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Tuesday, November 1, 2011

KLCI Stock - UMCCA / 2593 - 2012 Quarter 1

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)1,357,809,276 (Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(6.7-0.25)/0.5134 = 12.56 (Moderate)
Target Price7.19+0.25 = 7.44 (PE 14.0, EPS 0.5134, DPS 0.25)
DecisionBUY if stock price next uptrend start above 6.5
Revenue increased 14.7% and was second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 63.1%, eps increased 26.8% and was third consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 76.3%, cash generated from operating more than enough to cover all expenses, slightly weaker liquidity ratio at very strong level now, slightly higher gearing ratio at low level now, all accounting ratio are good, crop production increasing, CPO price decreasing
First Support Price6.5
Second Support Price6.0

Research House
TA Target Price6.94 (2011-09-30)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity9.14%
Dividend Yield3.73%
Profit Margin52.76%
Tax Rate22.39%
Asset Turnover0.2015
Net Asset Value Per Share5.18
Net Tangible Asset per share5.09
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.26
Cash Per Share0.87
Liquidity Current Ratio7.8482
Liquidity Quick Ratio7.3582
Liquidity Cash Ratio6.6315
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.1036
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.0939
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale77.6%
Days to sell the inventory40
Days to collect the receivables30
Days to pay the payables66

My notes based on 2012 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- The higher profit than FY11Q1 was mainly due to higher CPO & PK prices as well as higher FFB production

- The higher profit than FY11Q4 was mainly due to higher FFB production

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 0.1426*4*0.9 = 0.5134, estimate PE on current price 6.7 = 12.56 (DPS 0.25)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.1125*4 = 0.45, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.27/12.89 (DPS 0.25)

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