KLCI Stock - KPJ / 5878 - 2009 Quarter 4

Market Cap : 528926822*2.85= 1,507,441,442.70 (Medium)
NTA per share : (622846-116486)/207843 = 2.44
P/BV : 2.85/2.44 = 1.168 (Low)
Forecast P/E now : (2.85-0.2)/0.2174 = 12.19 (Moderate)
ROE : 15.25% (Moderate)
DY : 0.08/2.85*100 = 2.81% (Low)
Fixed Asset Turnover(4 year) : (1.0821+0.9913+0.9198+0.7546)/4 = 0.937 (Getting better)
Liquidity Ratio : 501595/335419 = 1.4954 (Moderate)
Receivables Collection Period : (229104+ 195362)/2/(1446370/365) = 53 days (Acceptable)
My Target Price : 3.04+0.08 = 3.12 (EPS 0.2174, PE 14, DPS 0.08), more than 9% profit from 2.85
My Decision : BUY
My Other Comments : Revenue growing, high debt, good cash flow, strong cash
Risk Rating : LOW
OSK Target Price : 3.92

My study based on 2009 Quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- The profit before taxation for the current quarter has increased by 58.2%, mainly due to higher activities recorded by the hospitals
- The operating revenue for the current quarter increased as compared to preceding quarter. Despite the increase in revenue, the profit before taxation for the current quarter has increased by only 1.4%, this is due to the results reported in the preceding quarter was inclusive of gain from disposal of hospital buildings
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1359*4 = 0.5436(after split 2.5 = 0.2174), estimate PE on current price 2.95(before split 7.39) = 13.23(DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.1291*4 = 0.5164, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.24/6.29 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.1188*4 = 0.4752, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.61/6.92 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.1046*4 = 0.4184, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.29/6.74 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.107*4 = 0.428, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.99/6.17 (DPS 0.07)

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