KLCI Stock - CIMB / 1023 - 2011 Quarter 3

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	50,096,901,114 (Very Large)
Par Value	RM 1.00

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(6.74-0.26)/0.4176 = 15.52 (Moderate)
Target Price	6.68+0.26 = 6.94 (PE 16.0, EPS 0.4176, DPS 0.26)
Decision	Not interested unless stock price near or reach SMA point
Comment	Revenue decreased 13.2% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 1.3%, eps increased 4.2% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 4.5%, no cash generated from operating or investing and is over spent and still no cash generate from financing activities, lower revenue is due to lower other income, interest and islamic banking income still high, unusual low allowance of losses on loans, advance & financing, if normal then profit have to deduct another RM160 million
First Support Price	6.6
Second Support Price	6.0
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

Affin Target Price	10 (2011-01-21)
Golman Sachs Target Price	10 (2011-04-18)
Kenanga Target Price	9.1 (2011-08-24)
MIDF Target Price	9 (2011-08-24)
TA Target Price	9.7 (2011-08-24)
HwangDBS Target Price	7.4 (2011-09-08)
OSK Target Price	7.62 (2011-09-30)
AMMB Target Price	8 (2011-10-25)
ECM Target Price	7 (2011-11-16)
HLG Target Price	7.2 (2011-11-16)
Maybank Target Price	6.8 (2011-11-16)
RHB Target Price	5.63 (2011-11-21)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	14.77%
Dividend Yield	2.97%
Profit Margin	42.48%
Tax Rate	21.19%
Asset Turnover	0.0403
Net Asset Value Per Share	3.4
Net Tangible Asset per share	2.08
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	3.41
Cash Per Share	8.08
Liquidity Current Ratio	1.1204
Liquidity Quick Ratio	0.9903
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.2375
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	10.6711
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.9121
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	255.5%
Days to sell the inventory	1768
Days to collect the receivables	5428
Days to pay the payables	13172

My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Better result mainly due to rebound in treasury and investments and higher income from foreign banking, other segments recorded lower income

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.4176*1.05 = 0.4385, estimate PE on current price 6.74 = 15.52(DPS 0.24)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.1305*0.8*4 = 0.4176(reduce 20% non-interest income due to market sluggish), estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.22/15.09 (DPS 0.26)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.1097*4*1.1 = 0.4827(deduct RM160 million losses on loans, advance & financing), estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.29/15.66 (DPS 0.18)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.49*1.05 = 0.5145, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.86/14.69 (DPS 0.26)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1267*4*0.97 = 0.4916, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.29/15.99 (DPS 0.18)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.125*4*1.1 = 0.55, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.42/13.78 (DPS 0.14)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.2366*4*1.1 = 1.041(10% increase quarter-by-quarter), after bonus estimate eps = 1.041/2 = 0.5205, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.19/12.46 (DPS 0.185/2 = 0.0925)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.2268*4*1.1 = 0.9979, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.67/12.5 (DPS 0.185)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.2058*4*1.1 = 0.9055, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.72/13.04 (DPS 0.25)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.1879*4*1.1 = 0.8268, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.59/11.73 (DPS 0.25)

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