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Monday, November 21, 2011

KLCI Stock - TENAGA / 5347 - 2011 Quarter 4

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)30,175,348,535 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(5.53-0.045)/0.5309 = 10.33 (Moderate)
Target Price6.37+0.045 = 6.42 (PE 12.0, EPS 0.5309, DPS 0.045)
DecisionNot interested unless stock price sustain and next uptrend start above 5.2
Revenue increased 3.5% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 0.6%, eps decreased 169.8% and is second consecutive decreasing and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 139.7%, cash generated from operating is not enough to cover financing activities and some more got large investing expenses, used up 24.9% of Group cash, slightly stronger liquidity ratio at low level now, slightly lower gearing ratio at high level now, all accounting ratio are good, affecting by high coal price, severe gas curtailment and strengthening of USD against Ringgit
First Support Price5.2
Second Support Price5.0
Risk RatingHIGH

Research House
Citi Target Price7.9 (2011-05-31)
MIDF Target Price7.98 (2011-06-21)
Kenanga Target Price7.93 (2011-07-18)
HwangDBS Target Price7.6 (2011-07-22)
RHB Target Price4.74 (2011-10-21)
AMMB Target Price6.4 (2011-10-28)
ECM Target Price6 (2011-10-31)
HLG Target Price5.1 (2011-10-31)
Maybank Target Price5.9 (2011-10-31)
OSK Target Price6.24 (2011-10-31)
CIMB Target Price6.47 (2011-11-01)
ZJ Target Price6.4 (2011-11-04)
Affin Target Price6.7 (2011-11-10)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity1.65%
Dividend Yield0.81%
Profit Margin-7.24%
Tax Rate-
Asset Turnover0.4305
Net Asset Value Per Share5.53
Net Tangible Asset per share5.53
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.06
Cash Per Share0.73
Liquidity Current Ratio1.5114
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.2019
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.4635
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio1.4692
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.5943
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale13.6%
Days to sell the inventory31
Days to collect the receivables69
Days to pay the payables79

My notes based on 2011 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue mainly due to increase in tariff effective 1 June 2011 for Peninsula and 15 July 2011 for SESB and electricity demand grew

- Higher loss mainly due to higher generation costs from utilization of coal, oil and distillate, resulting from severe gas curtailment. The average coal price consumed was USD106.9 as compared to USD88.2 per metric tonne in FY10Q2

- Price moving after 2011 Q4 result announced mainly base on technical analysis and ad-hos news, however if based on average eps of FY11Q1 & FY11Q2 and higher tariff, 4Q eps = 0.4424*1.2 = 0.5309, estimate PE on current price 5.53 = 10.33(DPS 0.195)
- Price moving after 2011 Q3 result announced mainly base on technical analysis and ad-hos news, however if based on average eps of FY11Q1 & FY11Q2, 4Q eps = 0.1229*4*0.9 = 0.4424, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.18/10.61 (DPS 0.195)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.1415+0.163)*2*1.05 = 0.6395, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.96/9.01 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.7355*0.8 = 0.5884, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.74/9.74 (DPS 0.21)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.089*4 = 0.356, estimate highest/lowest PE = 24.21/21.88 (DPS 0.26)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.71*1.05 = 0.7455 (5% increase adjustment), estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.22/11.21 (DPS 0.183)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.2066+0.1859+0.1673+0.1506 = 0.71 (average 10% drop each quarter, coal price increasing but strong Ringgit offset some impact), estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.14/11.01 (DPS 0.183)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.6484, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.38/11.67 (DPS 0.163)

Coal price chart
- http://www.mongabay.com/images/commodities/charts/chart-coalaust.html
- http://www.globalcoal.com/

MYR/JPY chart

TENAGA latest news (English)

TENAGA latest news (Chinese)

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