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Saturday, November 12, 2011

KLCI Stock - NCB / 5509 - 2011 Quarter 3

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)1,777,555,236 (Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(3.78-0.17)/0.2864 = 12.60 (Moderate)
Target Price3.72+0.17 = 3.89 (PE 13.0, EPS 0.2864, DPS 0.17)
DecisionBUY if for dividend keep
Comment
Revenue increased 1.7% and was second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 8.4%, eps increased 73.3% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 1.1%, cash generated from operating not enough to cover dividend expenses hence spent 25.3% of Group cash to cover other expenses , weaker liquidity ratio from very strong to strong level now, slightly higher gearing ratio at low level now, all accounting ratio are good, all division business growth
First Support Price3.74
Second Support Price3.55
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
MIDF Target Price3.75 (2011-02-23)
OSK Target Price3.12 (2011-10-25)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity6.80%
Dividend Yield20.11%
Profit Margin23.15%
Tax Rate27.06%
Asset Turnover0.4792
Net Asset Value Per Share3.56
Net Tangible Asset per share3.12
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.24
Cash Per Share1.39
Liquidity Current Ratio4.7508
Liquidity Quick Ratio4.7063
Liquidity Cash Ratio3.4029
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.1445
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.1261
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale78.4%
Days to sell the inventory4
Days to collect the receivables93
Days to pay the payables88

My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Port operations got an increase of 2.6% against the figure for the same quarter last year. Throughput registered during the third quarter was 807,312 TEUs, a decrease of 5.4% compared to the throughput for the corresponding period last year of 853,804 TEUs. The year-to-date throughput achieved is 2,410,716 TEUs, a decrease of 4.1% compared against 2,513,281 TEUs corresponding period last year

- The increase in revenue of logistics operations was mainly from the expansion of 3rd Party (3PL) business activities

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = (0.0865+0.0499)*2*1.05 = 0.2864, estimate PE on current price 3.78 = 12.6(DPS 0.17)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0668*4*0.95 = 0.2538, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.37/8.83 (DPS 0.76)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0668*4*0.95 = 0.2538, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.97/11.47 (DPS 0.69)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.2922*0.95 = 0.2776(due to unknown reason profit dropped), estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.46/9 (DPS 0.37)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.3408*0.95 = 0.3238, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.33/10.01 (DPS 0.28)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1623*2*1.05 = 0.3408, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.04/9.65 (DPS 0.28)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.3383(add adjustment of 0.0183), estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.4/8.34 (DPS 0.28)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.32(around 7% grow from 0.2999, expect improve in first half quarter, second half remain), estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.84/9.19 (DPS 0.28)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.3124, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.57/8.8 (DPS 0.25)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.2617, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.89/10.2 (DPS 0.25)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.2647, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.96/9.03 (DPS 0.25)

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