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Wednesday, November 2, 2011

KLCI Stock - LPI / 8621 - 2011 Quarter 3

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)2,868,358,780 (Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(12.96-0.7)/0.6948 = 17.65 (Moderate)
Target Price12.51+0.7 = 13.21 (PE 18.0, EPS 0.6948, DPS 0.7)
DecisionBUY if stock price next uptrend start above 12
Comment
Revenue increased 10.5% and was third consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 21.5%, eps increased 43.6% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 21.5%, cash generated from operating not enough to cover financing expenses hence spent 8.1% of Group cash to cover, stronger liquidity ratio at very strong level now, higher gearing ratio at high level now, general insurance revenue and profit increasing
First Support Price12.6
Second Support Price11.7
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
OSK Target Price13.6 (2011-10-07)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity13.89%
Dividend Yield5.40%
Profit Margin23.67%
Tax Rate19.36%
Asset Turnover0.3597
Net Asset Value Per Share4.88
Net Tangible Asset per share4.88
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share2.41
Cash Per Share2.51
Liquidity Current Ratio5.5131
Liquidity Quick Ratio3.6531
Liquidity Cash Ratio2.2488
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio1.2097
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.5474
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale129.7%
Days to sell the inventory329
Days to collect the receivables136
Days to pay the payables77

My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt than FY10Q3 mainly due to higher gross premium underwritten and higher underwriting profit corresponding

- Higher pbt than FY11Q2 mainly due to higher investment income received

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = (0.2048+0.1426)*2 = 0.6948, estimate PE on current price 12.96 = 17.65(DPS 0.7)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = (0.1754+0.1426)*2*1.05 = 0.6678, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.22/16.05 (DPS 0.7)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1754*4*1.1 = 0.7718, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.19/16.65 (DPS 0.55)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.6383*1.1 = 0.7021, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.27/17.73 (DPS 0.55)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1685*4*1.05 = 0.7077, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.57/15.42 (DPS 0.37)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 1.0303(10% grow from 0.9366), estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.46/15.5 (DPS 0.5125)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 1.0303(10% grow from 0.9366), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.15/12.76 (DPS 0.675)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 1.0533(15% grow from 0.9159), estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.94/11.53 (DPS 0.675)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 1.0253, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.23/11.16 (DPS 0.74)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 1.0204, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.43/10.25 (DPS 0.74)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.979, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.88/8.63 (DPS 0.85)

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