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Sunday, November 13, 2011

KLCI Stock - JCY / 5161 - 2011 Quarter 3

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)1,441,626,300 (Large)
Par ValueRM 0.25

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(0.705-0.0075)/0.0268 = 26.03 (High)
Target Price0.32+0.0075 = 0.33 (PE 12.0, EPS 0.0268, DPS 0.0075)
DecisionNot interested unless after FY11Q4 result release stock price still uptrend
Revenue decreased 0.6% and was third consecutive quarter decreasing and also lower than preceding quarter 17.8%, eps decreased 355.7% and also lower than preceding quarter 157.4%, cash generated from operating not enough to cover financing expenses hence spent 39.6% of Group cash to cover other expenses, slightly weaker liquidity ratio at low level now, higher gearing ratio at moderate level now, all accounting ratio are good, lower inventory can indicate demand not yet increase, benefit from strengthening of USD against Ringgit
First Support Price0.6
Second Support Price0.45
Risk RatingHIGH

Research House
UBS Target Price0.7 (2011-05-19)
CIMB Target Price0.58 (2011-08-23)
HLG Target Price0.38 (2011-08-23)
RHB Target Price0.33 (2011-08-23)
OSK Target Price0.305 (2011-09-27)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity-3.98%
Dividend Yield1.06%
Profit Margin-8.05%
Tax Rate-
Asset Turnover1.2949
Net Asset Value Per Share0.42
Net Tangible Asset per share0.42
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.12
Cash Per Share0.04
Liquidity Current Ratio1.2947
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.8474
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.1691
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.5607
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.3593
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale8.0%
Days to sell the inventory44
Days to collect the receivables67
Days to pay the payables49

My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Lower revenue due to the lower average selling price (ASP), lesser volume of shipments and depreciating USD against Ringgit

- Higher loss due to higher raw material prices, inventory provision resulting from depreciating USD and slow moving stocks. In addition, shortage of workforces affected the production output and increased the cost of the direct labour

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0061*1.1*4 = 0.0268, estimate PE on current price 0.705 = 26.03(DPS 0.14)

JCY latest news (English)

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