KLCI Stock - SEB / 5163 - 2011 Quarter 4

Company Info 

Market Capital (Capital Size)	40,000,000 (Very Small)
Par Value	RM 0.50

My Analysis 

Forecast P/E now	0.5/0.0566 = 8.83 (Moderate)
Target Price	0.0566*10.0 = 0.57 (PE 10.0, EPS 0.0566)
Decision	BUY if stock price moving back to uptrend and got very strong buying volume than selling
Comment	Revenue increased 60.3% and was third consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 35.9%, eps increased 12.4% and was third consecutive quarter increasing but still lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 41.2%, cash generated from operating is more than enough to cover all expenses, gross profit and operating profit margin decreased, weaker liquidity ratio from moderate to low level now, higher gearing ratio at above moderate level now, debt ratio increasing, increased in inventory days and revenue can indicate the Group target to generate more sales, longer payables payment period give Group conserves cash for others activities, higher payables but offset by higher revenue
First Support Price	0.43
Second Support Price	0.4
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Accounting Ratio 

Return on Equity	6.62%
Dividend Yield	-
Gross Profit Margin	12.60%
Operating Profit Margin	6.57%
Net Profit Margin	5.80%
Tax Rate	9.95%
Asset Turnover	0.7347
Net Asset Value Per Share	0.74
Net Tangible Asset per share	0.74
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	0.7
Cash Per Share	0.31
Liquidity Current Ratio	1.6529
Liquidity Quick Ratio	1.1427
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.5163
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.9371
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.4795
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	36.3%
Days to sell the inventory	119
Days to collect the receivables	127
Days to pay the payables	163

Technical Analysis 

SMA 20	0.491 (Downtrend 5 days)
SMA 50	0.456 (Uptrend)
SMA 100	0.439 (Uptrend)
SMA 200	0.46 (Same)
MACD (26d/12d)	0.001715 ( 0.001985 )
Signal (9)	0.004823 ( 0.000777 )
MACD Histogram	0.003108 (Bearish trend 10 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):
- Lower pbt than FY10Q4 due to certain projects recorded lower profit margin and additional initial marketing and operating expenses incurred in venturing into Oil and Gas sector

- Higher pbt than FY11Q3 mainly due to higher sales

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 60392*0.075/79981 = 0.0566, estimate PE on current price 0.5 = 8.83
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = (0.0126+0.0169)*2 = 0.059, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.15/6.69
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0496, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.28/7.76 (DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0496, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.69/8.87 (DPS 0.01)
- Next quarter Q1 result maybe low, use year 2010 cum_eps to estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0431*1.15 = 0.0496(revenue, profit and receivables also largely increased), estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.9/9.98 (DPS 0.01)
- Revenue QbQ increasing more than 15%, use 10% profit margin, estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = (0.0168+0.0193)*2 = 0.0722, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.63/8.1

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