This is my analysis to KLSE stock based on each quarter report. Objective of the blog is to provide a platform for easy visualize company previous quarter reports.
Not interested unless got strong buy volume and lower sell volume when stock price below 0.87
Comment
Revenue decreased 1.2% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 1%, eps decreased 59% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 53.2%, no cash generated from operating but still got more than enough borrowings to cover all expenses, slightly better liquidity ratio at low level now, lower gearing ratio at very high level now, receivables and payables ratio still acceptable
First Support Price
0.87
Second Support Price
0.83
Risk Rating
MODERATE
Research House
Kenanga Target Price
1.5 (2011-07-28)
Wilson & York Target Price
1.3 (2011-11-21)
Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity
8.14%
Dividend Yield
2.29%
Profit Margin
1.96%
Tax Rate
71.78%
Asset Turnover
1.5848
Net Asset Value Per Share
1.1
Net Tangible Asset per share
1.1
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share
0.8
Cash Per Share
0.55
Liquidity Current Ratio
1.0336
Liquidity Quick Ratio
1.0131
Liquidity Cash Ratio
0.0948
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio
5.5209
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio
0.8328
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
1.7%
Days to sell the inventory
4
Days to collect the receivables
171
Days to pay the payables
99
Technical Analysis
SMA 20
0.889 (Downtrend 1 day)
SMA 50
0.912 (Downtrend)
SMA 100
0.988 (Downtrend)
SMA 200
1.107 (Downtrend)
MACD
-0.026611 (Uptrend 21 days)
MACD Histogram
0.008891 (Uptrend 19 days)
My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- The improved performance of construction division was mainly attributable to progressive profit recognised from projects secured during the period, which include KLIA 2, KK Times Square and Sabah Administration Centre
- The performance of the polyol division was affected by lack of export market, higher cost of raw materials and intense competition in the local market
- The current value of contract work in progress is approximately RM2.7 billion
- Lower profit mainly due to high tax expenses
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0975*0.95 = 0.0926, estimate PE on current price 0.875 = 9.23(DPS 0.02)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.0356+0.0195)*2 = 0.1102, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.16/7.35 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = (0.028+0.0195)*2 = 0.095, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.43/10.53 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.028*4*1.05 = 0.1176, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.14/9.69 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.1/11.9 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0463*2 = 0.0926, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.15/11.23 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0828(10% grow from 0.0753, added adjustment from last quarter estimated), estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.12/11.59 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0781(10% grow from 0.071), estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.26/9.8 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.078, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.9/8.91 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.06, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.17/11.08 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0484, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.39/15.08 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0465, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.78/14.19 (DPS 0.04)
1.96+0.024 = 1.99 (PE 12.0, EPS 0.1636, DPS 0.024)
Decision
BUY if stock price sustain and uptrend start above 1.3
Comment
Revenue increased 1% and was second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 12%, eps increased 8.2% and was second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 10.5%, cash generated from operating is more than enough to cover all expenses, stronger liquidity ratio at low level now, lower gearing ratio from above moderate to moderate level now, receivables and payables ratio around 6 months still acceptable, no significant increase in inventory or property develpment cost
First Support Price
1.3
Second Support Price
1.2
Risk Rating
MODERATE
Research House
RHB Target Price
1.77 (2011-10-03)
MIDF Target Price
1.5 (2011-11-01)
OSK Target Price
1.61 (2011-11-01)
AMMB Target Price
2.3 (2011-11-22)
HLG Target Price
2.09 (2011-11-23)
Maybank Target Price
2.1 (2011-11-23)
Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity
21.94%
Dividend Yield
1.82%
Profit Margin
20.05%
Tax Rate
25.19%
Asset Turnover
0.8755
Net Asset Value Per Share
0.71
Net Tangible Asset per share
0.71
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share
1.77
Cash Per Share
0.26
Liquidity Current Ratio
1.8511
Liquidity Quick Ratio
1.6952
Liquidity Cash Ratio
0.57
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio
0.68
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio
0.4046
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
37.0%
Days to sell the inventory
30
Days to collect the receivables
179
Days to pay the payables
189
Technical Analysis
SMA 20
1.305 (Uptrend 10 days)
SMA 50
1.307 (Downtrend)
SMA 100
1.335 (Downtrend)
SMA 200
1.498 (Downtrend)
MACD
-0.00939 (Uptrend 23 days)
MACD Histogram
0.006890 (Uptrend 21 days)
My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt mainly due to increased activities in construction segment
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0409*4 = 0.1636, estimate PE on current price 1.32 = 7.92(DPS 0.026)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.0378+0.0319)*2*1.05 = 0.1464, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.15/8.17 (DPS 0.024)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.1533*0.97 = 0.1487, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.73/8.57 (DPS 0.026)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0697*2*1.1 = 0.1533, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.49/11.05 (DPS 0.026)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0574*2*1.1 = 0.1263, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.08/11.99 (DPS 0.026)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1025*1.1 = 0.1128, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.95/11.49 (DPS 0.024)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1025*1.1 = 0.1128, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.88/11.05 (DPS 0.024)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0281*4 = 0.1124, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.96/8.75 (DPS 0.016)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0233*4 = 0.0932, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.13/9.7 (DPS 0.016)
Revenue decreased 9.3% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 6.2%, eps decreased 25.4% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 26.1%, cash generated from operating more than enough to cover all expenses, weaker liquidity ratio at low level now, lower gearing ratio at above moderate level now, all accounting ratio are good, benefit from latex price decreasing and strengthening of USD VS RM but affect by increasing of nitrile price
First Support Price
1.8
Second Support Price
1.6
Risk Rating
MODERATE
Research House
CIMB Target Price
2.05 (2011-11-22)
Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity
20.18%
Dividend Yield
2.63%
Profit Margin
11.60%
Tax Rate
9.91%
Asset Turnover
0.972
Net Asset Value Per Share
1.08
Net Tangible Asset per share
1.0
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share
1.87
Cash Per Share
0.26
Liquidity Current Ratio
1.6173
Liquidity Quick Ratio
1.1311
Liquidity Cash Ratio
0.492
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio
0.7203
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio
0.4187
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
17.8%
Days to sell the inventory
61
Days to collect the receivables
67
Days to pay the payables
83
Technical Analysis
SMA 20
1.899 (Downtrend 2 days)
SMA 50
1.839 (Uptrend)
SMA 100
1.669 (Downtrend)
SMA 200
2.026 (Downtrend)
MACD
0.060509 (Downtrend 2 days)
MACD Histogram
-0.008531 (Downtrend 12 days)
My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- The decrease in the Group's revenue and the net profit was mainly due to the persistently high raw material prices and the weaker foreign exchange rate of USD
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0502*4*1.3 = 0.261, estimate PE on current price 1.9 = 7.11(DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.0483+0.0673)*2*1.05 = 0.2428, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.53/4.61 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0483*4*1.1 = 0.2125, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.86/7.18 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.2751*0.95 = 0.2613, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.62/8.78 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.3043*0.95 = 0.289, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.91/8.15 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0824*4 = 0.3296+0.012(QbQ improvement adjustment) = 0.3416, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.47/6.72 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0792*4 = 0.3168+0.02(QbQ improvement adjustment) = 0.3368, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.46/9.62 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0675*4 = 0.27+0.02(QbQ improvement adjustment) = 0.29, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.62/12.14 (DPS 0.02)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0566*4 = 0.2264, estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.78/10.42 (DPS 0.02)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0586*4 = 0.2344, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.99/7.81 (DPS 0.02)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.047*4 = 0.188, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.37/4.2 (DPS 0.02)
Daya Materials Berhad (DMB) is a Malaysia-based company engaged in investment holding and provision of management services to its subsidiaries. Through its subsidiaries, DMB operates in four segments: polymer; oil and gas; technical services, and others. Its oil and gas segment includes logistics and distribution of downstream chemicals, material handling and manpower services, pipeline services, and mechanical and electrical services. DMB markets and sells polymer products under the brand name of DAYACOM, which include semiconductor compounds, medium-voltage cross-linked polyethylene (XLPE) compounds, low-voltage XLPE compounds and jacketing compounds. Its technical services segment provides the design, engineering and industrial construction services, as well as tank cleaning, repair and waste oil/solvent recycling services. On July 14, 2010, DMB, through its wholly owned subsidiary, DMB incorporated a limited liability company under the name of PT. Daya Secadyme Indonesia.
0.23+0.0024 = 0.23 (PE 12.0, EPS 0.0189, DPS 0.0024)
Decision
BUY if stock price sustain above 0.185
Comment
Revenue decreased 8.6% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 42.9%, eps increased 9.8% and was second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 9.8%, cash generated from operating and financing more than enough to cover all expenses, weaker liquidity ratio at low level now, lower gearing ratio at moderate level now, all accounting ratio are good, better result from main profit contribution segment O&G
First Support Price
0.18
Second Support Price
0.15
Risk Rating
MODERATE
Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity
9.16%
Dividend Yield
1.26%
Profit Margin
12.39%
Tax Rate
31.88%
Asset Turnover
0.6957
Net Asset Value Per Share
0.17
Net Tangible Asset per share
0.1
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share
1.9
Cash Per Share
0.05
Liquidity Current Ratio
1.8851
Liquidity Quick Ratio
1.6991
Liquidity Cash Ratio
0.7979
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio
0.6127
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio
0.3791
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
30.4%
Days to sell the inventory
26
Days to collect the receivables
85
Days to pay the payables
93
Technical Analysis
SMA 20
0.19 (Downtrend 13 days)
SMA 50
0.19 (Same)
SMA 100
0.183 (Same)
SMA 200
0.202 (Same)
MACD
0.000497 (Uptrend 1 day)
MACD Histogram
-0.001462 (Downtrend 11 days)
My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt than FY10Q3 mainly due to the increase in revenue from oil & gas and technical services segments and higher profits and margin from oil & gas segments with recovery of crane services business and higher chemical sales
- Lower revenue than FY11Q2 mainly attributed to the lower contribution from its technical services segment however higher profit due to reason mention above
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0045*4*1.05 = 0.0189, estimate PE on current price 0.19 = 9.93(DPS 0.0024)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0041*4 = 0.0164, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.27/9 (DPS 0.0024)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0216*0.9 = 0.0194, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.99/8.12 (DPS 0.0024)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0049*4*1.1 = 0.0216, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.16/9.61 (DPS 0.0024)
Financial assets at fair value through profit and loss (A-1)
Fixed deposits with licensed banks (A-1)
Inventories (A-1)
Marketable securities (A-1)
Other assets (A-1)
Other investments (A-1)
Other receivables (A-1)
Trade receivables (A-1)
Deferred tax liabilities (L-0)
Hire purchase liabilities (L-0)
Loans & borrowings (L-0)
Long term payables (L-0)
Redeemable secured loan stocks (L-0)
Term loans (L-0)
Current tax liabilities (L-1)
Hire purchase liabilities (L-1)
Loans & borrowings (L-1)
Other payables (L-1)
Provision for liabilities (L-1)
Trade and other payables (L-1)
Minority interest (M-1)
2011
3
-
-
83491
-
893
1214
-
95872
1750
-
63373
4610
-
173
-
14817
-
13219
-
17565
36370
996
-
42745
3000
-
-
3899
-
21266
43587
1358
9528
703
2011
2
-
-
83491
-
811
1218
-
91110
1544
-
48099
5330
-
194
-
13585
-
8168
-
33443
48844
917
-
46023
3000
-
-
4788
-
27779
29225
1400
16696
663
2011
1
-
-
83491
-
811
1222
-
91796
1677
-
38324
5324
-
191
-
13324
-
8483
-
14295
44502
916
-
50528
3000
-
-
4093
-
20451
23441
2696
14360
641
2010
4
-
-
83491
-
1061
1225
-
90866
1809
-
34153
3562
-
159
-
13428
-
5040
-
9614
47641
1086
-
53947
5000
-
-
2393
-
14568
25206
2321
10372
745
2010
3
-
-
83497
-
892
1229
7842
82551
-
-
19107
3829
-
2918
19645
12516
-
-
-
10764
33219
2050
-
41670
5000
13336
-
4148
-
13645
25289
-
9326
743
2010
2
-
-
84686
-
750
1238
5514
80055
-
-
16745
3369
-
11496
17940
10837
-
-
-
11858
37789
2032
-
42710
5000
13413
-
3059
-
18758
27027
-
8986
817
2010
1
-
-
62118
-
-
303
5535
60471
-
-
14358
3152
-
6542
15679
11091
-
-
-
-
42132
2044
-
15944
-
16361
-
1844
-
8152
-
-
31119
689
2009
4
-
-
61521
-
-
304
4741
55483
-
-
12532
1944
-
24039
15610
11507
-
-
-
10351
25030
2030
-
15971
-
16419
-
1457
-
7048
25273
-
11383
681
2009
3
78
-
61460
-
-
305
4760
56853
-
-
17243
2523
-
-
13243
27942
152
-
39
8109
26602
1829
2430
16979
-
-
-
1637
544
5634
36490
-
16021
678
2009
2
96
-
61460
-
-
306
4779
55740
-
-
26592
2957
-
-
16606
19437
409
-
3455
5237
31314
1829
2341
16750
-
-
-
1496
854
9991
45598
-
14259
886
2009
1
114
-
58839
5636
-
307
3959
30308
-
-
12238
2230
-
-
19509
26096
468
-
202
8516
35400
899
742
-
4800
-
14095
2500
488
5719
41461
-
11970
688
2008
4
132
-
58839
5609
-
308
3974
27478
-
-
9122
1341
-
-
34849
27613
306
-
2159
9037
23505
899
746
14837
4800
-
-
1529
535
11550
43629
-
12354
669
2008
3
150
-
58660
5589
-
-
1251
29816
-
-
25906
1278
-
-
18417
33714
366
-
1003
3077
27357
881
502
2726
-
-
-
1464
428
6915
62508
-
17697
639
2008
2
168
-
48325
7930
-
-
1257
20687
-
3076
14883
1818
-
-
40
24677
1041
-
2808
5574
13360
786
258
-
-
-
271
2952
246
6437
19389
-
4620
60
2008
1
186
-
48325
7730
-
-
1262
14402
-
174
8107
1777
-
-
40
13543
1065
-
7780
4340
22773
786
304
-
-
-
310
1912
286
2848
4320
-
16630
17
2007
4
204
-
48199
7644
-
-
1268
14095
-
157
3050
720
-
-
2301
9668
463
-
11511
5090
9388
786
355
-
1200
-
349
138
323
734
5260
-
3326
17
2007
3
222
1069
16578
-
-
-
-
14189
-
-
8143
1099
31
-
21
9501
1359
-
14342
4001
10312
679
544
-
-
-
387
1079
193
3328
2672
-
4082
12
2007
2
240
1069
-
-
-
-
-
11711
-
-
2809
1594
31
-
37
4685
953
-
8340
1856
6999
667
323
-
-
-
426
1319
173
348
772
-
1375
-
2007
1
258
1032
-
-
-
-
-
10773
-
-
2783
1312
45
-
37
4299
535
-
9465
1562
10118
667
-
-
-
-
465
1250
-
2660
772
-
2446
-
2006
4
276
-
-
-
-
-
-
11962
-
-
1924
-
-
-
37
3570
181
-
9359
3205
9219
667
-
-
-
-
504
108
-
3538
903
-
1436
-
Financial Quarter Income Statement
year
qrt
Revenue
Income tax expense
Cost of sales
Finance/interest costs
Other income
Administrative/Operating expenses
Minority interest
Share of profit/ (loss) of associates
After tax effect
Share of net profit of jointly controlled entity
2011
3
64353
2542
52857
975
1412
5046
40
-
7
1079
2011
2
70413
1990
58328
1082
1271
5530
22
-
58
-
2011
1
50646
1040
43731
954
1880
4111
2
-
29
-
2010
4
46491
1075
30634
1003
471
9226
2
-
0
169
2010
3
45040
3019
31366
993
575
5981
16
-
0
142
2010
2
52406
1735
41938
530
910
4683
32
-
117
-
2010
1
35420
998
27735
470
599
4455
8
-
53
-
2009
4
62601
1728
48730
502
1202
10564
127
0
-
-
2009
3
42621
2200
31527
360
769
5148
7
0
-
-
2009
2
45500
1538
35976
356
337
3994
28
89
-
-
2009
1
37522
1247
29863
316
134
3089
20
27
-
-
2008
4
71042
1802
64022
181
166
5013
15
12
-
-
2008
3
69593
804
62668
229
3178
-
36
229
-
-
2008
2
56101
2445
42870
179
141
4438
43
267
-
-
2008
1
27609
1085
22052
154
85
1777
63
132
-
-
2007
4
15424
806
11790
92
504
2101
5
637
-
-
2007
3
29362
699
23228
91
2618
-
8
-
-
-
2007
2
7316
68
5890
29
148
515
-
-
-
-
2007
1
10156
143
8034
41
162
723
-
-
-
-
2006
4
8043
685
6548
29
221
706
-
-
-
-
Financial Quarter Segments Revenue
year
qrt
Others
Oil & Gas
Polymer
Technical Services
2011
3
-
27199
4418
32771
2011
2
-
21327
4703
44383
2011
1
-
10437
5705
34504
2010
4
-
11713
4082
30696
2010
3
1
18748
7801
18489
2010
2
-
12154
8639
31612
2010
1
-
8840
10110
16470
2009
4
32454
22333
7887
-
2009
3
22978
14943
4700
-
2009
2
19196
18528
7776
-
2009
1
20546
10435
6541
-
2008
4
60476
3560
6774
-
2008
3
43480
16104
10009
-
2008
2
401
47648
8052
-
2008
1
174
17760
9675
-
2007
4
202
5040
10366
-
2007
3
-
19326
27508
-
Financial Quarter Segments Profit
year
qrt
Others
Oil & Gas
Polymer
Technical Services
2011
3
196
6765
258
165
2011
2
108
5080
321
753
2011
1
68
2499
778
1285
2010
4
294
3339
126
4177
2010
3
286
7068
534
2807
2010
2
184
3730
789
2418
2010
1
318
1762
1604
666
2009
4
4369
1194
425
-
2009
3
4918
1653
121
-
2009
2
665
4329
427
-
2009
1
888
3434
4
-
2008
4
3132
792
97
-
2008
3
2280
65
800
-
2008
2
-
7098
216
-
2008
1
-
2135
943
-
2007
4
329
1053
1046
-
2007
3
-
1978
2852
-
Short form reference a_date = announcement date, yr = financial year end, qrt = quarter h_price = stock highest price during the quarter, l_price = stock lowest price during the quarter div = dividend recommend or declare in the quarter, roe = return on equity c_roe = cumulative of return on equity during the financial year rev = revenue in the current quarter, c_rev = cumulative of revenue during the financial year pbt = profit before tax in the current quarter, c_pbt = cumulative of profit before tax during the financial year eps = earnings per share in the current quarter, c_eps = cumulative of earnings per share during the financial year asset = total asset, liab = total liability, mino = minority interest, equi = total equity cfo = net cash flow from operating activities, cfi = net cash flow from investing activities cff = net cash flow from financing activities, cash = cash and cash equivalents as at beginning of financial year final = cash and cash equivalents as at current financial period ended share = diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares c_share = cumulative of diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares during the financial year m_cap = market capital at announcement date of quarterly report, date = current financial period ended date prof_m = profit margin, vat = income tax rate, pe = price earning per share ratio of recent four quarter navps = net asset value per share, ntaps = net tangible asset per share, cps = cash per share l_cur = liquidity current ratio, l_qui = liquidity quick ratio, l_cash = liquidity cash ratio g_de = gearing debt to equity ratio, g_da = gearing debt to assets ratio avg_w = working capital per thousand Ringgit sale inv_d = days to sell the inventory, rec_d = days to collect the receivables pay_d = days to pay the payables
Revenue decreased 1.6% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 44.6%, eps decreased 34.7% and was third consecutive quarter decreasing but still higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 30.8%, cash generated from operating not enough for financing expenses hence increased borrowings to cover other expenses and still got extra, weaker liquidity ratio at weak level now, slightly lower gearing ratio at high level now, all accounting ratio are good, CPO price in uptrend
First Support Price
5.5
Second Support Price
5.2
Risk Rating
MODERATE
Research House
CIMB Target Price
2.79 (2011-11-22)
ECM Target Price
6.41 (2011-11-22)
AMMB Target Price
4.3 (2011-12-19)
HLG Target Price
6.5 (2011-12-19)
HwangDBS Target Price
6.8 (2011-12-19)
TA Target Price
6.21 (2011-12-21)
Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity
12.85%
Dividend Yield
5.53%
Profit Margin
7.63%
Tax Rate
13.64%
Asset Turnover
0.6691
Net Asset Value Per Share
4.63
Net Tangible Asset per share
2.86
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share
1.86
Cash Per Share
0.62
Liquidity Current Ratio
0.6149
Liquidity Quick Ratio
0.5024
Liquidity Cash Ratio
0.1095
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio
1.4952
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio
0.5667
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
-26.5%
Days to sell the inventory
31
Days to collect the receivables
99
Days to pay the payables
87
Technical Analysis
SMA 20
5.438 (Uptrend 18 days)
SMA 50
5.318 (Uptrend)
SMA 100
5.187 (Uptrend)
SMA 200
5.357 (Uptrend)
MACD
0.124877 (Uptrend 8 days)
MACD Histogram
0.051948 (Uptrend 53 days)
My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt than FY10Q3 due to higher sales volume for the Manufacturing & Trading Division, while the Plantation Division's revenue had also increased by 26% mainly on stronger palm product prices and consolidation of Pharmaniaga in Pharmaceutical Division
- Lower revenue and pbt in Heavy division than FY10Q3 due to the work on the second generation patrol vessels remained at the preliminary stage, higher interest expense and cost escalations in completing certain commercial shipbuilding projects
- Lower pbt than FY11Q2 due to previous quarter had included a RM94.6 million gain from the disposal of plantation assets
- Plantation Division’s pre-tax profit was better than FY11Q2 was boosted by RM14 million dividend income from Boustead REIT, while the 5% increase in FFB crop helped to cushion against a 5% decline in CPO price
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.1286*4*1.05 = 0.5401, estimate PE on current price 5.79 = 10.13(DPS 0.32)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.1+0.12)*2 = 0.44, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.11/9.48 (DPS 0.32)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.5557, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.94/8.53 (DPS 0.42)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.2646*2*1.05 = 0.5557(exclude RM52 million one off gained), estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.08/8.8 (DPS 0.39)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1*4*1.1 = 0.44, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.11/11.14 (DPS 0.37)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.08*4*1.05 = 0.336(0.08 is eps exclude non-repeatable income), estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.04/11.59 (DPS 0.325)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.4699*1.05 = 0.4934(5% increase), estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.3/6.58 (DPS 0.275)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.4934, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.1/6.31 (DPS 0.275)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.1241*4 = 0.4964, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.89/6.06 (DPS 0.25)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0721*4 = 0.2884, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.17/10.92 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0934*4 = 0.3736, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.78/8.94 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.1699*4 = 0.6796, estimate highest/lowest PE = 5.15/3.97 (DPS 0.3)
2.28+0.076 = 2.35 (PE 12.0, EPS 0.1896, DPS 0.076)
Decision
BUY if macd back to uptrend
Comment
Revenue increased 1.1% and was fourth consecutive quarter increasing (higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 48.4%), eps decreased 1% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 39.8%, no cash generated from operating after changed of assets & liabilities but cash generate from financing still more than enough to cover all expenses, stronger liquidity ratio from moderate to high level now, lower gearing ratio at high level now, all accounting ratio improved but inventory still at very high level, plastics division profit decreasing, property division revenue continue increasing
First Support Price
1.68
Second Support Price
1.5
Risk Rating
MODERATE
Research House
Nomura Target Price
3.08 (2011-02-10)
TA Target Price
3.32 (2011-04-15)
UOB Target Price
2.44 (2011-08-03)
Kenanga Target Price
2.87 (2011-08-18)
OSK Target Price
3.01 (2011-08-18)
CIMB Target Price
2.64 (2011-10-06)
MIDF Target Price
1.71 (2011-10-06)
RHB Target Price
1.55 (2011-10-06)
Maybank Target Price
1.76 (2011-11-22)
HLG Target Price
2.37 (2011-12-14)
Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity
15.53%
Dividend Yield
4.52%
Profit Margin
14.55%
Tax Rate
28.97%
Asset Turnover
0.5461
Net Asset Value Per Share
1.21
Net Tangible Asset per share
1.21
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share
1.6
Cash Per Share
0.69
Liquidity Current Ratio
3.8813
Liquidity Quick Ratio
1.4399
Liquidity Cash Ratio
0.9454
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio
1.5562
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio
0.6052
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
125.8%
Days to sell the inventory
485
Days to collect the receivables
78
Days to pay the payables
172
Technical Analysis
SMA 20
1.816 (Downtrend 17 days)
SMA 50
1.897 (Downtrend)
SMA 100
1.997 (Downtrend)
SMA 200
2.231 (Downtrend)
MACD
-0.078268 (Downtrend 20 days)
MACD Histogram
-0.026698 (Downtrend 11 days)
My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Unbilled locked in sales and remaining GDV is estimated at more than RM15 billion
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0499*4*0.95 = 0.1896, estimate PE on current price 1.68 = 8.46(DPS 0.076)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0504*4 = 0.2016, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.12/7.01 (DPS 0.076)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0485*4 = 0.194, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.47/10.64 (DPS 0.076)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0376*4*1.1 = 0.1654, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.05/13.2 (DPS 0.076)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0357*4*1.1 = 0.1571, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.6/10.85 (DPS 0.065)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0355*4*1.1 = 0.1562, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.45/10.47 (DPS 0.065)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.034*4*1.1 = 0.1496, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.13/9.99 (DPS 0.065)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0388*4 = 0.1552, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.6/10.53 (DPS 0.065)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0373*4 = 0.1492, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.73/10.72 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0366*4 = 0.1464, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.66/11.61 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.036*4 = 0.144, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.68/11.39 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.0271*4 = 0.1084, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.33/13.28 (DPS 0.08)
