Market Cap : 172608020*0.92 = 158,799,378.40 (Small)
NTA per share : (189100-11185)/174914 = 1.02
P/BV : 0.92/1.02 = 0.902 (Undervalue)
Forecast P/E now : (0.92-0.04)/0.1442 = 6.1 (Moderate)
ROE : 14.69% (Moderate)
DY : 0.04/0.92*100 = 4.35% (Low)
Fixed Asset Turnover(4 year) : (0.791+0.9522+0.8566+0.8243)/4 = 0.856 (Moderate)
Liquidity Ratio : 564736/473041 = 1.1938 (Moderate)
Receivables Collection Period : (183237+183835)/2/(535835/365) = 125 days (Long)
My Target Price : 1.01+0.04 = 1.05 (PE 7, EPS 0.1442, DPS 0.04)
My Decision : NOT BUY (unless revenue grow)
My Comment : Total revenue for year 2009 less than year 2008, margin improved, good cash flow, high debt, navps increasing, strong cash
Technical Support Price : 0.9, 0.76
Risk Rating : HIGH
My study based on 2009 Quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- The Group recorded improvement in net profit for the Group as compared in the preceding year is mainly contributed by improvement in margin from sales of cranes
- The Group recorded increase of profit before tax as compared in the preceding quarter, mainly due to increase in sales
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1442(10% drop from 0.1602, revenue drop and margin expect will not increase much), estimate PE on current price 0.92 = 6.1(DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.1442, estimate highest/lowest PE = 5.76/4.99 (DPS 0.025)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.1442, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.45/5.49 (DPS 0.025)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.1442, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.11/5.72 (DPS 0.025)
FAVCO latest news from The Edge (English)
Risk and Ruin
2 days ago
2 comments:
FAVCO's revenue declined marginally by 8% (last year is an exceptional tough year for most companies) but net profit improved by 27%. Its CAGR in revenue and profit for the last 4 years is about 15% and 41% respectively. It is highly leveraged at 3.6X but its EBIT is about 9X interest expense and hence should be quite ok. Most interestingly, its operating cash flows per share of last year is 54 sen giving a price to OCF of only 1.7. Its OCF averaging 30 sen per share for the last 4 years. It is distributing a dividend of 4 sen per share or DY=4.4%. FAVCO appears to be a very good investment to me.
Thank your comment, my idea is this stock is still got possible to test it downtrend since revenue still dropping. If the company recovery from 2008 crisis then i will expect year 2009 result will be better than 2008. Let check in next quarter again whether is recovery or not.
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