KLCI Stock - CARLSBG / 2836 - 2011 Quarter 3

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	2,230,484,720 (Large)
Par Value	RM 0.50

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(7.24-0.555)/0.5471 = 12.22 (Moderate)
Target Price	7.66+0.555 = 8.21 (PE 14.0, EPS 0.5471, DPS 0.555)
Decision	BUY if stock price next uptrend above 6.8 or for dividend keep
Comment	Revenue increased 16.3% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 21.9%, eps increased 57.4% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 43.3%, cash generated from operating after deducted receivables increase not enough for dividend payment hence increased borrowings and spent 18.7% of Group cash to cover other expenses as well, slightly stronger liquidity ratio at low level now, slightly higher gearing ratio at moderate level now, all accounting ratio are good, significant receivables increased can indicate good sales of products
First Support Price	6.8
Second Support Price	6.2
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

RHB Target Price	7.96 (2011-04-21)
Maybank Target Price	8 (2011-09-05)
OSK Target Price	8.31 (2011-09-15)
AMMB Target Price	8.3 (2011-11-16)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	26.47%
Dividend Yield	7.67%
Profit Margin	17.16%
Tax Rate	28.91%
Asset Turnover	1.456
Net Asset Value Per Share	1.97
Net Tangible Asset per share	0.64
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	11.02
Cash Per Share	0.27
Liquidity Current Ratio	1.2821
Liquidity Quick Ratio	1.1237
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.2465
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.6796
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.4032
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	6.4%
Days to sell the inventory	15
Days to collect the receivables	72
Days to pay the payables	64

My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue was partly attributable to the higher sales arising from successful consumer campaigns undertaken

- Higher pbt was also attributable to lower costs incurred during the quarter as a result of earlier productivity improvements and cost efficiency initiatives in Supply Chain and Sales and Marketing

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.521*1.05 = 0.5471, estimate PE on current price 7.24 = 12.22(DPS 0.555)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.4727*1.05 = 0.4963, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.18/11.32 (DPS 0.58)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = (0.1601+0.0997)*2*1.1 = 0.5716, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.81/10.39 (DPS 0.58)

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