KLCI Stock - MBMR / 5983 - 2011 Quarter 3

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	755,470,834 (Medium)
Par Value	RM 1.00

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(3.11-0.14)/0.4836 = 6.14 (Moderate)
Target Price	3.87+0.14 = 4.01 (PE 8.0, EPS 0.4836, DPS 0.14)
Decision	BUY if stock volume largely increase or price below 3
Comment	Revenue increased 10.3% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 8.4%, eps increased 67.3% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 2.9%, cash generated from operating not enough to cover financing expenses but cash from borrowings enough to cover all expenses, slightly weaker liquidity ratio at high level now, lower gearing ratio from below moderate to low level now, all accounting ratio are good, higher inventory can indicate better demand of sales, benefit from new launched of Myvi and strengthening of Japan currency
First Support Price	3.0
Second Support Price	2.9
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

HwangDBS Target Price	4.15 (2011-01-10)
Affin Target Price	3.45 (2011-06-03)
MIDF Target Price	3.6 (2011-09-23)
Maybank Target Price	3.1 (2011-10-28)
OSK Target Price	3.35 (2011-11-11)
RHB Target Price	2.7 (2011-11-11)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	10.17%
Dividend Yield	4.50%
Profit Margin	10.35%
Tax Rate	9.75%
Asset Turnover	1.1158
Net Asset Value Per Share	4.4
Net Tangible Asset per share	4.34
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	0.72
Cash Per Share	0.85
Liquidity Current Ratio	3.2052
Liquidity Quick Ratio	2.1126
Liquidity Cash Ratio	1.1827
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.1961
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.1473
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	24.2%
Days to sell the inventory	46
Days to collect the receivables	35
Days to pay the payables	30

My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- The improved performance was a result of recovery in parts supply that had earlier impacted on production from the earthquake in Japan in March 2011

- The new Myvi launched in June 2011 also had a significant impact on lifting sales

- Unfavourable Yen rate movements impacted on results of the associates

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.4606*1.05 = 0.4836, estimate PE on current price 3.11 = 6.14(DPS 0.14)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.2424*2*0.95 = 0.4606, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.64/5.8 (DPS 0.13)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.571, estimate highest/lowest PE = 5.52/4.71 (DPS 0.13)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.1154*4*0.9 = 0.4154, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.73/6.76 (DPS 0.13)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1399*4*0.9 = 0.5036, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.77/5.7 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.5049*0.9 = 0.4544, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.22/6.45 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.4772 (base on year 2008 eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.71/5.53 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0931*4 = 0.3724, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.4/6.69 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0916*4 = 0.3664, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.21/6.39 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0568*4 = 0.2272, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.65/8.98 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0381*4 = 0.1524, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.37/12.6 (DPS 0.18)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.0672*4 = 0.2688, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.59/6.58 (DPS 0.18)

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