This is my analysis to KLSE stock based on each quarter report. Objective of the blog is to provide a platform for easy visualize company previous quarter reports.
BUY if stock price near to SMA20 and buying volume is stronger than selling
Comment
Revenue decreased 3.9% and was fifth consecutive quarter decreasing (lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 30%), eps increased 31.9% but lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 29.3%, cash generated from operating not enough cover all financing expenses hence generated some cash from financing activity but still negative cash flow, lower liquidity ratio at moderate level now, lower gearing ratio at moderate level now, lower property development cost can indicate reduced of property development, lower inventory can indicate reduced construction works
First Support Price
0.5
Second Support Price
0.48
Risk Rating
MODERATE
Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity
11.72%
Dividend Yield
23.08%
Profit Margin
30.35%
Tax Rate
36.26%
Asset Turnover
0.5701
Net Asset Value Per Share
0.83
Net Tangible Asset per share
0.82
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share
0.57
Cash Per Share
0.01
Liquidity Current Ratio
2.3231
Liquidity Quick Ratio
0.8632
Liquidity Cash Ratio
0.0209
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio
0.5027
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio
0.3188
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
57.4%
Days to sell the inventory
290
Days to collect the receivables
128
Days to pay the payables
150
Technical Analysis
SMA 20
0.488 (Uptrend 13 days)
SMA 50
0.482 (Uptrend)
SMA 100
0.471 (Same)
SMA 200
0.562 (Downtrend)
MACD
0.004959 (Uptrend 4 days)
MACD Histogram
0.004779 (Uptrend 18 days)
My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Lower revenue mainly derived from the Group property development and construction division
- Higher pbt mainly due to improved profit margin derived from both construction and property development division
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = (0.021+0.0285)*2*0.9 = 0.0891, estimate PE on current price 0.52 = 5.5(DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.021*4*0.8 = 0.0672, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.66/4.99 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = (0.0796+0.0812)*2*1.1 = 0.3538, estimate PE on current price 2.43 = 6.53(DPS 0.12), after split & bonus & free warrants then eps = 0.1049, price = 0.81, PE = 7.34(DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.36(due to receivables increased), estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.69/4.94 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.28, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.43/3.75 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.2*0.7*2 = 0.28, estimate highest/lowest PE = 3.25/3 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.12(average of 0.03 per quarter), estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.5/7.5 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.08(average of 0.02 per quarter if no new big project secure for construction division), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.13/7.63 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.08, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9/7
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.08, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.88/6.63
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.08, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.44/5.38
BUY if Bolinger upper band open and stock price uptrend
Comment
Revenue increased 6.2% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 39.7%, eps decreased 35.5% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 36.5%, cash generated from operating not enough to fully cover financing expenses hence still generated cash from financing activities to cover other expenses, stronger liquidity ratio at moderate level now, higher gearing ratio at high level now, benefit from CPO price above 3.1k, high inventory and property development cost can indicate segment performance can maintain
First Support Price
5.4
Second Support Price
5.2
Risk Rating
MODERATE
Research House
TA Target Price
6.35 (2011-01-03)
MIDF Target Price
6.48 (2011-02-24)
Credit Suisse Target Price
8 (2011-03-29)
OSK Target Price
6.96 (2011-05-30)
CIMB Target Price
7.81 (2011-07-05)
UOB Target Price
6.3 (2011-08-15)
AMMB Target Price
7.71 (2011-09-12)
HwangDBS Target Price
8.7 (2011-09-14)
ECM Target Price
7.02 (2011-11-29)
HLG Target Price
5.76 (2011-11-29)
Maybank Target Price
6.2 (2011-11-29)
RHB Target Price
4.48 (2012-01-18)
Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity
4.52%
Dividend Yield
1.93%
Profit Margin
14.71%
Tax Rate
31.13%
Asset Turnover
0.3047
Net Asset Value Per Share
3.71
Net Tangible Asset per share
3.65
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share
1.53
Cash Per Share
1.63
Liquidity Current Ratio
2.6405
Liquidity Quick Ratio
1.7359
Liquidity Cash Ratio
0.9272
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio
1.2876
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio
0.498
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
99.3%
Days to sell the inventory
240
Days to collect the receivables
170
Days to pay the payables
166
Technical Analysis
SMA 20
5.512 (Uptrend 1 day)
SMA 50
5.563 (Downtrend)
SMA 100
5.449 (Downtrend)
SMA 200
5.799 (Downtrend)
MACD
-0.012606 (Uptrend 1 day)
MACD Histogram
0.002569 (Uptrend 1 day)
My notes based on 2012 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue due to higher revenue from plantation and property division
- Lower pbt due to unrealised foreign exchange losses on US Dollar denominated borrowings in Infrastructure division of RM32 million
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = 0.0825*4 = 0.33, estimate PE on current price 5.7 = 16.94(DPS 0.11)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 0.0825*4*0.95 = 0.3135, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.3/11.96 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.1819*2*1.1 = 0.4002, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.07/13.17 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0765*4*1.1 = 0.3366, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.93/16.87 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0765*4*1.1 = 0.3366, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.93/15.92 (DPS 0.11)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0662*4*1.05 = 0.278, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.36/17.3 (DPS 0.11)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.2484*0.9 = 0.2236 (10% drop, exclude foreign exchange gained), estimate highest/lowest PE = 22.58/19.5 (DPS 0.11)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0621*4 = 0.2484 (expecting revenue and profit recover hence no decrease on eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.53/17.43 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.2556, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.13/16.55 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.271, estimate highest/lowest PE = 25.13/15.68 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.3251, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.53/16.15 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.2612, estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.06/12.44 (DPS 0.25)
Revenue decreased 8% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 11.9%, eps increased 42.5% and was second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 94%, cash generated from operating and investing enough to cover all expenses, stronger liquidity ratio from low to moderate level now, lower gearing ratio at low level now, payables ratio is high, benefit from lower wayleave fees
First Support Price
0.68
Second Support Price
0.62
Risk Rating
MODERATE
Research House
Macquarie Target Price
0.94 (2011-02-14)
OSK Target Price
0.7 (2012-01-05)
HLG Target Price
0.85 (2012-01-13)
Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity
9.69%
Dividend Yield
-
Profit Margin
54.49%
Tax Rate
2.96%
Asset Turnover
0.1889
Net Asset Value Per Share
0.59
Net Tangible Asset per share
0.59
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share
1.09
Cash Per Share
0.09
Liquidity Current Ratio
2.1411
Liquidity Quick Ratio
2.1411
Liquidity Cash Ratio
1.3153
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio
0.1142
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio
0.1025
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
61.3%
Days to sell the inventory
-
Days to collect the receivables
161
Days to pay the payables
313
Technical Analysis
SMA 20
0.704 (Downtrend 13 days)
SMA 50
0.694 (Same)
SMA 100
0.623 (Uptrend)
SMA 200
0.694 (Downtrend)
MACD
0.014002 (Downtrend 16 days)
MACD Histogram
-0.008553 (Downtrend 15 days)
My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Lower revenue than FY11Q2 is due to one-off global bandwidth sales entered into in the corresponding quarter
- Higher pbt mainly due to increase in non-global bandwidth sales, adjustments to lower operating expenses (one-time reduction of RM19.7 million and RM8.4 million 2011's wayleave fee)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0426, estimate PE on current price 0.685 = 16.08
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.009+0.0113)*2*1.05 = 0.0426, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.31/9.74
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.009*4*1.05 = 0.0378, estimate highest/lowest PE = 22.22/14.02
Revenue decreased 15.3% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 27.5%, eps decreased 18.2% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 64.1%, cash generated from operating enough to cover financing expenses but still spent 7.4% of Group cash to cover investing expenses, slightly weaker liquidity ratio at low level now, lower gearing ratio at above moderate level now, all accounting ratio are good, most segment revenue lower than preceding quarter, CPO price uptrend at above 3.1k
First Support Price
9.0
Second Support Price
8.5
Risk Rating
MODERATE
Research House
AMMB Target Price
10.6 (2011-04-26)
CIMB Target Price
10.9 (2011-05-27)
OSK Target Price
8.47 (2011-05-30)
Credit Suisse Target Price
8 (2011-06-21)
Kenanga Target Price
11.06 (2011-07-26)
Affin Target Price
11.09 (2011-08-10)
HwangDBS Target Price
10.4 (2011-08-11)
UOB Target Price
10.4 (2011-09-21)
ECM Target Price
9.16 (2011-11-29)
HLG Target Price
9.08 (2011-11-29)
Maybank Target Price
8.5 (2011-12-15)
TA Target Price
10.1 (2012-01-04)
MIDF Target Price
11 (2012-01-10)
RHB Target Price
10.65 (2012-01-12)
Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity
16.83%
Dividend Yield
2.43%
Profit Margin
13.11%
Tax Rate
24.56%
Asset Turnover
1.0267
Net Asset Value Per Share
4.17
Net Tangible Asset per share
4.16
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share
2.13
Cash Per Share
0.87
Liquidity Current Ratio
1.7586
Liquidity Quick Ratio
1.019
Liquidity Cash Ratio
0.3987
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio
0.715
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio
0.409
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
22.2%
Days to sell the inventory
89
Days to collect the receivables
56
Days to pay the payables
75
Technical Analysis
SMA 20
9.091 (Uptrend 70 days)
SMA 50
8.929 (Uptrend)
SMA 100
8.609 (Uptrend)
SMA 200
8.711 (Uptrend)
MACD
0.128481 (Downtrend 8 days)
MACD Histogram
-0.014749 (Downtrend 6 days)
My notes based on 2012 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt than FY11Q1 mainly due to higher average crude palm oil (CPO) price realised of RM2,946 against RM2,511 per tonne and Fresh fruit bunches (FFB) production is higher by 8.2%, driven by both Malaysia and Indonesia of 7.3% and 10.1% respectively. Property got higher revenue due to higher percentage of property development works completed and sales in the Group’s property development townships at USJ Heights and Denai Alam
- Lower revenue and pbt than FY11Q4 mainly due to the lower average CPO price realised of RM2,946 per tonne as compared to RM3,114 per tonne in the preceding quarter. In addition, the midstream and downstream activities registered a higher loss of RM38.2 million as compared to RM27.5 million in the preceding quarter
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 0.1787*4*1.1 = 0.7863, estimate PE on current price 9.07 = 11.15(DPS 0.3)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.6098*1.1 = 0.6708, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.27/9.99 (DPS 0.3)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = (0.146+0.1365)*2 = 0.565, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.27/14.94 (DPS 0.11)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.146+0.1089)*2 = 0.5098(cpo price decreasing but offset by contracts awarded), estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.22/17.01 (DPS 0.11)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.1271*4*1.1 = 0.5592(ROE 3.5% per quarter with condition CPO price continue maintain high), estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.79/15.22 (DPS 0.1)
- No estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced
- No estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.37, estimate highest/lowest PE = 22.22/19.59 (DPS 0.22)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.34, estimate highest/lowest PE = 26.44/23.76(DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.37, estimate highest/lowest PE = 24.43/21.59 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.34, estimate highest/lowest PE = 24.35/18.91 (DPS 0.27)
Not interested unless stock buying volume stronger than selling and got strong support at 1.8 above
Comment
Revenue increased 12.7% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 87.2%, eps decreased 157.2 and was second consecutive quarter decreasing and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 248.4%, cash generated from operating more than enough to cover all expenses, weaker liquidity ratio at low level now, lower gearing ratio but still at high level now, lower inventory can indicate sales slow down
First Support Price
1.8
Second Support Price
1.6
Risk Rating
MODERATE
Research House
RHB Target Price
3.02 (2011-02-22)
OSK Target Price
2.89 (2011-02-25)
CIMB Target Price
3.74 (2011-05-27)
MIDF Target Price
2.8 (2011-05-27)
Affin Target Price
2.7 (2011-09-20)
HLG Target Price
1.34 (2011-11-25)
Maybank Target Price
1.3 (2011-11-25)
Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity
5.84%
Dividend Yield
5.56%
Profit Margin
-4.71%
Tax Rate
-
Asset Turnover
0.8024
Net Asset Value Per Share
1.4
Net Tangible Asset per share
1.38
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share
1.43
Cash Per Share
0.13
Liquidity Current Ratio
1.4253
Liquidity Quick Ratio
0.404
Liquidity Cash Ratio
0.0947
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio
1.5305
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio
0.604
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
21.0%
Days to sell the inventory
190
Days to collect the receivables
56
Days to pay the payables
31
Technical Analysis
SMA 20
1.83 (Uptrend 9 days)
SMA 50
1.844 (Downtrend)
SMA 100
1.973 (Downtrend)
SMA 200
2.345 (Downtrend)
MACD
-0.038709 (Uptrend 22 days)
MACD Histogram
0.026341 (Uptrend 15 days)
My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue mainly due to higher sales tonnage arisen from the recovery in international market and domestic demand
- Loss mainly attributable to an allowance for diminution in value of inventories of RM37.88 million to reflect the prevailing price level in view of the sharp contraction in international steel prices coupled with an unexpectedly weakened RM against USD that has resulted in recognition of an unrealized foreign exchange loss of RM22.52 million
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = (37880+22520-29476)*0.83/763444*4*0.9 = 0.121, estimate PE on current price 1.86 = 14.79(DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0477*4*0.8 = 0.1526, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.56/11.25 (DPS 0.1234)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = (0.04+0.0602)*2 = 0.2004, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.3/10.96 (DPS 0.1234)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.04*4 = 0.16, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.31/16.69 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0517*4 = 0.2068(0.0517 is average eps of Q110,Q409,Q308, due to steel price decreasing), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.91/11.9 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0591*4 = 0.2364, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.39/9.31 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.048*4 = 0.192, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.68/13.54 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0682*4 = 0.2728, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.17/8.69 (DPS 0.03)
BUY if stock price near to SMA20 and buying volume stronger than selling
Comment
Revenue increased 11% and was second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 15%, eps decreased 28.5% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 60.8%, cash generated from operating enough for financing expenses but still spent 22.4% of Group cash for investing expenses, weaker liquidity ratio but still at moderate level now, higher gearing ratio at below moderate level now, all accounting ratio are good, higher inventory can indicate Group products demand is good, plastics products division (main profit contributor) growth
First Support Price
1.18
Second Support Price
1.1
Risk Rating
MODERATE
Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity
11.61%
Dividend Yield
4.07%
Profit Margin
4.42%
Tax Rate
13.59%
Asset Turnover
1.5654
Net Asset Value Per Share
2.23
Net Tangible Asset per share
2.23
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share
0.52
Cash Per Share
0.4
Liquidity Current Ratio
2.3273
Liquidity Quick Ratio
1.3341
Liquidity Cash Ratio
0.4416
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio
0.4579
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio
0.314
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
23.9%
Days to sell the inventory
69
Days to collect the receivables
57
Days to pay the payables
51
Technical Analysis
SMA 20
1.194 (Uptrend 19 days)
SMA 50
1.164 (Uptrend)
SMA 100
1.12 (Uptrend)
SMA 200
1.096 (Uptrend)
MACD
0.024827 (Uptrend 1 day)
MACD Histogram
0.004747 (Uptrend 13 days)
My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue mainly due to the increase in export volume of the group's products (higher demand for the group's plastic packaging products)
- Higher pbt than FY10Q3 mainly due to the increase in revenue and better margin
- Lower pbt than FY11Q2 mainly due to the unrealised loss on derivatives contracts with a negative impact of RM1.43 million from the Group's hedging activities as the USD and JPY strengthen unexpectedly against the RM
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.2664, estimate PE on current price 1.23 = 4.43(DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.0603+0.0729)*2 = 0.2664, estimate highest/lowest PE = 4.73/3.3 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.2129*1.05 = 0.2235, estimate highest/lowest PE = 5.86/3.85 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.1935*1.1 = 0.2129, estimate highest/lowest PE = 4.93/4.23 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.045*4 = 0.18(profit margin around 4%), estimate highest/lowest PE = 5.67/4.89 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.04*4 = 0.16, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.38/5.19(DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1351*1.1 = 0.1486 (10% increase), estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.81/4.98 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1351 (revenue growth but cost also increasing), estimate highest/lowest PE = 5.92/5.26 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.134, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.42/5.45 (DPS 0.02)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.1138, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.73/6.63 (DPS 0.02)
11.58+0.08 = 11.66 (PE 20.0, EPS 0.5792, DPS 0.08)
Decision
Not interested unless stock price below SMA20 and buying volume stronger than selling or Bolinger upper band open higher
Comment
Revenue increased 15.3% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 31.6%, eps decreased 11% and was second consecutive quarter decreasing and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 22%, cash generated from operating not enough to cover financing expenses hence still increased borrowings and spent 4.6% of Group cash to cover other expenses, weaker liquidity ratio from high to moderate level now, higher gearing ratio at high level now, all accounting ratio are acceptable, CPO price uptrend
First Support Price
10.56
Second Support Price
10.0
Risk Rating
MODERATE
Research House
Credit Suisse Target Price
13.5 (2011-01-13)
TA Target Price
13.26 (2011-02-18)
HwangDBS Target Price
14.3 (2011-02-24)
Macquarie Target Price
11.6 (2011-04-06)
CIMB Target Price
15.4 (2011-05-27)
UOB Target Price
13.63 (2011-06-13)
RHB Target Price
13.3 (2011-07-07)
AMMB Target Price
11.85 (2011-10-21)
ECM Target Price
9.83 (2011-11-25)
Maybank Target Price
10.14 (2011-11-25)
HLG Target Price
11.19 (2012-01-12)
Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity
8.12%
Dividend Yield
0.73%
Profit Margin
27.79%
Tax Rate
24.15%
Asset Turnover
0.3496
Net Asset Value Per Share
4.56
Net Tangible Asset per share
3.2
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share
3.21
Cash Per Share
4.43
Liquidity Current Ratio
2.8679
Liquidity Quick Ratio
2.7932
Liquidity Cash Ratio
2.3015
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio
1.2584
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio
0.4
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
71.6%
Days to sell the inventory
16
Days to collect the receivables
67
Days to pay the payables
124
Technical Analysis
SMA 20
10.963 (Uptrend 7 days)
SMA 50
10.744 (Uptrend)
SMA 100
10.183 (Uptrend)
SMA 200
10.528 (Same)
MACD
0.178081 (Downtrend 9 days)
MACD Histogram
-0.022628 (Downtrend 6 days)
My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt than FY10Q3 due to:
1. Higher hold percentage in the premium players business in leisure and hospitality business in Malaysia
2. Construction revenue and profit from the progressive development of the facility at Resorts World Casino New York City
3. Higher dispatch from the Meizhou Wan power plant and compensation from the Fujian provincial government in respect of an increase in tariff rate
4. Higher palm products prices and higher FFB production
5. Gain on disposal of available-for-sale financial assets of RM221.6 million
- Lower pbt than FY11Q2 mainly due to a softening of palm products prices during the period as market sentiment was affected by global economic uncertainties and concerns over the Eurozone debt crisis and lower gain on disposal of available-for-sale financial assets
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.1609*0.9*4 = 0.5792, estimate PE on current price 10.98 = 18.82(DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.1713*0.9*4 = 0.6167(exclude RM116.7 million one time gain), estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.77/13.44 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.7531*1.1 = 0.8284, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.67/11.25 (DPS 0.078)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.14*4*1.05 = 0.588, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.91/16.59 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0945*4 = 0.3781, estimate highest/lowest PE = 31.49/26.22 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1985*4 = 0.794, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.53/11.22 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.2813*1.15 = 0.3235(15% increased), estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.54/2 (DPS 0.072)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0661*4 = 0.2644, estimate highest/lowest PE = 26.77/23.18 (DPS 0.072)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0999*4 = 0.3996, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.09/15.62 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0577*4 = 0.2308, estimate highest/lowest PE = 33.23/27.64 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0574*4 = 0.2296, estimate highest/lowest PE = 28.88/23 (DPS 0.07)
BUY if Bolinger upper band open and stock price above SMA20 or stock price below SMA20 and buying volume stronger than selling
Comment
Revenue decreased 6.8%, eps decreased 23.3%, cash generated from operating more than enough to cover all expenses, better liquidity ratio but still at low level now, higher gearing ratio at high level now, higher inventory and property development cost
First Support Price
2.43
Second Support Price
2.32
Risk Rating
MODERATE
Research House
Maybank Target Price
2.28 (2011-11-25)
HwangDBS Target Price
3.3 (2011-12-20)
MIDF Target Price
2.55 (2011-12-20)
TA Target Price
3.16 (2011-12-20)
Affin Target Price
2.79 (2011-12-27)
OSK Target Price
3.31 (2011-12-27)
HLG Target Price
3.12 (2012-01-10)
Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity
%
Dividend Yield
-
Profit Margin
9.71%
Tax Rate
20.63%
Asset Turnover
0.3617
Net Asset Value Per Share
2.18
Net Tangible Asset per share
1.92
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share
1.16
Cash Per Share
0.74
Liquidity Current Ratio
1.4763
Liquidity Quick Ratio
1.0618
Liquidity Cash Ratio
0.4253
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio
1.5671
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio
0.5766
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
38.5%
Days to sell the inventory
127
Days to collect the receivables
180
Days to pay the payables
252
Technical Analysis
SMA 20
2.497 (Uptrend 23 days)
SMA 50
2.394 (Uptrend)
SMA 100
2.268 (Uptrend)
SMA 200
Not Available
MACD
0.066312 (Downtrend 7 days)
MACD Histogram
-0.004476 (Downtrend 5 days)
My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Lower revenue than FY11Q2 mainly due to lower revenue from construction division
- Lower pbt than FY11Q2 mainly due to lower profit from property investment division, got RM12.9 million listing expenses and loss in derivatives in current quarter
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = (0.0715+0.044)*2*1.05 = 0.2426, estimate PE on current price 2.52 = 10.39(DPS 0.081)
7.58+0.165 = 7.74 (PE 14.0, EPS 0.5412, DPS 0.165)
Decision
BUY if Bolinger upper band open or stock price near to SMA20 and buying volume stronger than selling
Comment
Revenue increased 16.6% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 19.6%, eps increased 28.9% and also higher than preceding year coorresponding quarter 10.7%, cash generated from operating enough to cover all expenses, weaker liquidity ratio at low level now, higher gearing ratio at high level now, all accounting ratio are good, Automotive and Equipment division largely growth
First Support Price
6.8
Second Support Price
6.3
Risk Rating
MODERATE
Research House
BIMB Target Price
8.11 (2011-01-13)
CIMB Target Price
8 (2011-07-19)
HwangDBS Target Price
8.55 (2011-07-19)
AMMB Target Price
6.5 (2011-07-29)
Kenanga Target Price
7.06 (2011-08-22)
TA Target Price
6.36 (2011-08-22)
MIDF Target Price
7 (2011-09-09)
OSK Target Price
6.29 (2011-10-12)
ECM Target Price
7 (2011-11-25)
UOB Target Price
6.9 (2011-11-25)
Maybank Target Price
6.1 (2011-12-23)
Affin Target Price
7.25 (2012-01-12)
RHB Target Price
6.2 (2012-01-18)
Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity
8.55%
Dividend Yield
4.23%
Profit Margin
11.22%
Tax Rate
27.47%
Asset Turnover
1.279
Net Asset Value Per Share
3.7
Net Tangible Asset per share
3.48
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share
1.94
Cash Per Share
2.28
Liquidity Current Ratio
1.7738
Liquidity Quick Ratio
1.2879
Liquidity Cash Ratio
0.8831
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio
1.172
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio
0.4781
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
17.2%
Days to sell the inventory
43
Days to collect the receivables
23
Days to pay the payables
60
Technical Analysis
SMA 20
6.834 (Uptrend 6 days)
SMA 50
6.443 (Uptrend)
SMA 100
6.418 (Uptrend)
SMA 200
6.512 (Uptrend)
MACD
0.095778 (Uptrend 4 days)
MACD Histogram
0.053385 (Uptrend 18 days)
My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue due to swift production of Automotive and Equipment segments recovery from the impact of the Japan tsunami, premium jack-up rigs, Naga 2 and Naga 3, coupled with the higher day-rate from Naga 1, a semi-submersible rig, contributed to the higher revenue in the oil & gas segment
- Higher pbt due to higher sales of both Toyota and Perodua vehicles and favourable exchange rate for the USD
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = (0.1126+0.1451)*2*1.05 = 0.5412, estimate PE on current price 7.1 = 12.81(DPS 0.165)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = (0.1126+0.1306)*2 = 0.4864, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.16/12.28 (DPS 0.165)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1306*4*1.1 = 0.5746, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.62/11.23 (DPS 0.3)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.4486*1.1 = 0.4935, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.45/13.48 (DPS 0.3)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1311*4*0.9 = 0.472, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.65/13.57 (DPS 0.335)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1517*4*0.9 = 0.5461(0.1517 is average of recent 2Q eps, deduct 10% risk adjustment), estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.43/11.3 (DPS 0.24)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1034*4 = 0.4136(0.1034 is average of recent 2Q eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.11/14.24 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1016*4 = 0.4064(0.1016 is average of recent 2Q eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.97/14.54 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0927*4 = 0.3708(0.0927 is average of recent 2Q eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.94/15.29 (DPS 0.23)
TDM BERHAD is a Malaysia-based investment holding company engaged in the provision of management services to its subsidiaries. The Company’s segments include plantation, food, health and others. Plantation involves cultivation of oil palms, sale of fresh fruit bunches and other related products. Food involves integrated poultry farming and processing of related products. Health includes provision of consultancy and operations of specialist medical centers. Others include investment holding, property development and project management. The Company’s subsidiaries include TDM Plantation Sdn. Bhd., Kumpulan Ladang-Ladang Trengganu Sdn. Bhd., TDM Trading Sdn. Bhd., TDM Capital Sdn. Bhd. and Kuantan Medical Centre Sdn. Bhd.
BUY if Bolinger upper band open or when stock price near to SMA20 and got stronger buying volume than selling
Comment
Revenue increased 19.3% and was second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 46.2%, eps increased 58.4% and was second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 69.2%, cash generated from operating more than enough to cover all expenses, stronger liquidity ratio but still at low level now, lower gearing ratio at below moderate level now, payables ratio still slightly high, cpo price increasing
First Support Price
3.8
Second Support Price
3.6
Risk Rating
MODERATE
Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity
18.16%
Dividend Yield
4.16%
Profit Margin
47.45%
Tax Rate
27.39%
Asset Turnover
0.4971
Net Asset Value Per Share
3.4
Net Tangible Asset per share
3.36
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share
0.98
Cash Per Share
0.89
Liquidity Current Ratio
1.7394
Liquidity Quick Ratio
1.6122
Liquidity Cash Ratio
1.2302
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio
0.2695
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio
0.2082
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
24.8%
Days to sell the inventory
25
Days to collect the receivables
38
Days to pay the payables
175
Technical Analysis
SMA 20
3.795 (Uptrend 61 days)
SMA 50
3.584 (Uptrend)
SMA 100
3.235 (Uptrend)
SMA 200
3.081 (Uptrend)
MACD
0.178849 (Uptrend 1 day)
MACD Histogram
-0.012144 (Downtrend 9 days)
My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt mainly due to double digit growth in production of CPO & PK and higher average prices of CPO & PK (vs FY11Q2 got lower average prices of CPO & PK) and increase number of patients being treated at hospitals and recently acquired TDMC Hospital Sdn. Bhd. contributed RM1.9 million in additional revenue and increase in average prices of livebird
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.6207*1.1 = 0.6828, estimate PE on current price 3.97 = 5.57(DPS 0.17)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.1258+0.1354)*2*0.9 = 0.4702, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.98/5.17 (DPS 0.17)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.1258*0.85*4 = 0.4277, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.13/5.96 (DPS 0.17)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.4184*0.9 = 0.3766, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.03/6.63 (DPS 0.135)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.4, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.23/5.75 (DPS 0.13)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0933*4 = 0.3732(0.0933 is average of eps in FY10Q1 and FY09Q4), estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.54/4.82 (DPS 0.13)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0889*4 = 0.3556, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.52/4.16 (DPS 0.13)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.2503*1.2 = 0.3004, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.23/5.13 (DPS 0.13)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = (0.0923+0.0418+0.019)/3*4*1.2 = 0.245, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.37/5.51 (DPS 0.14)
Liabilities directly associated with assets classified as held for sale (L-1)
Loans & borrowings (L-1)
Retirement benefit obligations (L-1)
Trade and other payables (L-1)
Minority interest (M-1)
2011
3
135
399783
8888
4700
-
329293
214290
11940
35
22152
54565
-
42252
422
827
15178
-
3976
1316
77
153642
20331
2011
2
151
384974
7425
4700
-
328184
165012
-
258
21832
66059
-
44485
1809
827
3056
-
-
7782
160
159616
19129
2011
1
141
373556
1468
4700
-
298697
208912
-
225
18834
59027
-
42537
742
833
1187
-
-
3333
161
150831
18779
2010
4
148
367624
1468
4700
-
296458
176702
-
56
15918
65948
-
42489
1520
833
6275
-
-
3245
160
147146
18219
2010
3
-
360028
1070
4840
-
274873
122333
-
-
21882
91712
-
42021
1923
413
844
-
-
2922
-
139962
18065
2010
2
-
359242
1070
4836
-
270985
103457
-
-
19305
84105
-
41946
2230
1469
2219
-
-
2902
-
137736
17501
2010
1
-
358568
1070
4847
-
269879
138555
-
-
19116
79268
-
41662
2581
1509
4253
-
-
2601
-
150604
17280
2009
4
-
358108
1070
4810
-
271595
107020
-
-
14522
81535
-
41188
2686
1794
2441
-
-
3299
-
139384
16841
2009
3
-
356760
1070
4809
170375
101414
114634
-
-
18341
62213
-
40942
3795
1857
192
-
-
2360
-
155615
16688
2009
2
-
355577
1070
4809
171554
97664
134439
-
-
21336
83897
-
40593
4107
1635
1597
-
-
2642
-
191592
16256
2009
1
-
355254
1070
4809
171769
99700
133363
-
-
16392
72204
-
40594
3031
1655
4348
-
-
2610
-
183908
16020
2008
4
-
354912
1070
4809
172746
93846
131025
-
-
33123
69831
3500
40772
2851
1641
4507
-
-
3374
-
190971
15781
2008
3
-
353861
1216
4810
177006
88057
107194
-
-
22772
140372
24500
27790
1353
1701
41965
-
-
3413
-
187162
15576
2008
2
-
353804
138
4810
175261
83778
124632
-
-
15718
104636
24500
28419
1370
1711
36336
-
-
3246
-
189411
14905
2008
1
-
353561
138
4810
173235
83251
95531
-
-
13079
97118
39500
28587
1414
1730
20815
-
-
6430
-
173302
14422
2007
4
-
353147
-
4809
173748
81742
101786
-
-
8928
66806
39500
31013
1987
1723
21038
-
-
12727
-
154309
15853
2007
3
-
363896
-
4810
164482
76062
98539
-
-
8854
90392
84500
23203
1266
1721
2415
4311
-
22764
-
145149
8745
2007
2
-
360921
-
4810
168662
72637
79931
-
-
5979
72192
98766
23203
1266
1737
6398
-
-
5677
-
126807
8308
2007
1
-
360818
-
4810
-
244997
73812
-
-
5806
69181
66500
24240
1720
1759
5163
-
-
8300
-
155329
8111
2006
4
-
360763
-
4647
169263
74320
81808
-
-
6343
84484
78500
27127
1829
1759
1716
-
-
7272
-
170999
8009
Financial Quarter Income Statement
year
qrt
Revenue
Income tax expense
Cost of sales
Finance/interest costs
Other income
Administrative/Operating expenses
Minority interest
Selling and distribution costs
Discontinued operation
Other expenses
2011
3
151506
19694
56674
81
3788
23412
729
2435
865
1660
2011
2
126984
11759
66479
197
3831
17435
350
1783
-
816
2011
1
105792
8571
53511
56
1625
13266
560
1433
-
979
2010
4
135550
17076
59074
68
4076
26950
675
2320
-
248
2010
3
110136
7949
55793
76
1507
16372
564
2546
-
82
2010
2
85246
3969
53359
22
868
14256
222
1578
-
38
2010
1
89924
6920
50284
160
2071
12818
439
1842
-
69
2009
4
97508
8660
48894
76
3313
17313
259
2074
-
2223
2009
3
95286
7478
53809
113
1101
12158
432
1960
-
235
2009
2
75081
3265
51047
98
1265
11237
239
1114
-
206
2009
1
67717
2136
48081
98
443
11673
239
1636
-
184
2008
4
94148
9198
48800
89
3918
21286
154
3092
-
211
2008
3
123039
12991
55170
183
1464
16053
671
2445
-
1145
2008
2
87959
10233
45216
152
7161
11505
555
1927
-
132
2008
1
88274
7963
42935
179
883
10320
555
4981
-
517
2007
4
109404
10307
43040
229
5032
26146
825
9188
-
5398
2007
3
76943
8338
-
25
8594
52435
436
-
-
-
2007
2
46345
1129
-
93
2389
42647
197
-
-
-
2007
1
34435
439
-
155
2694
36472
1
-
-
-
2006
4
68429
3477
-
126
8877
61667
385
-
-
-
Financial Quarter Segments Revenue
year
qrt
Others
Plantation
Food
Health
2011
3
-
128658
-
22848
2011
2
-
94126
9533
23325
2011
1
-
84284
2780
18728
2010
4
17212
91680
5586
21072
2010
3
11648
73156
6488
18844
2010
2
-
59135
6629
19292
2010
1
-
83054
7441
18699
2009
4
11391
63263
6893
15961
2009
3
10424
59635
8331
16896
2009
2
8309
42550
6959
17263
2009
1
7382
38999
6093
15243
2008
4
11210
64714
3849
14375
2008
3
13727
86219
7625
15468
2008
2
2982
64215
5967
14795
2008
1
8452
60735
5727
13360
2007
4
5741
88786
3924
10953
2007
3
5471
54959
4917
11596
2007
2
2721
28151
4966
10507
2007
1
1156
18765
5146
9368
2006
4
9128
42319
8641
8341
Financial Quarter Segments Profit
year
qrt
Others
Plantation
Food
Health
2011
3
49
67969
-
3014
2011
2
189
39932
957
3405
2011
1
191
36162
174
1645
2010
4
642
48084
1134
3374
2010
3
3694
30406
378
2296
2010
2
25
14457
136
2565
2010
1
1
24934
652
2539
2009
4
614
28421
457
1977
2009
3
4775
20826
573
1938
2009
2
1838
8383
172
2251
2009
1
966
4428
309
1403
2008
4
342
23782
765
1407
2008
3
8329
39045
500
1633
2008
2
8753
26665
890
1660
2008
1
4993
24549
723
1406
2007
4
10283
11953
2506
641
2007
3
4434
28201
254
696
2007
2
205
5061
238
966
2007
1
607
742
278
645
2006
4
1461
16857
2191
614
Monthly Business Data
year
mth
Crude Palm Oil
Fresh Fruits Bunches
Palm Kernel
2011
12
9777.3
56910.86
2872.58
2011
11
10369.77
59651.27
2754.53
2011
10
13307.09
76352.4
3556.51
2011
9
12473
76509.11
3099.01
2011
8
11658.09
58512.85
2833.4
2011
7
11744.5
59638.2
2573.18
2011
6
8898.89
47102.13
1920.58
2011
5
8995.23
45327.78
2196.47
2011
4
6403.81
37360.15
1726.89
2011
3
7578.57
39976.99
2024.48
2011
2
6730.51
34818.25
1858.43
2011
1
5977.23
33604.87
1815.54
2010
12
9396.64
49073.09
2553.31
2010
11
11638.44
61688.55
3216.12
2010
10
12293.02
62127.16
3314.29
2010
9
10331.28
54109.47
2729.32
2010
8
10275.38
51259.89
2728.13
2010
7
10042.88
51319.65
2560.94
2010
6
8070.13
41071.87
1950.17
2010
5
6474.18
31569.52
1565.69
2010
4
6368.82
32184.92
1655.95
2010
3
8190
40207.72
2179.95
2010
2
6871.12
33745.69
1816.3
2010
1
8156.89
42267.42
2271.24
2009
12
8149.9
55344.91
2510.45
2009
11
8694.41
52210.92
2463.83
2009
10
12721.7
68808.91
3346.31
2009
9
10200.47
55390.11
2607.77
2009
8
10208.3
49391.64
2543.94
2009
7
8475.67
40570.48
2030.03
2009
6
7245.52
33989.88
1683.06
2009
5
6963.56
33989.76
1786.71
2009
4
6754.13
33314.14
1819.6
2009
3
6992.26
35396.74
1952.66
2009
2
6250.07
30896.16
1728.07
2009
1
7071.56
40453.96
2044.42
Short form reference a_date = announcement date, yr = financial year end, qrt = quarter h_price = stock highest price during the quarter, l_price = stock lowest price during the quarter div = dividend recommend or declare in the quarter, roe = return on equity c_roe = cumulative of return on equity during the financial year rev = revenue in the current quarter, c_rev = cumulative of revenue during the financial year pbt = profit before tax in the current quarter, c_pbt = cumulative of profit before tax during the financial year eps = earnings per share in the current quarter, c_eps = cumulative of earnings per share during the financial year asset = total asset, liab = total liability, mino = minority interest, equi = total equity cfo = net cash flow from operating activities, cfi = net cash flow from investing activities cff = net cash flow from financing activities, cash = cash and cash equivalents as at beginning of financial year final = cash and cash equivalents as at current financial period ended share = diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares c_share = cumulative of diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares during the financial year m_cap = market capital at announcement date of quarterly report, date = current financial period ended date prof_m = profit margin, vat = income tax rate, pe = price earning per share ratio of recent four quarter navps = net asset value per share, ntaps = net tangible asset per share, cps = cash per share l_cur = liquidity current ratio, l_qui = liquidity quick ratio, l_cash = liquidity cash ratio g_de = gearing debt to equity ratio, g_da = gearing debt to assets ratio avg_w = working capital per thousand Ringgit sale inv_d = days to sell the inventory, rec_d = days to collect the receivables pay_d = days to pay the payables
