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Monday, November 28, 2011

KLCI Stock - AHEALTH / 7090 - 2011 Quarter 3

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)253,972,731 (Small)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(2.71-0.145)/0.294 = 8.72 (High)
Target Price2.50+0.145 = 2.64 (PE 8.5, EPS 0.294, DPS 0.145)
DecisionNot interested unless stock price next uptrend start above 2.8
Revenue increased 3.2% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 12.6%, eps decreased 29.6% and was third consecutive quarter decreasing and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 36.2%, cash generated from operating enough to cover financing expenses but investing expenses used 22.2% of Group cash to cover, stronger liquidity ratio at moderate level now, lower gearing ratio at below moderate level now, all accounting ratio are good, expect lower profit due to ceased of associates company, higher inventory which can indicate still strong demand of products
First Support Price2.7
Second Support Price2.5

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity16.49%
Dividend Yield5.35%
Profit Margin6.67%
Tax Rate24.52%
Asset Turnover1.2389
Net Asset Value Per Share2.03
Net Tangible Asset per share2.02
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.41
Cash Per Share0.19
Liquidity Current Ratio2.8703
Liquidity Quick Ratio2.1818
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.2524
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.4168
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.2803
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale37.6%
Days to sell the inventory64
Days to collect the receivables91
Days to pay the payables88

My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue mainly due to manufacturing unit, Xepa performed well, supported by strong sales in the domestic and Singapore markets, Apex Pharma wholesale, distribution and marketing unit

- The Group‟s own products under the AVEX, AVO, AGNESIA and KAP brands increased market share with a growing number of customers. AGNESIA and KAPS products were exported or the first time to Uganda. Revenue from Singapore operations under Apex Pharma Marketing Pte Ltd grew steadily, supported by newly acquired agencies

- Lower pbt attributed to the Group's decision to seek an exit for its investment in MDK because non-current Assets Held For Sale and Discontinued Operations, the Group re-measured its investment to the lower of carrying amount and fair value less cost to sell resulting in an impairment of RM 2.2 million arising from estimated capital gain tax and transaction costs

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.07*4*1.05 = 0.294, estimate PE on current price 2.71 = 8.72(DPS 0.145)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.38, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.33/6.14 (DPS 0.145)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.095*4 = 0.38, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.21/7.05 (DPS 0.13)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.08*4*1.05 = 0.336(exclude non-recurring income RM10.1 million), estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.54/7.44 (DPS 0.13)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0771*4*1.05 = 0.3238, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.18/7.38 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1334*2*1.1 = 0.2935 (0.1334 is recent 2Q cum_eps, 10% increase), estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.7/7.85 (DPS 0.076)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.32 (add 5% adjustment from 0.3048 due to profit boosted), estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.48/8.41 (DPS 0.0975)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.3048 (10% grow from 0.2771(after deducted 3.4 mil)), estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.74/6.18 (DPS 0.1975)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.2385, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.82/7.26 (DPS 0.0975)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.2365, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.83/6.44 (DPS 0.0975)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.2312, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.64/5.47 (DPS 0.095)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.2168, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.11/4.59 (DPS 0.095)

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