KLCI Stock - IOICORP / 1961 - 2011 Quarter 4

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	29,668,361,622 (Very Large)
Par Value	RM 0.10

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(4.62-0.18)/0.3 = 14.80 (Moderate)
Target Price	4.80+0.18 = 4.98 (PE 16.0, EPS 0.3, DPS 0.18)
Decision	BUY if stock price sustain above 4.6
Comment	Revenue decreased 0.4% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 41.3%, eps decreased 16.1% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 1.4%, cash generated from operating not enough to cover financing activities hence increased borrowing and spent 28.9% of Group cash to cover other expenses, weaker liquidity ratio from strong to high level now, higher gearing ratio at moderate level now, all accounting ratio are good, CPO price got uptrend signal since 09 Aug @ RM2920
First Support Price	4.6
Second Support Price	4.4
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

OSK Target Price	4.39 (2011-05-18)
Maybank Target Price	5.5 (2011-06-16)
MIDF Target Price	5.89 (2011-06-27)
CIMB Target Price	5.48 (2011-07-18)
Kenanga Target Price	5.52 (2011-07-29)
RHB Target Price	5.3 (2011-07-29)
TA Target Price	6.11 (2011-07-29)
ECM Target Price	6.11 (2011-08-25)
HLG Target Price	5.27 (2011-08-25)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	17.69%
Dividend Yield	3.68%
Profit Margin	16.50%
Tax Rate	24.94%
Asset Turnover	0.8219
Net Asset Value Per Share	1.85
Net Tangible Asset per share	1.77
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	2.64
Cash Per Share	0.44
Liquidity Current Ratio	3.3667
Liquidity Quick Ratio	2.1047
Liquidity Cash Ratio	1.246
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.6162
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.3762
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	33.5%
Days to sell the inventory	79
Days to collect the receivables	40
Days to pay the payables	38

My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- The higher profit is due mainly to higher profit contribution from the plantation segment, as well as increased contribution from associates as compared to Q4 FY2010

- The plantation segment reported a 68% increase in operating profit due to higher CPO and PK prices and also higher FFB production. Average CPO price realised for Q4 FY2011 was RM3,385/MT

- The lower profit of resource-based manufacturing segment is mainly due to lower sales as well as lower margins from oleochemicals and refineries

- The higher profit reported in property segment is mainly due to higher fair value gain from investment properties in Q4 FY2011 which amounted to RM93.0 million

- The resource-based manufacturing segment reported a fair value gain of RM3.7 million on outstanding derivative contracts in Q4 FY2011, 96% lower than the fair value gain of RM99.0 million recognised in Q3 FY2011

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = (0.08+0.07)*2 = 0.3(exclude RM99 million fair value gain), estimate PE on current price 4.62 = 14.8(DPS 0.18)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.08*4*1.1 = 0.352(exclude RM126.1 million non-repeatable/other income), estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.8/11.7 (DPS 0.18)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.1472*2 = 0.2944, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.06/16.98 (DPS 0.18)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.09*4 = 0.36, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.64/14.64 (DPS 0.17)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0828*4*1.05 = 0.3478, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.79/14.32 (DPS 0.17)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0692*1.1*4 = 0.3045, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.34/15.04 (DPS 0.09)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0729*4 = 0.2916, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.31/17.46 (DPS 0.09)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0737*4 = 0.2948, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.86/16.72 (DPS 0.07)

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