Sponsor by Innity

Sponsor by cwyeoh

Sponsor by Nuffnang

Tuesday, November 22, 2011

KLCI Stock - NESTLE / 4707 - 2011 Quarter 3

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)11,692,170,000 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(49.86-1.75)/1.8764 = 25.64 (High)
Target Price41.28+1.75 = 43.03 (PE 22.0, EPS 1.8764, DPS 1.75)
DecisionNot interested unless stock price sustain and uptrend start above 49
Revenue increased 1.4% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 18.2%, eps increased 3.2% but lower than preceding year correspnding quarter 2.8%, cash generated from operating enough to cover all expenses, slightly stronger liquidity ratio at low level now, lower gearing ratio but still at high level now, all accounting ratio are good, higher inventory can indicate better demand of products, f&b segment revenue and profit increasing, affecting by raw material costs increasing
First Support Price49.0
Second Support Price47.0

Research House
CIMB Target Price38.7 (2011-03-02)
Kenanga Target Price54 (2011-04-21)
TA Target Price45.5 (2011-04-21)
OSK Target Price47.43 (2011-04-26)
Maybank Target Price45 (2011-08-19)
Affin Target Price51.95 (2011-11-08)
MIDF Target Price47.35 (2011-11-08)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity60.15%
Dividend Yield3.41%
Profit Margin11.79%
Tax Rate20.34%
Asset Turnover2.3628
Net Asset Value Per Share2.93
Net Tangible Asset per share2.67
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share18.73
Cash Per Share0.29
Liquidity Current Ratio1.2181
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.6137
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.0884
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio1.7574
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.6373
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale3.7%
Days to sell the inventory43
Days to collect the receivables33
Days to pay the payables68

My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- The good domestic growth performance was noted for all categories and some with double digit especially for Milks, Coffee and Beverage, Confectionery as well as Nestle Liquid Drinks. The encouraging sales were further driven by higher demand during the fasting month, followed by Hari Raya celebrations

- The increase demand for Coffee Creamers and Soluble Coffees within the Asean region contributed to the strong double digit export growth

- Escalating prices of key raw materials consumed by the Group such as coffee beans, cocoa powder, skimmed milk powder and palm oil have negatively impacted the gross profit margin which reduced by 230bps, despite increasing by 10.3% in absolute terms

- Higher pbt driven by the gross profit evolution and higher investments in marketing activities

- Net profit was slightly lower due to the timing of the Halal Tax incentives utilisation

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.4691*4 = 1.8764, estimate PE on current price 49.86 = 25.64(DPS 1.75)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 1.7283*1.2 = 2.074, estimate highest/lowest PE = 22.44/21.82 (DPS 1.65)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 1.6691*0.8 = 1.3353, estimate highest/lowest PE = 36.21/31.94 (DPS 1.65)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.4827*4 = 1.9308, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.05/20.99 (DPS 1.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.4271*4*1.1 = 1.8792, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.15/20.22 (DPS 1.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 1.56+0.1491+0.0357 = 1.7448(0.1491 from adjustment between 2009 Q1 eps and 2010 Q1 eps, 0.0357 from QbQ improvement adjustment), estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.21/18.52 (DPS 1.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 1.56(around 4% from 1.5002), estimate highest/lowest PE = 22.12/20.54 (DPS 1.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 1.4537, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.06/21.12 (DPS 1.3)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 1.4537, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.65/21.78 (DPS 1.3)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 1.5264, estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.42/17.82 (DPS 1.3)

NESTLE latest news (English)

NESTLE Latest news (Chinese)

Cocoa price chart

No comments:

Post a Comment