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Monday, November 28, 2011

KLCI Stock - CARLSBG / 2836 - 2011 Quarter 3

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)2,230,484,720 (Large)
Par ValueRM 0.50

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(7.24-0.555)/0.5471 = 12.22 (Moderate)
Target Price7.66+0.555 = 8.21 (PE 14.0, EPS 0.5471, DPS 0.555)
DecisionBUY if stock price next uptrend above 6.8 or for dividend keep
Revenue increased 16.3% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 21.9%, eps increased 57.4% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 43.3%, cash generated from operating after deducted receivables increase not enough for dividend payment hence increased borrowings and spent 18.7% of Group cash to cover other expenses as well, slightly stronger liquidity ratio at low level now, slightly higher gearing ratio at moderate level now, all accounting ratio are good, significant receivables increased can indicate good sales of products
First Support Price6.8
Second Support Price6.2

Research House
RHB Target Price7.96 (2011-04-21)
Maybank Target Price8 (2011-09-05)
OSK Target Price8.31 (2011-09-15)
AMMB Target Price8.3 (2011-11-16)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity26.47%
Dividend Yield7.67%
Profit Margin17.16%
Tax Rate28.91%
Asset Turnover1.456
Net Asset Value Per Share1.97
Net Tangible Asset per share0.64
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share11.02
Cash Per Share0.27
Liquidity Current Ratio1.2821
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.1237
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.2465
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.6796
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.4032
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale6.4%
Days to sell the inventory15
Days to collect the receivables72
Days to pay the payables64

My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue was partly attributable to the higher sales arising from successful consumer campaigns undertaken

- Higher pbt was also attributable to lower costs incurred during the quarter as a result of earlier productivity improvements and cost efficiency initiatives in Supply Chain and Sales and Marketing

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.521*1.05 = 0.5471, estimate PE on current price 7.24 = 12.22(DPS 0.555)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.4727*1.05 = 0.4963, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.18/11.32 (DPS 0.58)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = (0.1601+0.0997)*2*1.1 = 0.5716, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.81/10.39 (DPS 0.58)

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