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Thursday, November 24, 2011

KLCI Stock - HARTA / 5168 - 2012 Quarter 2

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)2,009,293,248 (Large)
Par ValueRM 0.50

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(5.52-0.18)/0.5052 = 10.57 (Moderate)
Target Price6.06+0.18 = 6.24 (PE 12.0, EPS 0.5052, DPS 0.18)
DecisionNot interested unless stock price sustain and next uptrend start above 5.35
Comment
Revenue increased 4.6% and is continuing increasing all the time(higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 24.5%), eps decreased 15.9% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 2.3%, cash generated from operating is more than enough to cover all expenses, slightly weaker liquidity ratio at high level now, slightly higher gearing ratio at below moderate level now, all accounting ratio are good, benefit from strengthening of USD dollar against Ringgit, affect by increase in Nitrile material price
First Support Price5.35
Second Support Price5.0
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
OSK Target Price7.4 (2011-05-11)
Kenanga Target Price6.83 (2011-05-16)
HwangDBS Target Price6.9 (2011-06-16)
CIMB Target Price7.18 (2011-07-07)
RHB Target Price6.06 (2011-09-09)
MIDF Target Price6.36 (2011-09-13)
Maybank Target Price6.8 (2011-11-08)
Affin Target Price7.33 (2011-11-09)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity39.49%
Dividend Yield3.26%
Profit Margin25.94%
Tax Rate22.47%
Asset Turnover1.1622
Net Asset Value Per Share1.52
Net Tangible Asset per share1.52
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share3.59
Cash Per Share0.4
Liquidity Current Ratio3.4296
Liquidity Quick Ratio2.3123
Liquidity Cash Ratio1.4123
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.2848
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.2215
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale30.0%
Days to sell the inventory73
Days to collect the receivables41
Days to pay the payables42

My notes based on 2012 quarter 2 report (number in '000):
- Lower pbt mainly due to increase in raw material prices of both natural and nitrile latex prices and recognition of net unrealised loss in foreign exchange and changes in fair value in forward foreign exchange contracts of RM8,658,000 in the current quarter compared with a net unrealised gain of RM1,586,000 in the corresponding quarter

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = 0.1263*4 = 0.5052, estimate PE on current price 5.52 = 10.57(DPS 0.18)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 0.1501*4 = 0.6004, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.31/8.69 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.1438*4*1.05 = 0.604, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.4/8.05 (DPS 0.14)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.1351*4*1.1 = 0.5944, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.99/8.77 (DPS 0.14)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.1293*4*1.1 = 0.5689, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.86/8.28 (DPS 0.14)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 0.1708*4*1.05 = 0.7174, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.15/8.24 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.1915*4 = 0.766, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.91/9.43 (DPS 0.19)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1535*4 = 0.614, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.65/10.78 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1366*4 = 0.5464, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.95/9.9 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1088*4 = 0.4352, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.59/10.78 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.512, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.55/6.01 (DPS 0.12)

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