This is my analysis to KLSE stock based on each quarter report. Objective of the blog is to provide a platform for easy visualize company previous quarter reports.
BUY if stock price continue strong sustain around SMA20
Comment
Revenue decreased 0.5% and was second consecutive quarter decreasing but still higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 15%, eps largely increased 1351.9% from loss and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 264.5%, cash generated from operating enough to cover all expenses and still got cash generated from financing to further enhance Group cash, operating margin start recovered, stronger liquidity ratio at moderate level now, lower gearing ratio but still at high level now, slightly lower debt ratio but still high, all collection/repayment is good, lower operating expenses due to coal price decreasing and reduced in use of alternative fuels, affecting by strengthening of USD and JYP against RM
First Support Price
6.5
Second Support Price
6.0
Risk Rating
MODERATE
Research House
Jupiter Target Price
6.84 (2012-03-13)
RHB Target Price
7.6 (2012-04-12)
Maybank Target Price
7.4 (2012-04-13)
MIDF Target Price
7.5 (2012-04-13)
OSK Target Price
7.68 (2012-04-13)
ZJ Target Price
7.2 (2012-04-23)
Alliance Target Price
7.56 (2012-05-25)
CIMB Target Price
7.98 (2012-06-11)
HLG Target Price
7.16 (2012-06-11)
HwangDBS Target Price
7 (2012-06-19)
TA Target Price
7.7 (2012-06-19)
Kenanga Target Price
7.5 (2012-06-26)
AMMB Target Price
7.35 (2012-06-27)
Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity
4.99%
Dividend Yield
2.99%
Gross Profit Margin
0.00%
Operating Profit Margin
44.17%
Net Profit Margin
41.55%
Tax Rate
21.60%
Asset Turnover
0.4015
Net Asset Value Per Share
6.41
Net Tangible Asset per share
6.41
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share
1.02
Cash Per Share
1.66
Liquidity Current Ratio
2.667
Liquidity Quick Ratio
2.3167
Liquidity Cash Ratio
1.1175
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio
1.4299
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio
0.5873
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
39.5%
Days to sell the inventory
33
Days to collect the receivables
103
Days to pay the payables
71
Technical Analysis
SMA 20
6.528 (Uptrend 11 days)
SMA 50
6.469 (Uptrend)
SMA 100
6.379 (Uptrend)
SMA 200
5.954 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d)
0.06377 ( 0.004513 )
Signal (9)
0.038942 ( 0.006207 )
MACD Histogram
0.024828 (Bullish trend 8 days)
Bolinger Upper Band
6.748
Bolinger Lower Band
6.308
My notes based on 2012 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue than FY11Q2 mainly due to an increase in sales of electricity in Peninsular Malaysia and the tariff increase of 7.12% on 1 June 2011 and electricity demand grew by 4.1% in Peninsular and 4.8% in SESB
- Higher pbt mainly due to the fuel cost compensation received from the Government and Petronas amounting to RM2,023 mil and appreciation of the Ringgit has resulted in a foreign exchange translation gain of RM209.3 mil (vs FY11Q2)
- Compared to FY12Q1, operating expenses were lower mainly due to lower generation costs from reduced utilisation of oil and distillate
- The strengthening of the Ringgit against the Japanese Yen and the USD resulted in a higher foreign exchange gain of RM628.4 mil
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = 35162500*0.1/5457914 = 0.6442, estimate PE on current price 6.7 = 10.09(DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 30044200*0.08/5456669 = 0.4405(ROE 8%), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.15/13.2 (DPS 0.045)
- Price moving after 2011 Q4 result announced mainly base on technical analysis and ad-hos news, however if based on average eps of FY11Q1 & FY11Q2 and higher tariff, 4Q eps = 0.4424*1.2 = 0.5309, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.97/9.97 (DPS 0.045)
- Price moving after 2011 Q3 result announced mainly base on technical analysis and ad-hos news, however if based on average eps of FY11Q1 & FY11Q2, 4Q eps = 0.1229*4*0.9 = 0.4424, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.18/10.61 (DPS 0.195)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.1415+0.163)*2*1.05 = 0.6395, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.96/9.01 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.7355*0.8 = 0.5884, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.74/9.74 (DPS 0.21)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.089*4 = 0.356, estimate highest/lowest PE = 24.21/21.88 (DPS 0.26)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.71*1.05 = 0.7455 (5% increase adjustment), estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.22/11.21 (DPS 0.183)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.2066+0.1859+0.1673+0.1506 = 0.71 (average 10% drop each quarter, coal price increasing but strong Ringgit offset some impact), estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.14/11.01 (DPS 0.183)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.6484, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.38/11.67 (DPS 0.163)
6.02+0.2247 = 6.24 (PE 15.0, EPS 0.401, DPS 0.2247)
Decision
BUY if stock price below SMA20 and sell volume is not high or when MACD move back to bullish trend
Comment
Revenue decreased 21.5% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 6.5%, eps decreased 17.5% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 5.5%, cash generated from operating enough for financing expenses and also got enough cash generated from financing to cover all investing expenses, operating margin still maintaining high, stronger liquidity ratio from moderate to high level now, lower gearing ratio from high to above moderate level now, debt ratio decreased 11% from historical high, primary profit contribution segment - Airport services still growth and benefit from new rate
First Support Price
5.5
Second Support Price
5.3
Risk Rating
LOW
Research House
HLG Target Price
6.5 (2012-04-27)
HwangDBS Target Price
6.05 (2012-04-27)
Maybank Target Price
7.1 (2012-04-27)
MIDF Target Price
6.72 (2012-04-27)
CIMB Target Price
6.05 (2012-06-01)
OSK Target Price
7.53 (2012-06-04)
Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity
12.36%
Dividend Yield
4.05%
Gross Profit Margin
89.50%
Operating Profit Margin
25.96%
Net Profit Margin
23.36%
Tax Rate
33.15%
Asset Turnover
0.3521
Net Asset Value Per Share
3.82
Net Tangible Asset per share
-0.6
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share
-9.58
Cash Per Share
1.09
Liquidity Current Ratio
2.86
Liquidity Quick Ratio
2.7349
Liquidity Cash Ratio
1.7966
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio
0.8695
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio
0.4651
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
44.8%
Days to sell the inventory
233
Days to collect the receivables
82
Days to pay the payables
1765
Technical Analysis
SMA 20
5.634 (Downtrend 3 days)
SMA 50
5.673 (Downtrend)
SMA 100
5.635 (Same)
SMA 200
5.637 (Downtrend)
MACD (26d/12d)
-0.012123 ( 0.006635 )
Signal (9)
-0.005275 ( 0.001712 )
MACD Histogram
0.006848 (Bearish trend 2 days)
Bolinger Upper Band
5.78
Bolinger Lower Band
5.488
My notes based on 2012 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt than FY11Q1 mainly contributed by a positive growth of 18.1% or RM37.1 million from aeronautical revenue which was mostly derived from passenger service charges and landing charges driven by higher passenger and aircraft numbers and the implementation of new rates. However, the increase in revenue from passenger service charges was negated by lower MARCS PSC as the Group is no longer entitled to claim for MARCS PSC upon the implementation of the new rates which is equivalent to the benchmark rate as stipulated in the operating agreements signed on 12 February 2009. Further, the improvement in revenue was also derived from the Group’s retail business which improved by 15.8% or RM17.9 million riding on the passenger growth, particularly from LCCT
- Hotel revenue grew 34% or RM5.3 million due to higher revenue from food and beverage related services which increased by 61.0% or RM3.7 million contributed by the catering business for various events held at Sepang International Circuit. Revenue from room occupancy also contributed to the positive variance by 17.0% or RM1.6 million mainly resulting from higher average room rates despite lower occupancy by 2.3% from 71.5%
- The decrease in agriculture revenue was due to lower price attained for fresh fruit bunches (“FFB”) per tonne (RM148 or 18.7% lower) coupled with lower production volume for the period (a decrease of 3,164MT or 18.8%) (2012: 13,647MT / RM643, 2011:16,811MT / RM791). The FFB price was determined by the price of Crude Palm Oil (CPO) traded in the market. The decrease in production was in line with the industry outlook due to the occurrence of El Nino in recent years which have a direct effect on the current oil palm yield
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 4256630*0.105/1114505 = 0.401, estimate PE on current price 5.55 = 13.28(DPS 0.2247)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 3546869*0.12/1100000 = 0.3869, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15/13.78 (DPS 0.2247)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = (0.0745+0.0983)*2 = 0.3456, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.1/15.03 (DPS 0.1975)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0745*4 = 0.298, estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.65/14.44 (DPS 0.1975)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0801*4*1.1 = 0.3524, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.57/17.26 (DPS 0.1975)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0764*4*1.1 = 0.3362(deduct 16 million other income for adjustment), estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.64/17.31 (DPS 0.1975)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.06*4*1.1 = 0.264(associates increasing loss), estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.49/21.41 (DPS 0.149)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.3233*0.95 = 0.3071, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.12/16.55 (DPS 0.229)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.3429*0.9 = 0.3086 (10% drop from 0.3429), estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.24/14.81 (DPS 0.229)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.086*4 = 0.344, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.97/12.89 (DPS 0.233)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0758*4 = 0.3032, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.72/11.36 (DPS 0.233)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.068*4 = 0.272, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.18/11.6 (DPS 0.1855)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0695*4 = 0.278, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.07/10.27 (DPS 0.1855)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.069*4 = 0.276, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.37/7.63 (DPS 0.1855)
The Group's principal activity is providing products and services to individual customer and small- and medium - sized enterprises such as credit facilities, credit cards, remittance services, deposits collection and investment products. Other activities are trading treasury related products and services, providing fund management, providing financial solution and direct lending and lending corporate funds. Operations are carried out in Malaysia, Hong Kong SAR, Sri Lanka, Socialist Republic of Vietnam, Cambodia and the People's Democratic Republic of Laos.
14.58+0.48 = 15.06 (PE 13.0, EPS 1.1213, DPS 0.48)
Decision
BUY if MACD bullish trend with stock price strong sustain above SMA20 and uptrend follow Bolinger upper band
Comment
Revenue increased 1.6% and was continuous increasing since FY09Q2 (higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 12.8%) and also is highest all the time, eps increased 7.3% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 6.4%, no cash generated from operating after deducted assets increased expenses and cash generated from others activities also not enough hence spent 12.2% of Group cash to cover, operating margin maintaining very high, primary profit contribution segment - Retails still achieved rapid growth
First Support Price
13.6
Second Support Price
12.8
Risk Rating
LOW
Research House
MIDF Target Price
13.3 (2012-01-31)
Kenanga Target Price
15.5 (2012-03-28)
RHB Target Price
16.07 (2012-04-02)
CIMB Target Price
15.6 (2012-04-19)
ECM Target Price
13 (2012-04-19)
HLG Target Price
14.09 (2012-04-19)
HwangDBS Target Price
15 (2012-04-19)
Maybank Target Price
15.4 (2012-04-19)
OSK Target Price
14.4 (2012-04-19)
AMMB Target Price
16.7 (2012-06-14)
Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity
25.14%
Dividend Yield
3.48%
Gross Profit Margin
0.00%
Operating Profit Margin
36.90%
Net Profit Margin
36.92%
Tax Rate
23.83%
Asset Turnover
0.0516
Net Asset Value Per Share
4.48
Net Tangible Asset per share
3.93
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share
3.51
Cash Per Share
6.36
Liquidity Current Ratio
1.1058
Liquidity Quick Ratio
0.9027
Liquidity Cash Ratio
0.0981
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio
15.2028
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio
0.9358
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
183.0%
Days to sell the inventory
2010
Days to collect the receivables
5007
Days to pay the payables
9692
Technical Analysis
SMA 20
13.723 (Uptrend 10 days)
SMA 50
13.704 (Uptrend)
SMA 100
13.69 (Uptrend)
SMA 200
13.084 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d)
0.027056 ( 0.002858 )
Signal (9)
0.016102 ( 0.002739 )
MACD Histogram
0.010954 (Bullish trend 20 days)
Bolinger Upper Band
13.847
Bolinger Lower Band
13.599
My notes based on 2012 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Higher pbt mainly due to higher net interest and finance income, higher net fee and commission income and impairment allowance on loans had shown a drop of RM35.0 million (53.8%) mainly due to lower collective and individual impairment allowance resulting from improved asset quality offset by higher other operating expenses which was mainly due to the increase in personnel and establishment costs resulting from higher business volume
- The growth in net interest income and finance income was driven by continued strong loans and customer deposits growth coupled with sustained strong asset quality mainly arising from property financing, financing of passenger vehicles and lending to small- and medium-sized enterprises
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 16362715*0.24/3502125 = 1.1213, estimate PE on current price 13.8 = 11.88(DPS 0.48)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 15560706*0.224/3502125 = 0.9953, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.62/13.08 (DPS 0.48)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.2566*4*1.05 = 1.0777, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.09/10.92 (DPS 0.53)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.2514*4 = 1.0056, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.93/11.12 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.2363*4*1.05 = 0.9925, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.98/12.49 (DPS 0.58)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.2416*4 = 0.9664, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.41/12.69 (DPS 0.58)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.2235*4 = 0.894, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.65/13.42 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.2096*4 = 0.8384, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.69/13.62 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.197*4 = 0.788, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.87/13.59 (DPS 0.55)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1965*4 = 0.786, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.64/13.22 (DPS 0.55)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.1852*4 = 0.7408, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.65/13.59 (DPS 0.55)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.177*4 = 0.708, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.34/13.12 (DPS 0.55)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.1744*4 = 0.6976, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.19/11.11 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.1949*4 = 0.7796, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.22/8.34 (DPS 0.5)
Statutory deposits with Bank Negara Malaysia (A-1)
Debt securities issued and other borrowed funds (L-0)
Deferred tax liabilities (L-0)
Bills payables (L-1)
Deposits & placements of banks & other financial institutions (L-1)
Deposits from customers (L-1)
Derivative financial liabilities (L-1)
Obligations on securities sold under repurchase agreements (L-1)
Other liabilities (L-1)
Provision for taxation (L-1)
Recourse obligations on loans sold to Cagamas Berhad (L-1)
Minority interest (M-1)
2012
1
58097
1927873
153063
64321
1308745
16317212
355591
13970493
17944973
6670138
180235721
2208525
7574909
5960209
11134777
58235
2755258
12382243
207117343
267504
-
3789649
870861
11285
682188
2011
4
46093
1965476
155997
70754
1341940
18633783
493852
10656825
16719433
7629233
175952777
2008254
9287255
5597801
11317833
55625
2095335
15806732
200370525
236724
-
3467535
777405
11789
697484
2011
3
28674
1967281
169730
68832
1253390
14246436
776136
11437388
15866658
8467460
169918813
2138350
8923500
5095994
11357028
53420
2402288
13913312
193687689
342208
-
3653169
269638
13416
703029
2011
2
546675
1908309
161688
64783
1251697
25785514
325193
8306425
11048481
7256743
164427127
2257502
8303644
3710453
8032311
7665
1788798
18360067
188296840
271917
-
3302755
801610
13955
656634
2011
1
539167
1910113
159979
64175
1255354
23903042
267021
9663102
15899039
6475213
158996622
2317242
6087530
1598007
7971880
9298
2216204
20552814
180405404
304762
-
3251378
813533
14449
651487
2010
4
519215
1930372
118624
65552
1278319
34690439
326622
6360620
17852284
5229617
153982980
1995880
365877
1612575
8094880
8391
2308836
21327476
176872119
375529
-
2839874
800464
16319
652188
2010
3
500700
1935506
114557
63605
1269614
32492306
529399
5680764
17662515
5013405
149255831
2035465
2415810
1607228
8216110
5966
2423372
18529002
174483040
508475
-
2852128
690044
18376
659323
2010
2
499405
1985874
126228
66925
1314550
31088701
412376
8921520
13560492
9266297
145242428
2096343
2951713
1494840
7987062
5902
947602
18822598
174569299
344648
-
2851482
769744
18567
677270
2010
1
490980
1999611
124807
68440
1305936
44016069
371538
6055674
12066981
7727468
140111157
1880952
1292707
1523471
7976464
4494
950609
18878338
175609533
400989
-
2550792
636151
21059
678328
2009
4
506607
2057611
128318
69327
1340779
46663156
310311
7957275
12165777
6620207
135335784
1758578
1200243
1022181
8032345
2000
612730
22614300
170891589
270056
-
2511757
464290
21763
692118
2009
3
503196
2073822
135983
73001
1306066
43076485
431755
7323763
11750758
6621064
131401135
1522033
1502132
1322289
6747648
1950
1565607
3975652
182666158
304719
-
2329505
423385
22794
708221
2009
2
524690
2091164
134243
74010
1320515
41698513
473647
9656282
9344499
6616980
127288098
1635747
2058943
1120672
8066714
2432
1585871
6182177
173780410
297599
-
2551395
507262
30574
709697
2009
1
485041
2137919
136897
69593
1309164
33803864
586480
10238434
6757710
5976142
123412963
1289386
11940016
1083008
7331646
1950
2456677
6868444
168133405
362364
-
2139261
359013
1229947
735320
2008
4
488855
2072018
127802
66012
1303362
38538472
590229
11349843
5626372
8286719
118386295
1548674
5141746
2636708
7162913
1950
3062374
5589879
162279564
495146
-
2422817
382454
4537277
692026
2008
3
381362
2057590
88758
65209
1259283
28437933
197364
7724263
4994887
9941007
115903331
1398846
15051416
3228539
6721734
25700
3195536
7464580
155817763
376103
-
2289638
413517
4537323
705944
2008
2
360527
1993215
51943
61525
1142196
38167191
187435
8228740
4649583
2592657
111225252
1599944
12023726
2952428
6004166
24656
3278988
7039807
152174211
372200
-
2428454
520618
3365233
658629
2008
1
345571
1973364
46053
52530
1117390
37118637
225428
7822277
4664980
3064036
104836014
1201033
12899121
2732663
4737810
21649
3166560
9329283
144500317
249496
-
2570036
446544
3690466
629239
2007
4
321762
2010296
46318
54390
1124370
38232561
112249
8061927
4081321
3872395
99327993
1812188
12723490
2373927
4674155
22202
3452296
10438118
138764571
153186
2279
2347682
365871
3956404
636249
2007
3
307041
2054250
48186
55638
1121990
33247768
103253
5013300
4087476
4107713
94492233
1782310
16966985
2230178
4792487
18133
3279043
10897929
130651728
139204
3668
2294144
424941
3661446
656466
2007
2
327908
2059901
47140
55883
1145275
28268244
95777
14038468
3896737
2772637
89932656
2003894
15047431
2218835
4762132
17449
3236661
9838638
123195717
165312
4061806
2859426
484250
3598263
636920
2007
1
342407
2061479
45938
55398
1139202
28596335
87230
13038341
3888910
2879261
86480827
1736723
14732661
2227173
4879906
17265
2862512
4826276
116599875
124204
12709910
2594714
394430
3101743
627326
2006
4
336776
2091061
45481
64175
1134304
29038047
73056
9107661
3895738
3264818
82787652
1256779
12375287
2318708
5159397
17061
2623644
5637964
111793149
181959
10075829
2043363
333584
261284
628310
2006
3
379312
2064827
46433
56132
1139319
27115552
-
7667183
4072579
3719626
80101645
1009251
11388103
2171829
4132415
21501
2711224
8113273
107493496
-
6672792
2068428
349326
271943
664747
2006
2
363456
2004186
47994
56076
1099508
31432803
-
6207111
3934373
3617128
76780598
1435694
5144890
2465380
3541653
19808
2666279
8283616
100566418
-
7980240
1801683
395896
269663
681815
2006
1
354084
765157
47104
47761
913319
25372036
-
4430674
4002164
2042457
69733423
1093861
7106054
2742658
2650023
3080
2531483
7360702
86343582
-
8691759
1919409
312185
280953
445567
Financial Quarter Income Statement
year
qrt
Revenue
Income tax expense
Other income
Administrative/Operating expenses
Minority interest
Share of profit/ (loss) of associates
Impairment loss
Net income from Islamic banking business
Write back/(Allowances) for losses on loans, advance & financing
Net fee and commission income
Interest income
Interest expense
Net gains and losses on financial instruments
2012
1
3373450
296857
72050
593428
7902
884
521
211665
30013
283950
2482883
1215276
33377
2011
4
3321633
277213
83226
561473
9067
3216
563
211904
154645
271303
2463869
1192751
44487
2011
3
3272466
279035
53574
555753
9103
1213
407
229948
134941
290082
2418322
1160346
44426
2011
2
3170654
271104
72612
552856
11089
1855
23
227305
164287
287231
2320271
1076406
46800
2011
1
2991607
278052
70822
538602
10955
3358
605
199185
65066
270293
2210568
1008596
30441
2010
4
2971194
270169
72569
525812
13907
4585
1229
202724
142831
290677
2200542
998776
27815
2010
3
2877383
257068
427584
547137
11607
2948
1437
194929
202276
-
2123113
946347
-
2010
2
2679261
234962
76900
533763
12940
2519
730
198441
174697
245431
1962379
822958
28459
2010
1
2507759
224921
69839
542735
12399
2634
1792
185194
139762
238423
1827497
748030
31307
2009
4
2495452
211852
41731
510805
10132
4215
10082
206706
177879
220703
1870529
795476
50573
2009
3
2438035
209083
371610
535115
8380
3627
2054
175091
176432
-
1807110
787329
-
2009
2
2350620
199843
367110
515903
9198
2289
1157
164988
180305
-
1763486
780726
-
2009
1
2431461
149115
294251
497133
6528
2296
1786
144806
156354
-
1911926
953078
-
2008
4
2557557
156336
313240
468155
2632
1706
893
165372
150199
-
2117753
1165881
-
2008
3
2791159
176520
269246
460581
11187
2632
1196
140814
106924
-
2141691
1181635
-
2008
2
2515579
184542
313505
411654
13489
4855
17368
128596
147053
-
2022700
1102015
-
2008
1
2636012
239130
557536
450711
14115
3264
13405
123635
144386
-
2007564
1112865
-
2007
4
2573079
213358
389704
458166
27883
1352
6516
127163
103737
-
1962894
1091493
-
2007
3
2414474
211485
361143
422457
19312
1559
517
126223
117334
-
1883510
1057703
-
2007
2
2423826
192783
349416
425541
15852
1255
1140
119361
94392
-
1865411
1081625
-
2007
1
2146220
184226
289203
387544
14824
1214
3986
105477
91699
-
1739989
977386
-
2006
4
2184839
187924
264736
372980
16261
1263
4706
111994
111796
-
1681432
930107
-
2006
3
2092549
156345
245296
354072
13656
1387
30
106658
135351
-
1669693
927325
-
2006
2
1770919
138406
258690
346285
19720
1244
143
108466
121844
-
1494650
779750
-
2006
1
1687285
138525
230015
350623
18836
994
53
100908
97054
-
1298842
637366
-
Financial Quarter Segments Revenue
year
qrt
Others
Retails
Others Countries
Investment Banking
Hire Purchase
Corporate Lending
Treasury & Capital Market
Fund Management
Head Office
2012
1
1166
1639528
247234
46619
555124
225168
367517
210417
80677
2011
4
1194
1589648
253599
47398
551145
223632
385157
199413
70447
2011
3
1143
1567199
252118
47071
542200
213849
362376
222617
63893
2011
2
1114
1463461
243886
43334
535001
214363
340297
236818
92380
2011
1
8116
1383548
244577
53494
522032
187574
334859
208506
55828
2010
4
1215
1381174
252993
54120
504921
194362
299682
156306
126421
2010
3
1254
1401203
257615
46678
485038
192469
357530
142882
7286
2010
2
1260
1168138
256486
48555
465704
164886
306082
138606
129544
2010
1
1261
1105418
253240
51785
447823
153307
336840
138306
19779
2009
4
1149
1096556
266788
56200
429812
143354
306582
123609
71402
2009
3
1161
1069016
268398
45420
416371
136533
254299
126407
120430
2009
2
1065
1046865
280428
48919
401157
133104
313380
100754
24948
2009
1
1107
1267723
288142
43603
394325
131685
387465
86279
46352
2008
4
1128
1164521
297838
53793
388648
148622
349110
75797
78100
2008
3
3624
1296747
-
48746
393051
176529
744264
97773
30425
2008
2
3118
1258660
-
76020
384234
147033
493911
107290
45313
2008
1
3127
1219811
-
54336
373402
179037
635564
116089
54646
2007
4
6031
1219488
-
78050
365683
132700
606116
143923
21088
Financial Quarter Segments Profit
year
qrt
Others
Retails
Others Countries
Investment Banking
Hire Purchase
Corporate Lending
Treasury & Capital Market
Fund Management
Head Office
2012
1
2997
748927
72757
14398
182711
75582
46725
87688
12902
2011
4
2683
710965
75470
12570
173297
52522
65601
78169
4794
2011
3
2315
690844
73098
13498
147789
94287
56869
82079
24940
2011
2
2674
673970
71074
11253
146893
58019
45803
83925
67082
2011
1
2876
618956
72139
12867
161153
55060
41932
77677
50868
2010
4
2770
679865
94777
13407
175655
63462
30684
74580
9521
2010
3
2755
619616
54493
13200
158965
60014
39988
69365
30033
2010
2
3028
542450
71112
11148
164089
59548
51599
66694
9794
2010
1
3319
452617
78770
12445
166882
61511
55529
63198
25670
2009
4
3753
484761
48935
5783
168172
55292
58440
59908
10956
2009
3
3536
459203
44962
12164
157699
54271
61265
54805
4976
2009
2
3745
430300
70311
14665
171931
49773
57034
47499
27765
2009
1
3183
392723
63523
7829
123886
20014
74001
50626
6847
2008
4
2795
567154
36752
6183
60633
33892
90471
45833
6121
2008
3
2096
650738
-
16394
38570
36693
55714
45283
6685
2008
2
7930
660248
-
23841
58040
29005
30358
47347
10638
2008
1
3664
796629
-
25128
64718
13413
89694
44862
8690
2007
4
18490
560704
-
73529
57182
47564
92420
67811
40158
Short form reference a_date = announcement date, yr = financial year end, qrt = quarter h_price = stock highest price during the quarter, l_price = stock lowest price during the quarter div = dividend recommend or declare in the quarter, roe = return on equity c_roe = cumulative of return on equity during the financial year rev = revenue in the current quarter, c_rev = cumulative of revenue during the financial year pbt = profit before tax in the current quarter, c_pbt = cumulative of profit before tax during the financial year eps = earnings per share in the current quarter, c_eps = cumulative of earnings per share during the financial year asset = total asset, liab = total liability, mino = minority interest, equi = total equity cfo = net cash flow from operating activities, cfi = net cash flow from investing activities cff = net cash flow from financing activities, cash = cash and cash equivalents as at beginning of financial year final = cash and cash equivalents as at current financial period ended share = diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares c_share = cumulative of diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares during the financial year m_cap = market capital at announcement date of quarterly report, date = current financial period ended date prof_m = profit margin, vat = income tax rate, pe = price earning per share ratio of recent four quarter navps = net asset value per share, ntaps = net tangible asset per share, cps = cash per share l_cur = liquidity current ratio, l_qui = liquidity quick ratio, l_cash = liquidity cash ratio g_de = gearing debt to equity ratio, g_da = gearing debt to assets ratio avg_w = working capital per thousand Ringgit sale inv_d = days to sell the inventory, rec_d = days to collect the receivables pay_d = days to pay the payables
BUY for dividend keep unless stock price strongly below Bolinger lower band
Comment
Revenue increased 1.6% and was continuous increasing since FY09Q2 and also is highest all the time(higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 9.7%), eps decreased 18.7% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 3.3%, cash generated from operating enough to cover financing expenses and got more than enough loan to cover investing expenses, operating margin lower than FY11Q1 but still very high, better liquidity ratio but still as usual at weak level now, higher gearing rato at very high level now, higher debt ratio at historical high, payables repayment period as usual around 6 month, mobile internet continuing growth
First Support Price
4.0
Second Support Price
3.85
Risk Rating
LOW
Research House
RHB Target Price
4.4 (2012-01-20)
MIDF Target Price
4.35 (2012-03-15)
Kenanga Target Price
4.15 (2012-03-28)
CIMB Target Price
3.75 (2012-04-26)
HwangDBS Target Price
3.9 (2012-04-26)
Maybank Target Price
3.6 (2012-04-27)
HLG Target Price
3.72 (2012-05-22)
Jupiter Target Price
4.2 (2012-05-29)
Alliance Target Price
4.08 (2012-06-13)
OSK Target Price
4.07 (2012-06-18)
Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity
91.27%
Dividend Yield
5.97%
Gross Profit Margin
0.00%
Operating Profit Margin
25.92%
Net Profit Margin
25.86%
Tax Rate
20.99%
Asset Turnover
1.2046
Net Asset Value Per Share
0.16
Net Tangible Asset per share
0.07
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share
56.57
Cash Per Share
0.2
Liquidity Current Ratio
0.7538
Liquidity Quick Ratio
0.7294
Liquidity Cash Ratio
0.5612
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio
3.13
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio
0.7579
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
-10.9%
Days to sell the inventory
5
Days to collect the receivables
27
Days to pay the payables
191
Technical Analysis
SMA 20
4.044 (Uptrend 12 days)
SMA 50
3.975 (Uptrend)
SMA 100
3.951 (Uptrend)
SMA 200
2.68 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d)
0.05425 ( 0.004769 )
Signal (9)
0.037665 ( 0.004146 )
MACD Histogram
0.016585 (Bullish trend 18 days)
Bolinger Upper Band
4.225
Bolinger Lower Band
3.863
My notes based on 2012 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue due to higher contributions from mobile internet revenue and higher handset sales offset by voice revenue amidst higher competitive pressure particularly in the prepaid segment
- Lower pat than FY11Q4 mainly due to inclusion of 2009 to 2011’s tax incentives related to mobile broadband network facilities which resulted in significantly lower effective tax rate
- In the prepaid segment, DiGi’s prepaid customer base was at par with the previous quarter. This was mainly driven by seasonally lower sales and high churn this quarter. ARPU for the quarter was marginally lower at RM41 (Q411: RM42) and this was mainly due to price competition in the IDD sub-segment
- In the postpaid segment, DiGi added 31k new customers (Q411: 39k). The steady growth in postpaid customers continued to be supported by attractive smart-phone/tablet bundles. Postpaid ARPU was slightly lower at RM85 (Q411: RM86) due to festive business closures
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 1226691*0.92/7775000 = 0.1452, estimate PE on current price 4.19 = 27.13(DPS 0.25)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 1411431*0.88/7775000 = 0.1598, estimate highest/lowest PE = 26.03/23.4 (DPS 0.16)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.42*4*1.05 = 1.764, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.23/18.66 (DPS 1.48)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.4262*4*1.05 = 1.79, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.8/15.02 (DPS 1.72)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.4262*4 = 1.7048, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.6/15.31 (DPS 1.72)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 1.5151*1.1 = 1.6666, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.42/14.85 (DPS 1.63)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 1.4051*1.1 = 1.5456, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.11/12.46 (DPS 1.74)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 1.3254*1.1 = 1.4579(10% grow from 1.3254), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.85/13.04 (DPS 1.99)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 1.3254(3% grow from 1.2868), estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.27/15.01 (DPS 2.13)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.317*4 = 1.268, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.21/15.82 (DPS 1.78)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.3139*4 = 1.2556, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.27/15.47 (DPS 1.77)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.3016*4 = 1.2064, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.12/16.21 (DPS 1.75)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.3543*4 = 1.4172, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.51/14.1 (DPS 1.62)
