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Saturday, March 3, 2012

KLCI Stock - F&N / 3689 - 2012 Quarter 1


Company Info 
Market Capital (Capital Size)6,472,732,689 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis 
Forecast P/E now(17.92-0.63)/0.705 = 24.52 (High)
Target Price12.69+0.63 = 13.32 (PE 18.0, EPS 0.705, DPS 0.63)
DecisionNot interested unless MACD moving up from very low
Comment
Revenue decreased 25.3% and also lower than preceding year corresponding period 27.7%, eps decreased 37.1% and was third consecutive quarter decreasing and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 61.3%, no cash generated from operating due to increased assets and reduced liabilities hence spent 25.2% of Group cash to cover, slightly stronger liquidity ratio at low level now, lower gearing ratio at moderate level now, all accounting ratio are good, affecting by high skimmed milk powder and sugar price increasing
First Support Price17.16
Second Support Price16.0
Risk RatingHIGH

Research House
CIMB Target Price13.1 (2011-08-08)
Maybank Target Price15.4 (2012-02-08)
MIDF Target Price14 (2012-02-08)

Accounting Ratio 
Return on Equity20.89%
Dividend Yield3.74%
Profit Margin7.20%
Tax Rate22.03%
Asset Turnover1.4638
Net Asset Value Per Share4.41
Net Tangible Asset per share4.04
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share4.36
Cash Per Share0.6
Liquidity Current Ratio1.8299
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.2527
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.3171
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.5525
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.3558
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale15.7%
Days to sell the inventory44
Days to collect the receivables59
Days to pay the payables71

Technical Analysis 
SMA 2017.697 (Uptrend 7 days)
SMA 5017.752 (Uptrend)
SMA 10016.844 (Uptrend)
SMA 20016.989 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d)0.061522 ( 0.001618 )
Signal (9)0.036404 ( 0.006279 )
MACD Histogram0.025118 (Bullish trend 9 days)

My notes based on 2012 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Lower revenue due to the Group no longer distributes Coca-Cola products and negative impact of the flood in Thailand

- Lower pbt mainly attributable to absence of Coca-Cola contribution, the different timing in the accounting of operating losses in Thailand and recovery under its Business Interruption insurance policy, higher raw material costs particularly skimmed milk powder & sugar and lower sales in Dairies Malaysia

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 1597694*0.16/362592 = 0.705(ROE 16%), estimate PE on current price 17.92 = 24.52(DPS 0.63 - 90% of eps)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.2151*4*0.95 = 0.8174, estimate highest/lowest PE = 22.18/19.78 (DPS 0.97)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = (0.3+0.2151)*2*0.7 = 0.7211, estimate highest/lowest PE = 25.64/21.43 (DPS 0.41)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.3*4 = 1.2(exclude RM53 million from sale of property income), estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.02/14.52 (DPS 0.58)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.2*4 = 0.8(around 5% ROE), estimate highest/lowest PE = 22.09/18.07 (DPS 0.545)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.875*0.95 = 0.8313, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.58/15.82 (DPS 1.645)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.8236(correction), estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.53/15.85 (DPS 0.465)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 1.0072(10% grow from 0.4578*2), estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.43/10.18 (DPS 0.465)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.961(10% grow from 0.2184*4), estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.06/10.44 (DPS 0.47)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.8195, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.58/12.04 (DPS 0.47)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.8, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.79/11.29 (DPS 0.47)

F&N latest news (English)

F&N latest news (Chinese)

Material price

2 comments:

structured settlement cash said...

In Malaysia, the Company is principally involved in the civil engineering, building and road construction works, and property development. In South Africa , the Company is principally involved in civil engineering, construction works,

Rei said...

F&N , slow moving company, too expensive to move her, well, good for investment but not at this PE. maybe around RM15 would be a good play :)

realise you are having advertisement from innity, good income ?

care to visit my blog
reiccs.blogspot.com

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