KLCI Stock - GAB / 3255 - 2012 Quarter 1

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	3,208,280,760 (Large)
Par Value	RM 0.50

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(10.62-0.6)/0.6878 = 14.57 (Moderate)
Target Price	11.00+0.6 = 11.60 (PE 16.0, EPS 0.6878, DPS 0.6)
Decision	BUY if stock price sustain and next uptend start above 10.4
Comment	Revenue increased 27.5% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 21.3%, eps increased 89.9% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 42.6%, no cash generated from operating after deducted receivables hence spent 8.8% to cover other expenses, slightly weaker liquidity ratio at high level now, higher gearing ratio at below moderate level now, all accounting ratio are good
First Support Price	10.4
Second Support Price	10.0
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

UOB Target Price	10.3 (2011-02-21)
AMMB Target Price	9.9 (2011-05-06)
TA Target Price	10.3 (2011-05-06)
CIMB Target Price	11.5 (2011-08-05)
Affin Target Price	11.92 (2011-08-08)
Maybank Target Price	11.5 (2011-11-03)
OSK Target Price	14.2 (2011-11-04)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	38.53%
Dividend Yield	5.08%
Profit Margin	16.55%
Tax Rate	25.00%
Asset Turnover	1.9849
Net Asset Value Per Share	1.89
Net Tangible Asset per share	1.86
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	5.77
Cash Per Share	0.54
Liquidity Current Ratio	3.0223
Liquidity Quick Ratio	2.6633
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.8869
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.3803
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.2755
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	23.9%
Days to sell the inventory	19
Days to collect the receivables	76
Days to pay the payables	49

My notes based on 2012 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue as a result of a combination of factors including volume and share gains in the domestic malt liquor market (“MLM”) and timing differences of trade purchases versus prior year, partially off-set by the significant planned reduction of duty-free and export volume and because the first quarter, for seasonal reasons, traditionally has higher sales compared to the fourth quarter

- Higher pbt reflecting revenue growth plus favourable brand and channel mix and good cost control coupled with the non-recurrence of one-off costs incurred in the fourth quarter of the previous year

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 0.655*1.05 = 0.6878, estimate PE on current price 10.62 = 14.57(DPS 0.6)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.6004*1.1 = 0.6604, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.55/13.4 (DPS 0.55)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.6223*1.1 = 0.6845, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.27/13.88 (DPS 0.45)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.6139*0.95 = 0.5832, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.99/14.92 (DPS 0.45)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.545, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.36/15.32 (DPS 0.45)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.5054*1.05 = 0.5307 (5% grow from 0.5054, due to next year no more world cup), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.81/14.23 (DPS 0.45)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.517 (10% grow from 0.47), estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.99/12.55 (DPS 0.41)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.517, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.17/12.13 (DPS 0.41)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.47, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.23/13.17 (DPS 0.41)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.47, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.47/12.9.6 (DPS 0.41)

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