570046732745140801352411010003280.15580.2974161910786152219654636920969113298590648575812526022434282714716642190622456188933646343363928329734132007-06-3030.23%26.31%0.0546-2.692.084.719.061.07350.8310.206816.8120.9401122.5%8474371034150
2007-04-1620071N/AN/A-5.18%5.18%214622021462206752686752684762184762180.14140.14141573118851481108356273269201050103685339462511642992434457114314782671792461175033675883367588298031532007-03-3131.46%27.28%0.0521-2.551.934.599.151.0730.83180.215217.2750.9415127.6%8630385235035
2007-01-2220064N/AN/A0.44.61%17.87%21848397710224649248241636144506317266880.13280.51601477895431381272346283109662309450542149624149532318330262455504560503682438063033509853346125259701332006-12-3129.72%28.94%0.052315.01862.72.073.749.361.0840.86850.235915.28970.9346144.4%7342390633470
2006-10-1720063N/AN/A-4.80%14.09%20925495525385606316176711343631512816250.12990.37941409317911318343986647479097393594341666905613717218346578527436054115322375811033596653378373230137052006-09-3028.97%25.79%0.0394-2.51.883.648.721.07490.86460.229415.63380.9354172.3%9324526743503
2006-07-2020062N/AN/A0.25.04%9.33%1770919343283661502811607974569028453100.13770.254713458919712552525668181590639411512817949059022529871834619610222277104752642882146033170643318476210633562006-06-3034.73%22.50%N/A-2.531.923.3110.221.07420.91920.277914.97530.9327N/A-N/AN/A
2006-04-1820061N/AN/A-4.54%4.54%168728516872855457695457693884083884080.11700.11701186507521100931764455678557576542916119129374701418347541562045448734402322098133198463319846217449912006-03-3132.35%25.38%N/A-2.442.212.968.471.08450.92090.261713.57160.9279N/A-N/AN/A

Financial Quarter Balance Sheet
yearqrtDeferred tax assets (A-0)Intangible assets (A-0)Investment in associated companies (A-0)Investment properties (A-0)Property, plant and equipment (A-0)Cash and cash equivalents (A-1)Derivative financial assets (A-1)Financial assets held-for-trading (A-1)Financial investments available-for-sale (A-1)Financial investments held-to-maturity (A-1)Loans, advances & financing (A-1)Other assets (A-1)Reverse repurchase agreements (A-1)Statutory deposits with Bank Negara Malaysia (A-1)Debt securities issued and other borrowed funds (L-0)Deferred tax liabilities (L-0)Bills payables (L-1)Deposits & placements of banks & other financial institutions (L-1)Deposits from customers (L-1)Derivative financial liabilities (L-1)Obligations on securities sold under repurchase agreements (L-1)Other liabilities (L-1)Provision for taxation (L-1)Recourse obligations on loans sold to Cagamas Berhad (L-1)Minority interest (M-1)
2011446093196547615599770754134194018633783493852106568251671943376292331748042862008254928725555978011131783355625209533515806732200370525236724-346753548817811789697484
2011328674196728116973068832125339014246436776136114373881586665884674601699188132138350892350050959941135702853420240228813913312193687689342208-365316926963813416703029
20112546675190830916168864783125169725785514325193830642511048481725674316442712722575028303644371045380323117665178879818360067188296840271917-330275580161013955656634
20111539167191011315997964175125535423903042267021966310215899039647521315899662223172426087530159800779718809298221620420552814180405404304762-325137881353314449651487
2010451921519303721186246555212783193469043932662263606201785228452296171539829801995880365877161257580948808391230883621327476176872119375529-283987480046416319652188
20103500700193550611455763605126961432492306529399568076417662515501340514925583120354652415810160722882161105966242337218529002174483040508475-285212869004418376659323
2010249940519858741262286692513145503108870141237689215201356049292662971452424282096343295171314948407987062590294760218822598174569299344648-285148276974418567677270
2010149098019996111248076844013059364401606937153860556741206698177274681401111571880952129270715234717976464449495060918878338175609533400989-255079263615121059678328
2009450660720576111283186932713407794666315631031179572751216577766202071353357841758578120024310221818032345200061273022614300170891589270056-251175746429021763692118
2009350319620738221359837300113060664307648543175573237631175075866210641314011351522033150213213222896747648195015656073975652182666158304719-232950542338522794708221
200925246902091164134243740101320515416985134736479656282934449966169801272880981635747205894311206728066714243215858716182177173780410297599-255139550726230574709697
20091485041213791913689769593130916433803864586480102384346757710597614212341296312893861194001610830087331646195024566776868444168133405362364-21392613590131229947735320
2008448885520720181278026601213033623853847259022911349843562637282867191183862951548674514174626367087162913195030623745589879162279564495146-24228173824544537277692026
2008338136220575908875865209125928328437933197364772426349948879941007115903331139884615051416322853967217342570031955367464580155817763376103-22896384135174537323705944
2008236052719932155194361525114219638167191187435822874046495832592657111225252159994412023726295242860041662465632789887039807152174211372200-24284545206183365233658629
2008134557119733644605352530111739037118637225428782227746649803064036104836014120103312899121273266347378102164931665609329283144500317249496-25700364465443690466629239
2007432176220102964631854390112437038232561112249806192740813213872395993279931812188127234902373927467415522202345229610438118138764571153186227923476823658713956404636249
2007330704120542504818655638112199033247768103253501330040874764107713944922331782310169669852230178479248718133327904310897929130651728139204366822941444249413661446656466
200723279082059901471405588311452752826824495777140384683896737277263789932656200389415047431221883547621321744932366619838638123195717165312406180628594264842503598263636920
2007134240720614794593855398113920228596335872301303834138889102879261864808271736723147326612227173487990617265286251248262761165998751242041270991025947143944303101743627326
20064336776209106145481641751134304290380477305691076613895738326481882787652125677912375287231870851593971706126236445637964111793149181959100758292043363333584261284628310
2006337931220648274643356132113931927115552-76671834072579371962680101645100925111388103217182941324152150127112248113273107493496-66727922068428349326271943664747
2006236345620041864799456076109950831432803-6207111393437336171287678059814356945144890246538035416531980826662798283616100566418-79802401801683395896269663681815
20061354084765157471044776191331925372036-44306744002164204245769733423109386171060542742658265002330802531483736070286343582-86917591919409312185280953445567

Financial Quarter Income Statement
yearqrtRevenueIncome tax expenseFinance/interest costsOther incomeAdministrative/Operating expensesMinority interestFinance/interest incomeShare of profit/ (loss) of associatesImpairment lossNet income from Islamic banking businessWrite back/(Allowances) for losses on loans, advance & financingFair value gain/loss on financial assets at fair valueNet fee and commission income
20114332163327721311927518322656147390672463869321656321190415464544487271303
20113327246627903511603465357455575391032418322121340722994813494144426290082
20112317065427110410764067261255285611089232027118552322730516428746800287231
201112991607259257100859670822538602109552210568335860519918514018830441270293
201042971194270169998776725695258121390722005424585122920272414283127815290677
20103287738325706894634742758454713711607212311329481437194929202276--
20102267926123496282295876900533763129401962379251973019844117469728459245431
201012507759224921748030698395427351239918274972634179218519413976231307238423
2009424954522118527954764173151080510132187052942151008220670617787950573220703
2009324380352090837873293716105351158380180711036272054175091176432--
2009223506201998437807263671105159039198176348622891157164988180305--
2009124314611491159530782942514971336528191192622961786144806156354--
2008425575571563361165881313240468155263221177531706893165372150199--
200832791159176520118163526924646058111187214169126321196140814106924--
2008225155791845421102015313505411654134892022700485517368128596147053--
2008126360122391301112865557536450711141152007564326413405123635144386--
200742573079213358109149338970445816627883196289413526516127163103737--
20073241447421148510577033611434224571931218835101559517126223117334--
20072242382619278310816253494164255411585218654111255114011936194392--
2007121462201842269773862892033875441482417399891214398610547791699--
20064218483918792493010726473637298016261168143212634706111994111796--
200632092549156345927325245296354072136561669693138730106658135351--
2006217709191384067797502586903462851972014946501244143108466121844--
2006116872851385256373662300153506231883612988429945310090897054--

Financial Quarter Segments Revenue
yearqrtOthersRetailsOthers CountriesInvestment BankingHire PurchaseCorporate LendingTreasury & Capital MarketFund ManagementHead Office
20114119415896482535994739855114522363238515719941370447
20113114315671992521184707154220021384936237622261763893
20112111414634612438864333453500121436334029723681892380
20111811613835482445775349452203218757433485920850655828
201041215138117425299354120504921194362299682156306126421
2010312541401203257615466784850381924693575301428827286
201021260116813825648648555465704164886306082138606129544
20101126111054182532405178544782315330733684013830619779
20094114910965562667885620042981214335430658212360971402
200931161106901626839845420416371136533254299126407120430
20092106510468652804284891940115713310431338010075424948
2009111071267723288142436033943251316853874658627946352
2008411281164521297838537933886481486223491107579778100
2008336241296747-487463930511765297442649777330425
2008231181258660-7602038423414703349391110729045313
2008131271219811-5433637340217903763556411608954646
2007460311219488-7805036568313270060611614392321088

Financial Quarter Segments Profit
yearqrtOthersRetailsOthers CountriesInvestment BankingHire PurchaseCorporate LendingTreasury & Capital MarketFund ManagementHead Office
20114268371096575470125701732975252265601781694794
201132315690844730981349814778994287568698207924940
201122674673970710741125314689358019458038392567082
201112876618956721391286716115355060419327767750868
20104277067986594777134071756556346230684745809521
201032755619616544931320015896560014399886936530033
20102302854245071112111481640895954851599666949794
201013319452617787701244516688261511555296319825670
20094375348476148935578316817255292584405990810956
20093353645920344962121641576995427161265548054976
200923745430300703111466517193149773570344749927765
2009131833927236352378291238862001474001506266847
200842795567154367526183606333389290471458336121
200832096650738-16394385703669355714452836685
200827930660248-238415804029005303584734710638
200813664796629-25128647181341389694448628690
2007418490560704-735295718247564924206781140158

Short form reference
a_date = announcement date, yr = financial year end, qrt = quarter
h_price = stock highest price during the quarter, l_price = stock lowest price during the quarter
div = dividend recommend or declare in the quarter, roe = return on equity
c_roe = cumulative of return on equity during the financial year
rev = revenue in the current quarter, c_rev = cumulative of revenue during the financial year
pbt = profit before tax in the current quarter, c_pbt = cumulative of profit before tax during the financial year
eps = earnings per share in the current quarter, c_eps = cumulative of earnings per share during the financial year
asset = total asset, liab = total liability, mino = minority interest, equi = total equity
cfo = net cash flow from operating activities, cfi = net cash flow from investing activities
cff = net cash flow from financing activities, cash = cash and cash equivalents as at beginning of financial year
final = cash and cash equivalents as at current financial period ended
share = diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares
c_share = cumulative of diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares during the financial year
m_cap = market capital at announcement date of quarterly report, date = current financial period ended date
prof_m = profit margin, vat = income tax rate, pe = price earning per share ratio of recent four quarter
navps = net asset value per share, ntaps = net tangible asset per share, cps = cash per share
l_cur = liquidity current ratio, l_qui = liquidity quick ratio, l_cash = liquidity cash ratio
g_de = gearing debt to equity ratio, g_da = gearing debt to assets ratio
avg_w = working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
inv_d = days to sell the inventory, rec_d = days to collect the receivables
pay_d = days to pay the payables



6-Months Historical Chart from shareinvestor.com


CURRENT


CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING
ANNUAL REPORTS


HISTORICAL


CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING


ARCHIVES


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1-Years Historical Chart from shareinvestor.com

5-Years Historical Chart from shareinvestor.com

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